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BigBear.ai rallies almost 10%, but risk lingers under BBAI’s AI move

BigBear.ai rallies almost 10%, but risk lingers under BBAI’s AI move

NEW YORK, May 28, 2026, 15:02 (EDT)

• BigBear.ai shares gained 10% in afternoon trading, trading over 48 million shares.
• CFO Sean Ricker sold 10,000 shares for $4.33 each on May 22, according to a May 26 filing. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
• Margins and backlog improved in the company’s latest results, but revenue fell and losses stayed high.

BigBear.ai Holdings shares rose roughly 10% Thursday as the defense AI name traded near the top of the group in a stronger session for speculative AI software stocks.

The stock was last at $4.805, up 43.5 cents, after hitting a session high of $4.87 in the afternoon. Volume cleared 48 million shares. The market cap hovered around $2.28 billion.

BigBear.ai is in a crowded space—AI, defense tech, border security, government contracting. Investors want to know if recent contract wins will actually drive lasting sales growth, or just add to the company’s reported “backlog”, which is awarded work still to be delivered. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.

AI names caught a strong bid too. Palantir added roughly 7.6%, C3.ai jumped 6.5% and SoundHound AI rose 6.2%. The move in BigBear.ai got a lift from strength in the sector, not just its own trading.

BigBear.ai CFO Sean Raymond Ricker sold 10,000 shares at $4.33 each on May 22, according to a Form 4 filing posted May 26. Ricker now holds 609,256 shares directly.

BigBear.ai’s May earnings report delivered numbers for bulls to latch onto. First-quarter revenue came in at $34.4 million, with gross margin up to 34.0%, a big jump from 21.3% a year ago. Backlog climbed 14% from Q4, now $281.9 million after a $53 million classified deal. Management kept its 2026 revenue target between $135 million and $165 million.

BigBear.ai CEO Kevin McAleenan said first-quarter gains keep the company “on track” for its 2026 revenue target. He said BigBear.ai is focused on national security and trade-and-travel markets. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.

BigBear.ai is pushing further into the trade and travel space. On May 20, the company said Panama Transshipment Group will use its new AI cargo security tool built with Narval. The platform leverages biometrics and analytics to monitor cargo handoffs and flag anomalies. Troy Miller, who joined BigBear.ai in March after serving as acting U.S. Customs and Border Protection commissioner, said the focus is on “not slowing commerce” but making supply chains “smarter, more transparent, and more secure.” BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.

McAleenan called Panama a “critical gateway for global trade” and said the deployment might set up broader regional adoption. Narval chairman Mario Pérez Balladares said the future of trade is tied to “secure, trusted, and transparent” logistics networks. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.

But numbers remain messy. The company’s latest quarter saw revenue slip 0.9% year over year to $34.4 million. Net loss was $56.8 million. Management blamed the drop on lower Army program volume and fewer one-time contracts compared to last year, with Ask Sage helping offset some of the decline.

Backlog and new contracts could end up not showing up as revenue as quickly as investors expect. BigBear.ai said most of its past revenue was from federal government clients and said some contracts might be cut for convenience. The company also said backlog might not turn into real revenue in any period, or ever.

Dilution is another concern. In its filing, the company said it runs an at-the-market program, selling shares over time. It sold 142.3 million shares through sales agreements in 2025, pulling in around $628.8 million in net proceeds.

Thursday’s action shows traders still see value in the AI-defense trade. BigBear.ai now has to show if it can use its backlog, deals, and fresh deployments to pull in more revenue, and do it without leaning too much on more share offerings or government budget cycles.

Khadija Saeed is a financial markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and emerging industries. She studied economics and finance at the London School of Economics and previously worked in market research before moving into financial journalism. Her coverage focuses on the companies, innovations and economic trends influencing global investors.

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