NEW YORK, August 3, 2026, 15:10 EDT
- Atkore was last at $93.40, 1.7% below the $95 per share cash offer.
- The declared dividend brings the projected annualized return to 5.1% by year-end. In comparison, the most recent 26-week Treasury bill rate stood at 3.95%.
- Sales for the quarter increased by 8.1%, while gross margin declined by 120 basis points.
Atkore stock jumped 28% to reach $93.40 on Monday. The most recent delayed quote was $1.60 under the agreed buyout price as U.S. markets remained open.
Prysmian S.p.A. (BIT:PRY) has agreed to purchase Atkore for $95 per share in cash. The deal values Atkore at approximately $3.8 billion in enterprise value, with the transaction expected to close by the end of the year.
The slim spread alters the trade dynamics. Investors have secured much of the takeover premium, yet remain exposed to closing risk.
The $93.40 offer represents a 1.7% gross return. When annualized to December 31, the return equates to approximately 4.2% before accounting for taxes and expenses.
Atkore announced a quarterly dividend of $0.33. Factoring in this dividend increases the projected gross return to 2.1%, which equates to around 5.1% on an annualized basis. The estimate presumes the investor collects the dividend and that the transaction concludes on December 31.
On July 31, the most recent 26-week Treasury bill posted an investment rate of 3.95%. The return on the dividend-inclusive deal is higher by roughly 1.15 percentage points, but this does not reflect risk-adjusted figures.
| Deal-spread measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Most recent ATKR price (delayed) | $93.40 |
| Total cash to be paid | $95.00 |
| Headline return from offer | 1.71% |
| Projected annual yield through Dec. 31 | 4.22% |
| Current quarterly payout declared | $0.33 |
| Total offer return with dividend | 2.07% |
| Projected annual return inclusive of dividend | 5.10% |
| Most recent 26-week Treasury bill yield | 3.95% |
| Expected return premium over Treasury bill | 1.15 percentage points |
The offer stands at roughly a 30% premium over Atkore’s closing price on July 31. Prysmian noted a 57% premium compared to September 29, 2025, ahead of Atkore’s announcement of a strategic review. Additionally, the bid is 23% higher than the 90-day volume-weighted average price.
The headline valuation appears more stretched when compared to present earnings. Prysmian cites a multiple of 9.8 times, based on Atkore’s projected adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025.
Atkore reported adjusted EBITDA of $325.8 million over the past 12 months. Based on this number, the estimated acquisition multiple increases to roughly 11.7 times.
| EBITDA basis | EBITDA | Approximate enterprise value/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|
| Actual for fiscal 2025 | $386.4 million | 9.8 times |
| Last 12 months ending June 26 | $325.8 million | 11.7 times |
| Trailing EBITDA including projected synergies | $475.8 million | 8.0 times |
Prysmian plans to achieve $150 million in annual run-rate EBITDA synergies over three years, representing 46% of Atkore’s trailing EBITDA. Factoring in this target, the deal’s multiple reduces to roughly 8.0 times. These synergies have yet to be realized.
Prysmian CEO Massimo Battaini said, “Atkore fits well with our strategy to become more relevant in the United States.” Prysmian intends to fund the deal with approximately 60% in debt, over 20% in hybrid securities, and about 20% in equity. Reuters
Atkore reported higher volumes for its fiscal third quarter, though margin quality declined. Revenue increased by 8.1%, and adjusted EBITDA was up 4.7%. Gross margin declined by 120 basis points to 22.2%.
| Fiscal third-quarter measure | 2026 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | $794.8 million | $735.0 million | up 8.1% |
| Gross margin | 22.2% | 23.4% | down 120 basis points |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $104.7 million | $99.9 million | up 4.7% |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 13.2% | 13.6% | down 43 basis points |
| Adjusted earnings per share | $1.92 | $1.63 | up 17.8% |
| GAAP net income | $0.7 million | $43.0 million | down 98.3% |
Quarterly sales received a $65.7 million boost from volume. Pricing provided an additional $22.4 million. However, increased input expenses lowered earnings by $48.9 million, with cost increases outpacing pricing gains by $26.5 million.
Electrical products boosted quarterly results. Safety and Infrastructure sales saw minimal growth, and adjusted EBITDA for the segment declined by 8.4%.
| Segment | Sales growth | Adjusted EBITDA growth | 2026 margin | 2025 margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electrical | up 10.9% | rising 10.0% | 15.4% | 15.6% |
| Safety and Infrastructure | up 1.3% | down 8.4% | 13.0% | 14.4% |
Cash conversion deteriorated at a steeper rate. Free cash flow for the nine-month period stood at negative $130.7 million, compared with positive $107.4 million a year ago. Net debt increased by $160.2 million to $414.0 million since September 30. Litigation settlement expense over nine months amounted to $186.5 million.
Chief Executive Bill Waltz stated, “Our net sales reflected strong organic volume growth from both our segments.” Atkore has discontinued updates to its 2026 profit outlook after entering the agreement. The company canceled its scheduled earnings call for Tuesday but will proceed with the bondholder call on August 7. Atkore
The deal has received approval from both boards. The acquisition is still subject to a shareholder vote by Atkore and regulatory review.
Key risks include potential approval delays, the risk of a failed shareholder vote, and ongoing input-cost pressures. The deal allows for an extension of the outside date from 12 months up to 18 months if certain regulatory conditions are met.
Atkore is currently valued at $93.40, with trading largely influenced by the timing of project completion. While the current operating quarter provides some perspective, there is limited remaining price buffer.
