SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO, California, September 1, 2026, 08:32 PDT — Alumis shares dropped 59% after the company’s key lupus trial failed, erasing $1.67 billion in value.
- Alumis was down 59.2% at $8.89 as of 11:32:55 EDT.
- The LUMUS study, involving 408 patients, did not achieve its main or secondary endpoints overall.
- Cash and short-term investments stood at $502.3 million as of June 30.
Shares of Alumis Inc. NASDAQ:ALMS dropped 59.2% to $8.89 after the company reported its lupus trial failed to meet its main and secondary endpoints. As of 11:32:55 EDT, trading volume was 13.97 million shares.
The decline wiped out roughly $1.67 billion in implied equity value. This calculation is based on 129.4 million shares outstanding as of August 6. The decrease amounted to 3.3 times the most recent cash and short-term investments reported by Alumis.
Alumis intraday price reset
Source: Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq real-time price and five-minute closes. Previous close: $21.81.
The market’s response extends beyond a single failed indication. Envudeucitinib is still Alumis’ main candidate for psoriasis and lupus. The share decline reflects a greater discount for trial design and anticipated development costs.
LUMUS included 408 adults randomized to three different doses or placebo over a 48-week period. The main endpoint was BICLA response at Week 48. According to the trial listing, there are 14 secondary outcome measures.
Overall Week 48 response rates
Percent of patients responding. The company declared the primary and secondary endpoints missed overall.
BICLA primary endpoint
SRI-4 secondary measure
Source: Alumis September 1 SEC presentation. Company-reported imputed response rates and p-values.
BICLA response was 42.2% with 20 mg administered twice daily, while placebo showed a 35.7% response. However, the company said it did not achieve the primary endpoint, as p-values for all active doses ranged between 0.3455 and 0.5018.
SRI-4 results showed a higher nominal performance, with the 20 mg once-daily group achieving 60.9%, compared to 40.4% for placebo. However, Alumis stated the trial did not meet its primary or secondary endpoints overall.
The interferon biomarker split
BICLA response at Week 48. Percent responding in prespecified baseline subgroups.
IFNGS-high
IFNGS-low
Source: Alumis September 1 SEC presentation. Subgroup analyses are not the overall primary result.
The breakdown by biomarker accounts for the rest of management’s argument. About 60% of enrolled participants were IFNGS-high, compared to the approximately 70% figure cited by Alumis. For these patients, the BICLA response was 52.6% at the 40 mg twice-daily dose, compared to 28.6% with placebo.
The IFNGS-low outcome showed an opposite trend. The placebo group achieved a 47.5% result, whereas the high-dose cohort reached 24.4%. This shift underscores the importance of patient selection for the design of any Phase 3 study.
Chief Medical Officer Jörn Drappa stated: “We plan to engage regulators to discuss Phase 3 development for envudeucitinib.” The company identified end-of-Phase 2 meetings with the FDA and EMA as upcoming steps. SEC release
The selloff was not due to safety concerns. Alumis did not detect any new safety signals and reported no significant cardiovascular events or cases of malignancy in any group. The 40 mg twice-daily regimen delivered the highest interferon-pathway suppression.
The scale of the valuation reset
USD millions. Equity values use $8.89, the $21.81 previous close and 129.435 million shares outstanding.
Sources: Yahoo Finance price at 11:32:55 EDT; Alumis Q2 Form 10-Q. Market values and Q2 cash use are calculated.
As of June 30, Alumis reported $502.3 million in cash and short-term investments. Research expenses for the second quarter totaled $85.3 million. According to the six-month filing, operating cash outflow was approximately $81.5 million.
Alumis had an implied market value of roughly $1.15 billion at $8.89, which is 2.3 times its cash on hand in June. This suggests that the market is maintaining value for psoriasis and additional pipeline assets, even as much of the anticipated value from lupus has been discounted.
The next verified product catalyst is located beyond lupus. Alumis intends to file a new drug application for psoriasis in the fourth quarter of 2026. Regulators have not yet approved a Phase 3 pathway for lupus.
Risks: The IFNGS-high subgroup might not be observed in a bigger trial. Authorities may demand a wider patient group or an additional Phase 2 trial. Ongoing research expenses may further increase the risk of dilution.
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