Amazon shares seen rising 12% as higher AWS profit share allays $220 billion AI investment concerns

Amazon shares seen rising 12% as higher AWS profit share allays $220 billion AI investment concerns

NEW YORK, July 31, 2026, 05:11 EDT — U.S. stocks move in premarket trading

  • Amazon.com, Inc. was quoted preliminarily at $264.00, a rise of 12.1%, as of 04:49 EDT.
  • AWS accounted for 60.5% of group operating profit, while contributing 21.1% of total sales.
  • An initial estimate suggests that if the increase persists, approximately $307 billion could be added to equity value.

Amazon shares were pointed up 12.1% at $264.00 ahead of Friday’s opening bell, after AWS reported its strongest growth in 18 quarters. The advance came after a 3.9% increase on Thursday.

Stock chart for NASDAQ:AMZN

Initial estimates suggest the implied rise in equity value is close to $307 billion. This figure is roughly 15 times greater than Amazon’s $20 billion boost in capital expenditures. It does not indicate a return, but reflects the magnitude of investor relief.

Market indicatorPrevious benchmarkLatestChange
Amazon stock price$235.50 Thursday close$264.00 premarket+12.1%
2026 capex target$200 billion$220 billion+$20 billion
AWS order backlog$364 billion, previous quarter$496 billion+36.3%
Trailing free cash flow$18.2 billion inflow, previous year$7.6 billion outflowDecreased by $25.8 billion

Figures for premarket price and equity value are initial estimates. Benchmarks rely on varying reference periods.

The reassurance is due to AWS’s operating profit strength rather than overall net income. AWS accounted for 60.5% of operating profit while making up just 21.1% of total sales—a concentration that supports ongoing investment.

Sales for the second quarter increased 19.6% to $200.6 billion. Operating income was up 43.2% at $27.5 billion. AWS saw a 63.6% jump in operating income.

Second-quarter metric20252026Change
Net sales$167.702 billion$200.606 billion+19.6%
Operating income$19.171 billion$27.461 billion+43.2%
AWS sales$30.873 billion$42.232 billion+36.8%
AWS operating income$10.160 billion$16.621 billion+63.6%

The percentages have been derived from figures published by Amazon.

Significantly, AWS generated an additional $11.36 billion in revenue compared with the previous year while increasing operating profit by $6.46 billion. The resulting incremental margin was about 57%.

Second-quarter segmentRevenueRevenue shareOperating incomeProfit shareOperating margin
North America$116.177 billion57.9%$9.123 billion33.2%7.9%
International$42.197 billion21.0%$1.717 billion6.3%4.1%
AWS$42.232 billion21.1%$16.621 billion60.5%39.4%
Consolidated$200.606 billion100.0%$27.461 billion100.0%13.7%

Reported segment results form the basis for calculating shares and margins.

Chief Executive Andy Jassy said, “AWS is booming.” He noted that Amazon is still running short on capacity even with increased investment. The limiting factor continues to be demand. Amazon

AWS backlog rose 36.3% from the previous quarter to reach $496 billion. The majority of compute capacity for 2027 was already reserved by customers, with some commitments extending into 2028.

The charges come upfront. Free cash flow after expenses moved to a $7.6 billion outflow. Spending on property and equipment increased to $66.1 billion, largely driven by artificial intelligence investments.

Amazon begins its data center investments about two years ahead of launch. Jassy stated that the payback period for AI servers is usually less than three years, with revenue streams starting afterwards.

Headline net income provided limited insight, coming in at $62.6 billion, though this figure factored in $53.4 billion of non-operating pre-tax income. According to Amazon, the majority of the gain was attributed to its investment in Anthropic.

The remainder of Amazon’s business posted gains as well. Sales in North America climbed 16%, with international sales up 15%. Advertising revenue grew 26% to $19.8 billion.

The cloud performance reflected faster growth seen across the industry. Microsoft Corp. recorded a 43% rise in Azure, while Alphabet Inc. reported Google Cloud growth of 82%.

Company and cloud measureRevenue growthDisclosed revenueOperating marginFirst material stock reaction
Amazon — AWS36.7%$42.2 billion39.4%+12.1% premarket, initial
Microsoft — Azure and other cloud services43%Not disclosedNot disclosed+15.5% during subsequent session
Alphabet — Google Cloud82%$24.8 billion35.6%Roughly -3% post close

Definitions of cloud and trading periods vary, making direct comparison between rows not possible.

“There were concerns about market share losses on AWS, but that’s been put to bed now,” said Dan Morgan, portfolio manager at Synovus Trust. All three platforms are seeing increased demand. Amazon’s advantage lies in turning profit. Reuters

Amazon projected third-quarter revenue between $197 billion and $202 billion, suggesting an increase of 9% to 12%. The company’s operating income outlook stood at $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion.

Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 1.1% in premarket trading, while S&P 500 futures increased by 0.45%. Amazon’s earnings supported gains in technology stocks.

Risks: Premarket gains could unwind once the main session starts. Free cash flow stays in the red, and memory-chip expenses have driven up projected outlays. Net income was impacted by equity gains, while third-quarter revenue growth is set to decelerate.

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Further analysis

What is driving Amazon shares higher today, and which price level is significant?

Amazon ended Thursday at $235.50, rising 3.9% ahead of its earnings report. In premarket trading early Friday, July 31, the stock traded around $263.50, up about 11.9%. The increase came after AWS reported faster growth and Amazon posted better-than-expected quarterly revenue. Premarket shares remained volatile prior to the Nasdaq’s regular open later Friday. Reuters

Were Amazon’s second-quarter results above forecasts for the right reasons?

Revenue climbed 20% to $200.6 billion, beating analysts’ forecast of about $196.5 billion. Operating income increased 43% year-on-year to $27.5 billion. Reported earnings per share came in at $5.75, well ahead of Wall Street’s $1.82 consensus view. Earnings were boosted by a $53.4 billion pre-tax gain from Anthropic, making core operating profit a more accurate indicator of fundamental performance. Amazon

Is AWS expanding at a pace that can sustain Amazon’s AI ambitions?

AWS revenue rose 37% to $42.2 billion, marking its fastest growth in 18 quarters. Analysts polled by LSEG had forecast a 31.21% increase, making the beat significant. AWS posted operating income of $16.6 billion, with a 39.4% margin. The contract backlog expanded to $496 billion from $364 billion in a single quarter. Executives say most of the 2027 computing capacity has already been booked. That underpins forward growth, though the exact timing of delivery and cost levels remains uncertain. Amazon

Is Amazon financially equipped to handle its planned $220 billion in capital expenditures?

Management increased its 2026 spending forecast by 10%, boosting the projection from $200 billion to $220 billion. Net capital purchases in the trailing period reached $169.0 billion, an increase of 64% from a year earlier. Operating cash flow stood at $161.4 billion, resulting in negative free cash flow of $7.6 billion. Long-term debt was nearly twice as high at $128.9 billion as of June 30. Cash and marketable securities remained about $123.0 billion at quarter’s end. The balance sheet is sufficient to support this, but cash conversion requires improvement. Amazon

Is third-quarter guidance indicating an actual deceleration?

Amazon forecasts revenue in the range of $197 billion to $202 billion, representing growth between 9% and 12%. With Prime Day moving to Q2, year-on-year comparisons for Q3 are lower by about four percentage points. Stripping out this factor, core growth would be close to 13%-16%. The company projects operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion for the next quarter. The midpoint, $24.5 billion, indicates a rise of around 41% from a year earlier. Amazon

Is retail and advertising driving increased profitability?

Sales in the North American division increased by 16% to $116.2 billion in Q2, and its operating income advanced 21% to $9.1 billion. International segment sales were up 15%, with operating income totaling $1.7 billion. Advertising revenue jumped 26% to $19.8 billion, outpacing overall growth. Services for third-party sellers brought in $46.8 billion, an increase of 16% from a year ago. AWS contributed about 61% of Amazon’s total operating income. Amazon

To what extent did Anthropic impact Amazon’s stated earnings?

Net income for Q2 rose to $62.6 billion from $18.2 billion, propelled by a $53.4 billion pre-tax gain, primarily from Amazon’s investment in Anthropic. Most of this gain is unrealized and could shift if the valuation changes. Trailing EPS climbed to $12.44, but this overstates sustainable profitability. Investors are advised to focus on operating income and free cash flow. Amazon

Following today’s surge, what does Wall Street’s price target suggest?

The Wall Street Journal lists an average target price of $317.51 and a median of $320. Forecasts for the next twelve months range from $230 to $370 per share. With the premarket price at $263.50, the average target indicates a potential gain of around 20.5%. The lowest estimate suggests a possible downside of about 12.7% from premarket, while the highest target points to a potential increase of roughly 40.4%. Results came out Thursday night, so further analyst updates are expected. The Wall Street Journal

How significantly could Amazon impact key U.S. indexes today?

SPY mirrors the S&P 500, while QQQ mirrors the Nasdaq-100. Amazon accounted for 3.54% of SPY and 4.19% of QQQ most recently. An 11.9% move in Amazon adds about 0.42 percentage points to SPY and around 0.50 percentage points to QQQ, based on direct calculations before considering any changes in weights or other stocks. Nasdaq futures climbed 1.2% early Friday as AI optimism resurfaced. Schwab Wall Street

Which figures could undermine the bullish outlook next?

Should AWS growth slow to the 31.2% consensus, momentum would decline. Ongoing negative free cash flow would add to worries about spending. Revenue for Q3 below $197 billion would fall short of management’s projected range. If operating income drops under $22.5 billion, it would be below Amazon’s guidance. North American margin decreasing from 7.9% would point to a slide in retail strength. Sustained growth and better cash generation are now essential for the bull case. Reuters

Jerzy Lewandowski is a senior markets editor at TS2.tech covering stocks, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and global financial markets. He studied economics at the University of Warsaw and previously worked in investment analysis before moving into financial journalism. His daily coverage focuses on the trends and events that matter most to investors worldwide. Follow Jerzy Lewandowski on Google News.

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