NEW YORK, March 13, 2026, 09:09 EDT
Shares of American Airlines Group (AAL) slipped 4.4% to $10.55 by Friday’s close, following Brent crude’s finish at $100.46 a barrel on Thursday. That renewed uptick in fuel prices is weighing on the airline, leaving investors to navigate another spike in costs.
Here’s the kicker: American barely hedges its fuel anymore—those are the contracts airlines use to shield themselves from swings in energy prices—right when jet-fuel prices are anything but stable. A Reuters piece last week flagged that if current prices stick, Delta, American, Southwest, and United may be staring at a combined $5.8 billion in additional fuel expenses. For American, each one-cent bump per gallon piles about $50 million onto the yearly tab.
The model has some breathing room. According to a Reuters review out Friday, American pulled in $6.2 billion for 2025 from co-brand credit-card and other partners — that’s close to four times its adjusted operating income. The cash provides a more stable revenue source just as pressure builds on ticket margins.
American heads into this fuel shock with a thinner cushion than Delta Air Lines or United Airlines. Adjusted pretax profit for American in 2025 came in at $352 million, according to Reuters—Delta posted about $5 billion, United $4.6 billion. Chief Executive Robert Isom, addressing staff, made it clear: “2026 can’t just feel different. It has to be different.” Reuters
Fuel markets are tangled, with new commentary highlighting the complications. Nathan Gee, who leads Asia Pacific transportation research at Bank of America, put it bluntly: the recent surge in refining margins is “where everyone is less protected.” Even operators with crude hedges aren’t insulated when jet-fuel prices take off. Reuters
Oil prices got a brief pullback Friday, with Brent sliding 0.9% to $99.54 a barrel. Washington’s move to calm supply fears, plus news of an Indian tanker clearing the Strait of Hormuz, helped nudge prices lower. Still, the contract was staring at an 8% gain for the week. “This dip should be viewed as short-lived,” PVM analyst Tamas Varga said. Reuters
Fresh operational stress is mounting. On Thursday, Chicago pushed back against the Federal Aviation Administration’s proposal to reduce O’Hare’s summer flights below 2,800 per day—a move with high stakes for American, currently battling United over gates and schedules at the crucial hub. According to Reuters, American is aiming for 526 daily departures from O’Hare this summer, up from last year’s 484.
The O’Hare dispute surfaces just as American Airlines, back in January, projected 2026 adjusted earnings in the $1.70 to $2.70 per-share range—topping Wall Street’s then-estimates. The airline also called out firmer premium demand, a pickup in corporate travel, and more loyalty revenue.
Things are far from straightforward from this point. If oil prices drop quickly and fare hikes stick, some strain could lift. Airlines across Asia and Europe have started bumping up ticket prices, tacking on surcharges, or pares schedules to shore up margins. But jet fuel holding at these levels keeps American among the more vulnerable players. Reuters, referencing Jefferies, put numbers to it: a 5% fuel cost jump could slash the airline’s 2026 earnings by roughly 35%.
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