Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY) Shares Recover 4.8% With Valuation Premium Under Scrutiny as Earnings Approach

JOBY was up 3.7% at $7.185 as of 2:48 p.m. ET, gaining $0.255. The price fluctuated between $7.03 and $7.33 on volume of 43.4 million shares. Market capitalization was roughly $6.78 billion. No clear trigger was identified for the move. The company’s most recent published news was its July 22 agreement with Virgin Atlantic. Recent FAA pilot-program feedback has provided some context, but no direct link has been established. Joby Aero, Inc.

Joby plans to release second-quarter results following the market close on August 5, with its earnings webcast scheduled for 5:00 p.m. Eastern. First-quarter revenue reached $24.2 million, in line with annual guidance ranging from $105 million to $115 million, meaning $80.8 million to $90.8 million is still needed over the next three quarters. First-quarter cash outflow, not counting the Ohio property purchase, totaled $163 million. Guidance for the first half of the year suggests second-quarter cash usage will fall between $177 million and $207 million. Updates on cash flow and certification are likely to be key for investors. Joby Aviation

The most recent certification dashboard released was dated May 1, 2026. Both parties had completed stages one through three at 100%, 97%, and 100%, respectively. Joby’s testing and analysis stood at 82%, with the FAA at 75%. The show-and-verify phase remained in early progress, with Joby at 15% and the FAA at 6%. Joby also conducted the first flight of its FAA-conforming TIA aircraft in the first quarter, and finished the SR3 audit. A final type-certificate date has not been announced.

Dubai’s transport authority maintains plans for commercial service before the end of 2026. Joby’s goal is also to welcome its first Dubai passengers in 2026. The Dubai International Vertiport reached completion in May, and another location is close to finishing. No confirmed launch date or passenger capacity has been disclosed. Regulatory clearance is still required, making operations by year-end only a target, not guaranteed. Reuters

Joby reported $2.466 billion in cash and short-term investments as of the end of March. Excluding the purchase of Ohio property, cash usage in the first quarter was $163 million. At that rate, the company’s funds would last about 15 quarters, or 3.8 years. This is a rough estimate. Expenses related to certification, manufacturing, vertiports and product launch may speed up spending. Long-term debt reached $701.1 million at the end of the quarter. Management states current liquidity is sufficient for at least the coming twelve months. SEC

Weighted-average shares increased 23% from a year earlier, totaling 943.5 million in Q1. As of May 4, shares outstanding stood at 983.6 million. The February stock offering introduced 52.9 million shares at $11.35, generating $576.3 million net. Toyota’s second tranche of $250 million might add up to 49.7 million shares at $5.03, pending final manufacturing agreements. The convertible notes initially translate to around 48.6 million shares at $14.19. Capped calls cover the same initial volume and may offset dilution. SEC

At $7.185 per share, Joby’s market capitalization stood at around $6.78 billion. Revenue in the first quarter totaled $24.2 million, with most of the income generated by Blade passenger operations. Gross profit reached $5.4 million, resulting in a gross margin of 22.4%. Extrapolating those results for the full year would imply about $97 million in revenue and a price-to-sales ratio close to 70. The comparison is rough: Blade’s business varies by season, and Joby’s S4 aircraft has yet to enter commercial service. The company’s valuation therefore reflects considerable expectations for certification and a successful commercial rollout. SEC

Toyota holds a 51% stake in the new venture, with Joby owning 49%. The venture began with $2.0 million in startup capital—$1.02 million contributed by Toyota and $980,000 by Joby. The entity aims to secure exclusive manufacturing rights for the S4 aircraft. Joby will grant a royalty-free license for associated technology for production and support. Terms around supply and required funding contributions are still being negotiated. Toyota’s second $250 million investment in Joby is also contingent on these outstanding agreements. Equisolve

The July 22 pact is a binding, multi-year arrangement and goes beyond an exploratory phase. Virgin Atlantic will act as Joby’s exclusive UK airline collaborator. Planned service points include Heathrow and Manchester with booking systems to be integrated. Joby retains responsibility for aircraft operations, routes, and compliance with regulatory requirements. Details such as aircraft purchases, guaranteed revenue, set pricing, or a firm launch schedule were not provided. As a result, the deal’s immediate earnings impact cannot be specified. Joby Aviation