NEW YORK, July 7, 2026, 05:04 EDT
- Nasdaq is in pre-market now. July 7 isn’t shown as a 2026 U.S. stock-market holiday. The schedule lists July 3 as a closure for Independence Day.
- American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL was last seen at $17.75 in pre-market trading, off around 0.9%. The U.S. Global Jets ETF NYSEARCA:JETS gained 0.4%.
- The 2026 valuation on the stock seems high compared to today’s EPS forecasts, though the 2027 numbers look better.
American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL slipped in premarket trading Tuesday, diverging from a rising airline index. The main issue for investors ahead of Q2 results is whether shares have already priced in lower fuel costs.
American is at $17.75, trading at around 49 times Barron’s 2026 average EPS guess of 36 cents, by current data. Using the 2027 average EPS of $2.47, that drops to a multiple of roughly 7.2. That gap is the trade. The stock is no longer just about this year’s fuel shock. The bet is now on whether lower fuel prices, steady fares, and tight capacity can bring earnings forward.
Market screens show American trading at a much higher trailing P/E than Delta Air Lines Inc. NYSE:DAL and United Airlines Holdings Inc. NASDAQ:UAL. That’s despite American having the lowest equity value among the three.
| Company | Latest price | Market value | Trailing P/E | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL | $17.75 | $11.74 bln | 57.3 | $0.31 |
| Delta Air Lines Inc. NYSE:DAL | $91.68 | $60.23 bln | 13.4 | $6.85 |
| United Airlines Holdings Inc. NASDAQ:UAL | $132.50 | $43.01 bln | 11.9 | $11.18 |
| Southwest Airlines Co. NYSE:LUV | $50.81 | $25.56 bln | 33.9 | $1.50 |
Market data are shown as delayed quotes.
The numbers in the table make clear American stands out as a higher-beta earnings call next to bigger network peers.
| Measure | Current forecast | Investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 adjusted EPS, company guide | -$0.20 to +$0.20 | Still possible to hit break-even for the quarter |
| Q2 2026 EPS, analyst average | -$0.01 | Sits close to the middle of company guidance |
| FY 2026 adjusted EPS, company guide | -$0.40 to +$1.10 | Wide range means fuel impact is the key factor |
| FY 2026 EPS, analyst average | $0.36 | Was -$0.08 a month ago, now moved up |
| FY 2027 EPS, analyst average | $2.47 | Central to bulls arguing AAL is cheap |
| Average price target | $18.63 | Roughly 5% above where AAL trades now |
American’s latest guidance comes from its April results release. Analyst estimates and targets used here are from Barron’s.
Fuel costs are why the table matters here. The Wall Street Journal said Monday night that jet-fuel prices have dropped 40% from their peak in April. Still, fares probably won’t drop as quickly because travelers are still facing higher prices.
American could see bigger earnings gains from lower fuel than rivals. Jefferies said a 5% cut in its $3/gallon 2027 fuel-cost call could boost American’s forecast EPS by up to 50%. That compares with 10% to 15% for Delta, Southwest and United, according to Jefferies.
Lower fuel prices only boost the stock if fares stick. Dudley Shanley at Goodbody told Reuters fare cuts depend on how strong the consumer is. American CEO Robert Isom was upbeat in April: “Demand for our product is growing.” Reuters
American’s outlook still kept fuel at around $4.00 a gallon in the second quarter and only expected to offset some of the higher costs. The airline stuck with its forecast for second-quarter revenue up 13.5% to 16.5% and adjusted EPS in a range from a 20-cent loss to a 20-cent gain.
Debt is another big factor here. American finished the first quarter with $34.7 billion in total debt, compared to an equity market cap of $11.74 billion. That means debt is almost three times its market value. With numbers like these, even minor swings in fuel costs, ticket prices or demand can hit the stock.
Airline stocks mostly moved lower Monday, even as the S&P 500 added 0.72%. Southwest finished up 1.11%, but American slipped 0.95%. Delta was off 1.15% and United shed 0.62%.
American is set to report second-quarter numbers on July 16. If results land near the top of guidance or if fuel recapture improves, investors may start looking to 2027 estimates. A miss keeps shares near the $18.63 average price target for now, with this year’s consensus at 36 cents a share.
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