The Australian stock market finished the week of 28–29 November 2025 on a cautiously upbeat note: the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 slipped fractionally on Friday but locked in a solid weekly gain, even as hotter‑than‑expected inflation and new lending curbs from APRA kept a lid on enthusiasm.
ASX 200: Tiny Friday Dip, Solid Weekly Rebound
On Friday 28 November, the S&P/ASX 200 index edged down just 3.2 points to close at 8,614.1, a move of roughly ‑0.04% – essentially flat on the day.
Despite the soft close, the week as a whole looked a lot better:
- ASX 200 weekly change (to 29 Nov 2025): +2.35%
- Month to date (November): ‑3.02%
- Quarter to date (Oct–Dec): ‑2.65%
- Year to date (2025): +5.58%
The broader All Ordinaries index showed a similar pattern, up 2.68% for the week but still down 2.83% for November so far.
Intraday, Friday’s session was remarkably subdued. Around midday, the ASX 200 was up about 0.1% to 8,628 points, before drifting back to finish slightly in the red as afternoon trading thinned out.
In other words: the market took a breather on Friday, but the week clearly broke the recent losing streak.
Biggest Gainers and Laggards on 28 November
While the index barely moved, stock‑level action was anything but dull.
Top ASX 200 movers
Data from the ASX and daily wrap‑ups show that growth, travel and infrastructure names dominated the winners’ list on Friday:
Major gainers (ASX 200 / ASX 300, 28 Nov)
- HMC Capital (HMC) – jumped about 9% to $3.87, leading the ASX 200 gainers list.
- Temple & Webster (TPW) – climbed roughly 7.4% to $15.52, extending its strong run in online retail.
- Flight Centre (FLT) – rose about 6.5% to $13.53, helped by ongoing strength in travel demand.
- Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT) – added nearly 4.9% to $2.80.
- WiseTech Global (WTC) – gained around 4.7% to $73.02, continuing its role as a heavyweight in the local tech space.
Outside the strict ASX 200 benchmark, another standout was Select Harvests (SHV), which surged more than 9.5%, topping the wider ASX 300 winners table.
Major decliners (ASX 200 / ASX 300, 28 Nov)
- Eagers Automotive (APE) – fell about 3.7% to $28.48, the sharpest drop among the larger caps.
- Suncorp Group (SUN) – slid around 3.6% to $17.56 as investors reacted to a hefty claims bill from recent storms and a broker downgrade.
- Centuria Capital (CNI) – down roughly 3.5% to $2.22.
- Qube (QUB) – slipped about 2.2% to $4.86.
- Premier Investments (PMV) – eased nearly 1.9% to $17.90.
The pattern was clear: rate‑sensitive financials and selected consumer names under pressure, while tech, infrastructure and travel names found buyers.
Mining, Tech and Gold Drive the Recovery
Under the bonnet, sector numbers for the week ending 29 November highlight just how powerful the rebound has been in resources and growth stocks:
- Information Technology: +5.96% for the week (though still ‑11.65% for November), as investors rotated back into high‑beta growth after earlier heavy selling.
- Materials: +4.98% for the week and a hefty +23.53% year‑to‑date, reflecting strong support for miners and critical‑minerals plays.
- Industrials: +4.23% for the week, +12.38% year‑to‑date.
- Healthcare: +4.30% for the week, even though the sector remains down more than 19% for 2025 overall.
The Gold Index has been the standout story of 2025:
- Gold miners index: up about 8.55% for the week and a staggering 109% year‑to‑date, supported by record‑high bullion prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Market commentary during Friday’s session noted that technology, staples and gold stocks were doing much of the “heavy lifting”, while a raft of lithium and critical‑minerals names “rocketed” intraday, suggesting that the beaten‑up battery‑materials trade is tentatively coming back into fashion. Market Index
Banks and Insurers Lag as Valuations and Regulation Bite
In stark contrast to the resource‑led rebound, financials struggled to keep up.
According to FNArena’s weekly index summary:
- The Financials sector rose just 0.12% for the week and is down 7.42% for November.
- The more concentrated Banks sub‑index actually fell 0.28% for the week and is off 8.05% for the month, even though it’s still up about 7.26% year‑to‑date.
Part of the drag came from insurance names:
- Suncorp was hit by a $350 million claims impact from severe storms in southeast Queensland and northern NSW, while also facing a JPMorgan downgrade, leaving the stock down over 3% on Friday alone.
Meanwhile, the country’s largest bank, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), continues to look expensive relative to many brokers’ valuation models:
- CBA closed Friday at $152.51, down 1.12% on the day, capping off a volatile month in which the stock has retreated from earlier highs well above $170.
- Data from sector dashboards show that bank share prices remain significantly above where they started 2024, even as earnings momentum has cooled and bad‑debt risks are slowly ticking higher.
Adding to the pressure, brokers such as Morgans have been busy re‑rating large‑cap ASX 200 names, revising ratings and 12‑month price targets on CBA and other blue‑chips in recent days – another sign that the market is wrestling with how much future growth is already “priced in”. One News Page
Macro Backdrop: Fed Cut Hopes vs Local Inflation Shock
The tug‑of‑war between global optimism and local inflation worries framed this week’s moves.
Global cues: Fed seen cutting rates soon
A weekly outlook from AMP’s chief economist notes that global equities rose over the last week, helped by a rebound in US stocks as traders grew more confident that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at its next meeting, following softer US economic data and more dovish messaging from Fed officials.
US and European bond yields fell on those expectations, while gold and Bitcoin both moved higher, reinforcing the view that investors are positioning for easier policy and potential concerns about central bank independence.
From an Australian perspective, this supportive global backdrop flowed through to the ASX – but only up to a point.
Local surprise: Inflation re‑accelerates
At home, the big macro story was another upside surprise on inflation:
- The new full‑coverage monthly CPI measure showed annual inflation lifting to around 3.8%, with trimmed‑mean underlying inflation also rising to roughly 3.3% – both above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target band.
The inflation shock pushed:
- Australian 10‑year bond yields up to about 4.52%, after a large Commonwealth bond auction and a chunky issuance from Western Australia.
- Market chatter towards the possibility that the RBA’s next move could be a rate hike in late 2026, rather than further cuts, if price pressures stay sticky.
That divergence – Fed possibly cutting soon vs the RBA potentially on hold or even hiking later – has been a key driver of:
- A firmer Australian dollar, which was trading around 65.2–65.3 US cents on Friday,
- And a two‑speed equity market, where bond‑sensitive sectors like banks and REITs lag while miners and gold producers thrive.
APRA’s New Debt‑to‑Income Caps Put Housing and Banks in Focus
Layered on top of the inflation and rate story is a major regulatory shift that markets are still digesting.
This week, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) confirmed it will, from 1 February 2026, introduce the country’s first formal cap on high debt‑to‑income (DTI) home loans:
- Banks and other authorised deposit‑taking institutions will be limited to no more than 20% of new mortgageswith a DTI above six times a borrower’s annual household income.
- The limit applies separately to owner‑occupier and investor lending, and excludes some categories such as loans for new dwellings and bridging finance.
APRA and Treasury have framed the move as “macro‑prudential” – a guardrail rather than an immediate brake:
- Currently, only about 4% of new owner‑occupier loans and around 10% of investor loans exceed the six‑times‑income threshold, meaning the new 20% cap is not yet binding at a system‑wide level.
- However, several major banks are already near that limit in their investor portfolios, and investor lending has surged about 18% in the September quarter, according to ABS data quoted by analysts.
For equity markets, the implications are nuanced:
- Big banks and non‑bank lenders face a slightly tighter framework around the most leveraged borrowers, which could temper earnings growth from housing credit if the cycle accelerates again.
- Property and construction‑linked stocks may see longer‑term benefits if the move helps prevent an over‑heated housing market from ending in a sharper correction later on.
- In the short run, the announcement is more about signalling than immediate financial impact – but it does add another reason for investors to question premium multiples on banks after a long rally.
Credit Growth Remains Strong – Especially for Investors
APRA’s decision didn’t come out of nowhere. Data released this week show credit growth is still running hot, particularly in housing:
- Private sector credit rose 0.7% month‑on‑month in October, slightly above some economists’ forecasts.
- Housing credit grew 0.6% m/m, with investor housing credit up 0.9%, outpacing owner‑occupied credit at 0.5%.
- Business credit also firmed, up 0.8% m/m, while personal credit growth eased to 0.2%.
Analysts argue this pattern – investors borrowing faster than owner‑occupiers, even in a relatively high‑rate environment – helps explain why APRA has moved now, before the next full‑blown housing upswing.
Where the Australian Sharemarket Stands Heading into December
Putting it all together, as of the weekend of 29 November 2025 the picture looks like this:
- The ASX 200 is up about 5.6% year‑to‑date, after a volatile year dominated by RBA policy shifts, global rate expectations and a powerful rally in commodities and gold.
- November has been a bruising month, with the index down roughly 3% despite this week’s recovery, matching independent end‑of‑month commentary that describes a “slide downwards” of about the same magnitude.
- Resources and gold stocks are clear winners in 2025, with materials up more than 23% year‑to‑date and gold miners more than doubling.
- Banks and rate‑sensitive financials are still ahead for the year but have relinquished a chunk of their earlier outperformance in the face of rising regulation and a flattening yield story.
- Tech and growth names remain volatile – down double‑digits for the month but capable of strong weekly rebounds when global risk appetite improves.
With US markets set to fully reopen after the Thanksgiving break and local investors now laser‑focused on upcoming GDP numbers and the RBA’s reaction to the inflation surprise, volatility is likely to stay elevated into December.
Key Themes to Watch in the Coming Weeks
While this article is not financial advice, several market themes are clearly on the radar for traders and longer‑term investors alike:
- RBA vs Fed policy path
- Will the Fed deliver the widely expected rate cut, and does the RBA stay firmly on hold – or even hint at the possibility of future hikes?
- Impact of APRA’s DTI cap on bank sentiment
- Even if the rule doesn’t immediately bite, watch how banks adjust their investor‑lending strategies and whether this affects loan growth guidance at upcoming results.
- Gold and critical minerals momentum
- With gold miners already up more than 100% this year and lithium names showing signs of life again, any shift in commodity prices or geopolitical risk could be amplified on the ASX.
- Household and investor leverage
- Credit growth data, housing price indices and lending statistics will be watched closely to see whether APRA’s move cools the more speculative end of the market before the cap formally kicks in in February.
Disclaimer: This article is for general information and news purposes only and does not constitute financial product advice. Always consider your own objectives and consult a licensed adviser before making investment decisions.
