Sydney, Feb 2, 2026, 09:21 AEDT — Premarket
- BHP ended Friday’s session down 1.82%, closing at A$50.57
- China’s official factory PMI dropped below 50. The private sector’s PMI will be released on Monday.
- The next key catalysts are the RBA policy decision on Tuesday and BHP’s results due Feb. 17
BHP Group Ltd shares enter Monday following a soft end to January, having fallen 1.82% to close at A$50.57 on Friday. (Market Index)
BHP serves as a liquid proxy for major bets on China demand and bulk commodity trends. This week, two key events could swiftly shift those wagers: new China factory data and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming rate decision.
Friday saw declines among major miners, as Fortescue dropped 2.73% and Rio Tinto finished the day in the red. (Market Index)
Index futures suggested the ASX would open lower, following a week that saw resources slide once again. (ABC News)
Commodities saw some volatility. Copper and precious metals retreated late last week following a strong rally. Macquarie analyst Alice Fox cautioned that the market is becoming crowded: “Prices are likely to remain high and volatile as funds continue to flow into this relatively small, and now very crowded market.” (Reuters)
China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in January, dipping below the 50 mark that indicates contraction. The private-sector PMI from RatingDog is set to be released on Monday. (Reuters)
Investors in Australia are gearing up for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming update on Tuesday. The cash rate target currently stands at 3.60%, with the next decision due on Feb. 3. (Reserve Bank of Australia)
BHP’s next major event is its half-year results, set for Feb. 17. (BHP)
The miner’s latest operational update highlighted record iron ore output in the first half, but also revealed it accepted lower prices on certain iron ore sales during contract negotiations. It also raised the investment estimate for its Jansen Stage 1 potash project. (Reuters)
BHP updated its Jansen Stage 1 total investment estimate to $8.4 billion, with first production expected by mid-2027. (BHP)
The trade could shift fast. A softer China report, another drop in metals, or steeper iron ore discounts would hit BHP’s earnings outlook and fuel the dividend debate.
Attention turns first to Monday’s China private PMI, then Tuesday’s RBA decision. After that, all eyes will be on BHP’s results on Feb. 17, which should offer fresh insight into costs and pricing trends.
