Australia’s sharemarket looks set for a mildly positive start on Thursday, with S&P/ASX 200 SPI futures up 14 points (+0.15%) around 8:30am AEDT. That follows a mixed Wall Street session where the Dow Jones closed at a fresh record above 48,000, while tech lagged. Locally, attention turns to the October labour force report at 11:30am AEDT and a heavy corporate docket led by Xero’s interim results, Orica’s full‑year, and GrainCorp’s FY25 print. [1]
Key takeaways at a glance
- ASX 200 futures +0.15% ahead of the open; overnight oil fell sharply while gold stayed firm. [2]
- Wall Street: Dow at a record; S&P 500 little changed; Nasdaq softer as big tech underperformed; US 10‑year yield eased to ~4.07%. [3]
- Commodities/FX: Brent settled near US$62.7/bbl, WTI around US$58.5/bbl; iron ore ~US$104/t (62% Fe); AUD/USD ~0.654 early. [4]
- Today’s local catalysts:ABS labour force (Oct) 11:30am AEDT; Xero (1H FY26) released; GrainCorp FY25 10:00am AEDT; Orica FY25 11:00am AEDT; ANZ goes ex‑dividend (A$0.83). [5]
Overnight lead: Dow climbs, tech stumbles
US stocks split three ways: Dow +0.7% (record 48,254.82), S&P 500 +0.1%, Nasdaq –0.3%. Investors rotated toward cyclicals and defensives while trimming mega‑cap tech exposure. Hopes for a resolution to the US government shutdown lent a risk‑on undertone, and Treasury yields eased (10‑year near 4.066%). [6]
Commodities & currency: oil slides, gold stays bid, iron ore steady
Crude extended its pullback as supply expectations rose: WTI settled ~US$58.49/bbl; Brent ~US$62.71/bbl, both around three‑week lows after agency outlooks flagged softer pricing into 2026. Gold held above US$4,100/oz after this week’s rally, with traders leaning into rate‑cut hopes. Iron ore (62% Fe, CFR) hovered near US$104/t, keeping the spotlight on local miners. The Aussie traded around US$0.654 early. [7] [8]
Why it matters for the ASX: lower oil is a headwind for energy names but a tailwind for transport and input‑heavy industrials; firmer bullion typically supports gold miners; steady‑to‑firm iron ore underpins big miners’ cashflow profiles.
Australia today: data, dividends and a full earnings slate
1) Labour market — 11:30am AEDT
The ABS releases October labour force figures at 11:30am. Markets will parse unemployment, participation and full‑time vs part‑time splits for clues on household demand and the RBA’s “restrictiveness” debate after recent remarks from Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser. [9]
2) Companies reporting / events
- Xero (XRO) — Half‑year FY26 results released this morning: revenue NZ$1.194bn (+20%), NPAT NZ$134.8m, AMRR NZ$2.73bn (+26%); free cash flow NZ$321.1m; management reiterated a Rule of 40 outcome of 44.5%. [10]
- GrainCorp (GNC) — FY25 results webcast 10:00am AEDT. [11]
- Orica (ORI) — FY25 full‑year results 11:00am AEDT (presentation flagged on investor calendar). [12]
- AGMs — Arena REIT, Computershare, Ingenia, Inghams, PEXA, NextDC. [13]
- Ex‑dividends — ANZ (A$0.83, 70% franked); Dicker Data; Future Generation Australia. ANZ confirmed ex‑date 13 Nov and final dividend of A$0.83 in its FY25 materials. [14]
What’s driving sentiment
- RBA watch: Policymakers say policy is still mildly restrictive but under review after sticky Q3 inflation; labour data today will colour the near‑term path. [15]
- US macro ahead:October CPI prints 8:30am ET Thursday (12:30am AEDT Friday), a potential volatility spark for global risk assets into week’s end. [16]
Yesterday on the ASX (context)
The ASX 200 slipped 0.22% on Wednesday, with banks softer while lithium names rallied after Mineral Resources agreed to sell 30% of its lithium business to POSCO for US$765m—a sector‑wide shot in the arm. [17]
Trading lens: sectors and stocks to watch at the open
- Miners:Iron ore near US$104/t supports RIO/BHP/FM G; gold names remain leveraged to bullion’s strength. [18]
- Energy: Crude’s slide is a near‑term headwind for WDS/STO; refiners and transport may find relief. [19]
- Financials:ANZ typically trades ex‑dividend mechanics at the open; watch CBA/BEN after recent pressure. [20]
- Tech: Offshore tech wobble and a stronger AUD can weigh on local growth names into the bell. [21]
The day ahead: timetable (AEDT)
- 10:00am — GrainCorp FY25 webcast. [22]
- 11:00am — Orica FY25 results. [23]
- 11:30am — ABS Labour Force (Oct). [24]
- 6:00pm — UK GDP (Q3) (global read‑through for risk). [25]
- Overnight / 12:30am Fri — US CPI (Oct). [26]
Bottom line
Futures point to a slightly firmer ASX open as investors digest a new Dow high, cheaper oil and resilient gold. The 11:30am jobs print is the main domestic swing factor for rates‑sensitive pockets, while Xero, Orica and GrainCorp supply stock‑specific catalysts. Keep an eye on ANZ’s ex‑dividend adjustment at the open and US CPI after the local close for the week’s final macro shove. [27]
This article is for general information only and is not financial advice. Do your own research and consider seeking professional guidance tailored to your circumstances.
References
1. www.marketindex.com.au, 2. www.marketindex.com.au, 3. apnews.com, 4. www.tradingview.com, 5. www.abs.gov.au, 6. apnews.com, 7. www.tradingview.com, 8. www.marketindex.com.au, 9. www.abs.gov.au, 10. openbriefing.com, 11. company-announcements.afr.com, 12. www.orica.com, 13. www.marketindex.com.au, 14. www.anz.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.bls.gov, 17. www.marketindex.com.au, 18. markets.ft.com, 19. www.tradingview.com, 20. www.anz.com, 21. apnews.com, 22. company-announcements.afr.com, 23. www.orica.com, 24. www.abs.gov.au, 25. www.marketindex.com.au, 26. www.bls.gov, 27. www.marketindex.com.au
