AMSTERDAM, July 24, 2026, 14:21 CEST
- The Euronext Amsterdam market was trading. Normal cash trading closes at 17:30 CEST.
- At 13:50 CEST, ASML shares were priced at €1,579, showing a dip of 0.01%.
- Initial midpoint calculations suggest fourth-quarter sales total €14.41 billion.
ASML Holding NV AMS:ASML requires approximately €14.4 billion in fourth-quarter revenue to achieve the midpoint of its 2026 target. This early estimate is based on ASML’s guidance for the full year and the third quarter. The focus shifts to the pace of sales ramp-up at year-end, rather than a new demand indication.
By the halfway mark, roughly 59% of yearly sales would be booked in the latter six months. Fourth-quarter revenue would increase by 54% over the second quarter. That represents a significant shift.
ASML shares traded close to unchanged at €1,579 as of 13:50 CEST. The AEX edged up 0.03%, and the Stoxx Europe 600 Technology index advanced 1.13%. ASML underperformed the sector by roughly 1.1 percentage points.
Intel NASDAQ:INTC increased its forecast for 2026 capital expenditures to $20 billion, up from the previous $18 billion projection. The company’s stock rose 6% in premarket trading. CFO Dave Zinsner stated Intel was “meaningfully increasing our investments in equipment.” Reuters
The budget includes funds for clean-room facilities and substrates. This is not an ASML order outlook. However, it underpins the investment cycle tied to ASML’s growth strategy.
ASML recorded sales of €8.77 billion in the first quarter and €9.33 billion in the second. The company forecasts revenue of €11 billion to €12 billion for the third quarter, with full-year expectations at €43 billion to €45 billion.
| 2026 sales bridge | Low | Midpoint | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| First-half reported | €18.09bn | €18.09bn | €18.09bn |
| Full-year outlook | €43.00bn | €44.00bn | €45.00bn |
| Third-quarter outlook | €11.00bn | €11.50bn | €12.00bn |
| Preliminary inferred Q4 | €13.91bn | €14.41bn | €14.91bn |
| Q4 rise compared to Q2 | 49% | 54% | 60% |
Initial calculation is based on matched guidance endpoints. ASML has yet to provide guidance for the fourth quarter.
At the midpoint, fourth-quarter results would surpass third-quarter figures by 25%. This period would account for close to one-third of yearly revenue. Any shortfall in the third quarter would increase the target needed by year-end.
The operating ramp is underway. ASML delivered 86 new lithography systems in Q2, an increase from 67. Installed-base management sales climbed 11%, reaching €2.76 billion.
Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet stated that “order intake remained extremely strong” during the first half. ASML is targeting a 30% boost in capacity in 2027 compared with 2026. The increase will apply to both low-NA EUV and DUV immersion systems. ASML
Latest peer figures also pointed to robust demand. BE Semiconductor Industries AMS:BESI posted second-quarter orders of €292.9 million, increasing 129% from a year earlier. The company projected revenue growth of 10% to 15% quarter-on-quarter for Q3.
Besi shares slipped 1.35% on Friday. Along with ASML trailing the sector, this points to robust demand being widely anticipated. Investors are now focused on scrutinising delivery speed and revenue schedules.
ASML’s market value stood at approximately €614 billion. Shares were trading at 58.6 times trailing earnings, giving limited tolerance for any timing slip.
Key risks include customer demand, factory ramp-up performance, product distribution, and the timing of revenue. Intel’s budget is general and does not represent an ASML order. Lower-than-expected Q3 results would increase the Q4 bar.
With the annual midpoint set at €44 billion, Q3 sales of €12 billion mean €13.9 billion would be needed in Q4. Should Q3 come in at €11 billion, Q4 requirements would increase to €14.9 billion. The upcoming results will indicate if progress is on track.
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