NEW YORK, July 21, 2026, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Archer Aviation NYSE:ACHR finished Tuesday with a market capitalization of $4.05 billion. Based on a preliminary estimate, the two-day Thunder rally contributed an increase of approximately $644 million. Shares ended at $5.28, slipping 0.6%, following a 19.6% jump on Monday. U.S. regular trading had ended around three hours before this report was published. The estimate uses Tuesday’s implied share count and Friday’s closing price.
Monday’s announcement did not disclose the value of any contract or order. The Thunder aircraft is not scheduled for its first flight until 2027. This development set a preliminary value for a future defense business ahead of any contract details becoming available.
The realised gain amounts to 36% of Archer’s cash and short-term investments for the first quarter. That figure is also 3.7 times higher than the adjusted EBITDA loss for the same period. Archer disclosed having $1.776 billion in cash and short-term investments, alongside a $172.5 million adjusted EBITDA loss.
The prior week did not display any defense premium.
| Regular-session move | Archer Aviation NYSE:ACHR | Joby Aviation NYSE:JOBY | Russell 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prior week, July 10-17 | -6.1% | -6.3% | -0.5% |
| Monday, July 20 | +19.6% | +3.3% | -0.7% |
| Tuesday, July 21 | -0.6% | +2.5% | +1.5% |
| Week to date, through Tuesday | +18.9% | +5.9% | +0.9% |
Returns are calculated using regular-session closing prices and rounded.
Archer and Joby moved closely together last week, but Monday marked a shift. Archer finished 16.3 percentage points ahead of Joby as small-cap stocks dropped. On Tuesday, Archer slipped 0.6%, lagging behind the Russell 2000’s 1.5% rise.
Trading activity saw a significant shift. On Monday, 98.3 million shares changed hands—3.9 times the average daily volume seen between July 13-17. Tuesday’s volume remained over double that recent average.
A portion of the surge could have been technical. According to Barron’s, about 20% of Archer’s shares were held short, providing an opportunity for a short squeeze amid the rally.
Thunder, a hybrid-electric vertical takeoff aircraft, has been developed in partnership with private defense company Anduril. The Group 5 autonomous attack rotorcraft is its military iteration. The companies have conducted flights of full-scale surrogate aircraft, but Thunder itself has not flown.
Chief Executive Adam Goldstein stated the aircraft was custom-designed. “They identified a need, and we built a very specific aircraft for that need,” he told Reuters. In its announcement, Archer also described it as a clean-sheet design. Reuters
Next week marks an immediate valuation test. Archer plans to reveal the initial commercial customers for its platform during the week. Attention from investors will center on the scale of the orders and the specifics of funding agreements.
The strengthened balance sheet gives Archer more leeway, but revenue is still limited. The company reported $1.6 million in first-quarter revenue and a net loss of $217.7 million. For the second quarter, Archer projects an adjusted EBITDA loss ranging from $170 million to $200 million.
Risks are still elevated as Thunder has yet to conduct a flight and the customer economics have not been revealed. Midnight’s FAA type certification is not complete. A soft order update may reverse some of the recent re-rating.
Investors have already priced in a degree of success. This week’s reports need to demonstrate how much of that anticipated value is being converted to cash.
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