Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) Shares Hover at $303 as Tariff Refunds Account for 85% of Q3 Earnings Beat

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) Shares Hover at $303 as Tariff Refunds Account for 85% of Q3 Earnings Beat

NEW YORK, August 4, 2026, 07:00 EDT — U.S. premarket trading update.

  • Apple ended Monday at $303.42, marking a four-day losing streak that wiped roughly $503 billion from its market capitalization.
  • Refunds from tariffs made up $0.11 per share out of the $0.13 headline earnings beat.
  • Among major mega-cap peers, Apple continued to hold the largest trailing earnings multiple.

Apple Inc. traded lower in Tuesday’s premarket, following a fourth consecutive session of declines. On Monday, the stock dropped 1.78% to close at $303.42, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% that day.

Stock chart for NASDAQ:AAPL

The divergence caused Apple to fall behind Nvidia Corp. and Alphabet Inc. in market capitalization. It also intensified a key question among investors: how sustainable was Apple’s earnings outperformance?

Apple posted fiscal third-quarter earnings of $2.02 per share, surpassing the analyst consensus of $1.89. The company’s $0.13 earnings beat was aided by $0.11 in tariff refunds, which accounted for approximately 85% of the reported earnings difference.

Fiscal Q3 metricReportedEx-refund calculationBenchmark
Diluted EPS$2.02$1.91$1.89 consensus
EPS beat6.9%1.1%
Gross margin50.1%48.1%46.5% prior year

The ex-refund estimates derive from Apple’s reported $0.11 EPS gain and a gross-margin boost of about two percentage points. Apple has not released adjusted EPS.

Based on those figures, Apple surpassed consensus by approximately 1.1%. Core gross margin saw a firmer performance, staying around 1.6 percentage points higher than the same period a year earlier.

Revenue climbed 16.4% to $109.42 billion, showing a strong top-line performance. CEO Tim Cook described the result as Apple’s “strongest June quarter ever.” Apple

Revenue lineQ3 FY2026Year-on-yearSales sharePrior-year share
iPhone$54.25 billion+21.7%49.6%47.4%
Services$30.74 billion+12.1%28.1%29.2%
Mac$10.35 billion+28.7%9.5%8.6%
Wearables, Home and Accessories$7.88 billion+6.5%7.2%7.9%
iPad$6.19 billion-5.9%5.7%7.0%

Apple’s published segment revenue serves as the basis for growth and sales-share calculations.

Growth was driven by hardware. Sales of iPhone and Mac outpaced overall revenue growth. Services remained up, but its contribution to sales fell to 28.1% from 29.2%.

Services revenue came in below the $31.22 billion analyst forecast reported by Reuters. According to D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria, “services growth was slowing.” Reuters

Guidance shifted attention ahead. Apple projected revenue growth of 9% to 11% for the current quarter. Analysts on Wall Street had anticipated roughly 12%. Cook called supply constraints “very significant.” Reuters

Growth measureLatest quarterCurrent-quarter Apple outlookWall Street estimate
Total revenue+16.4%+9% to +11%+12.0%
iPhone revenue+21.7%Mid-teens percentage+17.6%

Apple’s stock price fell, but its valuation premium remained intact. Shares continued to trade at 34.8 times trailing earnings, above all listed peers, including the bigger Nvidia.

CompanyMonday closeMonday moveMarket valueTrailing P/E
Apple Inc. $303.42down 1.8%$4.46 trillion34.8x
Nvidia Corp. $206.64up 2.9%$5.04 trillion31.5x
Alphabet Inc. $373.51up 4.9%$4.57 trillion18.8x
Microsoft Corp. $487.65up 4.9%$3.63 trillion29.0x
Amazon.com Inc. $284.02up 4.6%$3.10 trillion22.8x

Recent analyst notes mirrored the unease. DZ Bank’s Ingo Wermann lowered Apple to Hold, maintaining a $310 fair value estimate. Helena Wang at Phillip Securities switched to Reduce, setting a price target at $290. These targets indicate possible gains of 2.2% and potential losses of 4.4% from Monday’s market close.

Risks: Supply may rebound more quickly than forecast, although September pricing might help maintain margins. Potential downside includes more severe component shortages, a deceleration in services growth, regulatory challenges, and the absence of the previous tariff-refund advantage.

Apple shares have dropped 10.8% in the last five sessions. Investors are watching for the August 10 record date for its dividend. The quarterly payout of $0.27 per share will be distributed on August 13.

Nasdaq futures rose 0.45% early Tuesday, signalling a stronger tone for markets. Apple faces a more specific challenge. Will a price-to-earnings ratio near 35 be sustained after a core EPS beat of just around 1%?

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

Is there still significant upside potential in Apple’s current valuation?
Apple ended trading on August 3 at $303.42, representing 34.5 times FactSet’s earnings-per-share estimate of $8.80 for fiscal 2026. FactSet projects EPS will climb 8.8% to $9.57 for fiscal 2027. LSEG’s median price target stands at $330, while FactSet’s is at $335, indicating a potential upside between 8.8% and 10.4%. The Wall Street Journal
To what extent did tariff refunds boost quarterly results?
Revenue in fiscal Q3 increased by 16% to $109.4 billion, while EPS climbed 29% to $2.02. Tariff refunds contributed $0.11 per share as well as roughly two points to margins. Without this impact, EPS stood at approximately $1.91, versus a consensus estimate of $1.89. The core outperformance was modest. Apple
Could supply limitations prompt a further adjustment of forecasts?
Apple projects revenue growth of 9%–11% for the September quarter, with analyst forecasts closer to 12%. The company warns that advanced-node supply shortages will intensify, further limiting iPhone, Mac and iPad supply. Gross margin is expected between 47% and 48%, below the Q3 underlying margin of 48.1%. Apple anticipates iPhone revenue will rise by the mid-teens percentage, compared to Wall Street’s 17.6% forecast. Reuters
Is robust hardware performance enough to counterbalance slower Services growth?
iPhone sales climbed 21.7% to $54.25 billion, surpassing expectations. Mac sales increased 28.7% to $10.35 billion. Services rose 12.1% to $30.74 billion, falling short of consensus. The miss is significant. Services margin stood at 75.6%, compared to 40.1% for products. Revenue from Greater China grew 22.4% to $18.82 billion, but also came in below forecasts. Reuters
Could Siri AI serve as a quantifiable catalyst for fiscal 2027?
User beta testing for Siri AI will begin in late 2026. The feature will not launch immediately on iPhones in the EU or China. Apple increased Q3 research expenses by 32% to $11.73 billion, with some of the rise due to investment in AI infrastructure. Executives mentioned possible improvements to iCloud+ yet did not share a revenue estimate. John Ternus is set to take over as CEO on September 1 and will oversee the launch. Apple

Michał Rogucki is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic developments. A graduate of Humboldt University of Berlin, he previously worked in investment research and market analysis before transitioning to financial journalism. He covers the trends and events that matter most to investors worldwide.

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