NEW YORK, July 31, 2026, 19:07 EDT
- Archer ended Friday at $4.64, a decrease of 2.1% for the session and 2.7% lower on the week.
- The stock has given up 77% of the gains it posted after the July 20 defense announcement.
- Joby Aviation NYSE:JOBY is scheduled to report on August 5, with Archer set to announce on August 10.
Archer Aviation’s stock closed Friday down 2.1% at $4.64. U.S. regular session trading had ended, but after-hours activity continued at the dateline.
The clearest indication appears in the two-week chart. Archer has given back 77% of its dollar increase following Thunder’s launch. Initial enthusiasm over defense was swift, but much of that has faded.
| Date | Closing price | Change from July 17 | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 17 | $4.44 | — | Before Thunder close |
| July 20 | $5.31 | +19.6% | Thunder-driven surge |
| July 31 | $4.64 | +4.5% | 77% of increase lost |
The calculation is based on closing prices that have not been adjusted. Archer introduced Thunder in partnership with defense technology firm Anduril on July 20.
Defense is expected to help advance paying programs. Speaking at the Farnborough Airshow, Chief Executive Adam Goldstein highlighted this benefit. “The time to field can be much shorter, and if you win a program there is known money at the end of the contract,” he said. Reuters
Thunder, an unmanned hybrid-electric aircraft intended for defense and logistics roles, has been in testing with full-scale surrogate models, according to Archer. The inaugural flight of Thunder is scheduled for 2027.
| Market measure | Archer Aviation | Joby Aviation |
|---|---|---|
| July 31 closing price | $4.64 | $7.15 |
| Friday change | -2.1% | -1.2% |
| July 24–31 variation | -2.7% | +3.2% |
| Market capitalization now | $3.56 billion | $6.75 billion |
Weekly shifts reflect closing prices from July 24 to July 31.
Archer trailed Joby by 5.9 percentage points over the week. This gap calls into question the argument that defense exposure by itself is enough to bolster the stock.
According to a Reuters analysis on Friday, the civil certification process is proceeding more slowly and is costing above initial forecasts. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard noted that certain investors are showing reduced patience. Strong balance sheets continue to be crucial in the meantime.
| Balance-sheet measure | Archer Aviation | Joby Aviation |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 cash and short-term investments | $1.776 billion | $2.500 billion |
| Cash as share of current market value | 49.9% | 37.1% |
| Market capitalization minus reported cash | $1.78 billion | $4.25 billion |
Market value excluding cash serves as a basic equity metric. Unlike enterprise value, it does not account for debt or other obligations.
The cash buffer is significant. However, Archer’s basic equity value excluding cash is still 58% lower than Joby’s. The valuation gap cannot be justified by funding alone.
Operating evidence reveals a broader difference.
| Q1 2026 metric | Archer Aviation | Joby Aviation |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.6 million | $24.2 million |
| Net operating cash use | $149.1 million | $144.4 million |
| Capital expenditure | $32.6 million | $77.9 million |
| Operating cash use plus capex | $181.7 million | $222.4 million |
Figures have not been audited. The last row displays the sum of the reported cash-flow items.
Joby generated revenue in the first quarter that was 15.2 times higher than Archer’s. The companies’ uses of operating cash were separated by only 3.2%. Joby’s reported revenue factored in operations obtained through Blade’s passenger business.
Archer expects a second-quarter non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA loss in the range of $170 million to $200 million, according to its preliminary estimate. The midpoint of $185 million represents a 7.2% increase over its loss in the first quarter.
Certification is still the principal civil milestone. Archer reported it completed Phase 3 in the FAA’s four-step process, with Phase 4 test and evaluation ongoing. Joby announced its inaugural FAA-conforming aircraft for Type Inspection Authorization performed its first flight in the first quarter.
| Upcoming catalyst | Date | Main investor focus |
|---|---|---|
| Joby Q2 earnings | August 5 | Revenue, cash burn, certification progress |
| Archer Q2 earnings | August 10 | Expenditure, Midnight test phase, defense targets |
| Thunder’s inaugural flight | Planned for 2027 | Execution of program, conversion of customers |
Joby will deliver the sector’s initial updated benchmark with results on Wednesday. Archer is set to report after the market close on August 10.
Risks are still significant. Shares could face pressure from certification delays, test setbacks, supplier disruptions, or missed contract deadlines. Additional capital raising could lead to dilution for current shareholders.
Currently, investors see Archer as having financial backing, but yet to demonstrate results.
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