VELDHOVEN, August 19, 2026, 14:17 CEST
- ASML gained 0.4% as two major European semiconductor rivals declined.
- Full-year outlook suggests sales will increase by 38% to 49% in the second half.
- The stock continues to trade beneath all reported buyback prices from late June and early July.
Shares of ASML Holding N.V. AMS:ASML climbed 0.39% to €1,547.80 on Wednesday, bucking the broader decline in semiconductor stocks. Infineon Technologies AG (ETR:IFX) and STMicroelectronics N.V. EPA:STMPA each lost over 1%. The quoted prices were delayed by 15 minutes and recorded at 14:17 CEST.
The importance of relative strength is highlighted as ASML undergoes a significant execution challenge. The company’s full-year outlook requires sales in the second half to outpace the first half by between 38% and 49%. Increasing bond yields are making that growth target more difficult to achieve.
European government bond yields climbed to levels not seen in years on Wednesday, with borrowing costs in Germany and France reaching peaks last set 15 to 18 years ago. The rise came on the heels of Tuesday’s global selloff in bonds. Yields on U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasuries finished that session close to 4.71% and 5.28%, respectively.
| European chip stock | Price | Day change | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML Holding | €1,547.80 | up 0.39% | 56.19 |
| Infineon Technologies | €56.38 | down 1.50% | 61.79 |
| STMicroelectronics | €44.845 | down 1.03% | 103.78 |
Despite that resilience, ASML’s recent de-rating remains. Shares are trading 4.0% under the €1,613 mark seen after July’s upgraded outlook. The price is also beneath all disclosed buyback levels from June 29 through July 3.
| Buyback date | ASML weighted average | Aug. 19 price compared to buyback |
|---|---|---|
| June 29 | €1,587.15 | -2.5% |
| June 30 | €1,691.67 | -8.5% |
| July 1 | €1,696.17 | -8.7% |
| July 2 | €1,602.35 | -3.4% |
| July 3 | €1,627.91 | -4.9% |
The operating base remains solid. Sales for the second quarter increased 6.4% compared to the first quarter. Revenue from the installed base climbed 11.0%, and deliveries of new lithography systems were up 28.4%. Net income posted a slower gain, rising 5.8%.
| Operating metric | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Sequential change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total net sales | €8.767bn | €9.326bn | +6.4% |
| Installed-base sales | €2.488bn | €2.762bn | +11.0% |
| New systems sold | 67 | 86 | +28.4% |
| Gross margin | 53.0% | 54.0% | +1.0 point |
| Net income | €2.757bn | €2.918bn | +5.8% |
The next stage will be more challenging. Revenue for the first half reached €18.093 billion. ASML’s annual projection of €43 billion to €45 billion means the company must generate €24.907 billion to €26.907 billion in the latter half. Achieving the midpoint would mark a 43% increase from the first half.
| Revenue bridge | Low case | High case | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 guidance | €11.0bn | €12.0bn | 18% to 29% over Q2 |
| Implied Q4 | €12.907bn | €15.907bn | Significant second-half weighting persists |
| Implied H2 | €24.907bn | €26.907bn | 38% to 49% higher than H1 |
| FY 2026 guidance | €43.0bn | €45.0bn | Gross margin target between 54% and 56% |
Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet reported that customer capacity planning was speeding up. He called order intake during the first half “extremely strong.” ASML aims to expand its 2027 low-NA EUV and immersion DUV capacity by roughly 30% compared to 2026. ASML Q2 statement
High-NA EUV is progressing past the research phase. Intel Corporation NASDAQ:INTC has started high-volume manufacturing on certain Panther Lake layers with the advanced technology. According to ASML, yields are in line with its current NXE platform. This achievement reduces risk for adoption, though expanded implementation remains tied to customer economics.
Analyst confidence is strong, but projections are dispersed. In a July poll, 40 out of 44 analysts gave positive ratings. The average price target stands at €1,995, suggesting a potential 28.9% increase from Wednesday’s close. However, the lowest target is 16.6% under that mark.
| Analyst recommendation | July count | Share of 44 |
|---|---|---|
| Strong buy | 33 | 75.0% |
| Buy | 7 | 15.9% |
| Hold | 3 | 6.8% |
| Sell | 0 | 0.0% |
| Strong sell | 1 | 2.3% |
| Average target | €1,995 | +28.9% over €1,547.80 |
| Target range | €1,291 to €2,500 | -16.6% to +61.5% |
Degroof Petercam analyst Michael Roeg described July’s report as “blow-out results across the board.” Marc Hesselink, another analyst, said that reduced lithography bottlenecks had benefited the wider equipment supply chain. The market focus has shifted to delivery over orders. Reuters
Risks: the plan for the second half is weighted toward later periods. Potential delays in system acceptance, supplier constraints, or customers postponing purchases could defer revenue. Export controls still pose a significant risk, and even with earnings growth, higher yields could pressure valuations.
Investors are advised to monitor Q3 sales, gross margin and key capacity targets. Wednesday’s relative strength highlights trust in ASML’s scarcity premium. The scale of the buyback indicates that confidence does have its limits.
Execution strength meets rate pressure
Financial data: Q2 2026 results and full-year company guidance
Amsterdam price
Market cap
Trailing P/E
FY sales guide
FY margin
The key math: a back-loaded 2026
Quarterly momentum
Analyst target map
Same-session European peer check
| Company | Day | P/E |
|---|---|---|
| ASML | +0.39% | 56.2× |
| Infineon | -1.50% | 61.8× |
| STMicroelectronics | -1.03% | 103.8× |
