Published: December 14, 2025
Bitcoin is heading into the final stretch of 2025 with traders split between “Santa rally” hopes and a growing list of late‑year headwinds. After setting a record above $126,000 in early October, BTC has spent much of November and December grinding through a deep pullback, repeatedly struggling to hold momentum above the low‑$90,000s. [1]
As of December 14, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $89,000, still firmly in a consolidation zone that analysts describe as fragile—supported by patient spot demand, but constrained by cautious institutional flows and defensive derivatives positioning. [2]
What happens next—especially through year‑end—will likely be driven less by a single crypto headline and more by a collision of macro events (inflation data and central banks), ETF flows, and a heavy options calendar that can “pin” price around major psychological levels.
Below is a detailed forecast for Bitcoin in December 2025, based on the most recent news, bank outlooks, and on‑chain/derivatives analyses published over the last several days.
Why Bitcoin is stuck: macro reality is overpowering the “rate cut = bullish” narrative
In theory, lower interest rates can support risk assets, including crypto. In practice, Bitcoin’s reaction to the latest U.S. policy shift has been choppy.
On December 10, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25 percentage points to a target range of 3.5%–3.75%—its third consecutive cut—while stressing that future moves depend on incoming data. [3]
That “data-dependent” caution matters. In the days after the cut, Bitcoin didn’t simply grind higher. Instead, it showed the same sensitivity as tech stocks to broader risk sentiment—especially after Oracle’s earnings and forward guidancereignited concerns about whether AI spending is translating into profits quickly enough. Reuters reported Bitcoin dipping below $90,000 amid those AI‑related risk‑appetite jitters. [4]
December takeaway: for the rest of the month, Bitcoin is trading like a global risk barometer—reacting not just to crypto-specific catalysts, but to macro surprises and equity-market mood.
The biggest “forecast reset” of the month: Standard Chartered halves its 2025 target
One of the most important December developments isn’t a chart pattern—it’s a wall-street forecast downgrade.
Standard Chartered’s digital-assets research head Geoff Kendrick cut the bank’s year‑end 2025 Bitcoin target from $200,000 to $100,000, arguing that the post‑October drawdown and weakening demand from “bitcoin treasury” corporate buyers has changed the near-term math. [5]
Kendrick described the environment as a “cold breeze”—not a full-blown crypto winter—but still enough to force a reset in expectations. [6]
From today’s price near $89,000, a move to $100,000 by December 31 would require roughly a 12%+ rally in about two weeks—possible in crypto, but not easy without a clear catalyst and improving flows.
ETF flows: the institutional engine is sputtering, even if broader ETP flows improved
The key issue: IBIT’s record outflow streak
Bitcoin’s spot ETF era has made flows more important—and right now the flow picture is mixed.
Multiple reports this month highlighted that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has been bleeding capital for weeks. Bloomberg reported more than $2.7 billion pulled over a five‑week stretch, with the fund on pace for a sixth straight week of net outflows at the time of that report. [7]
Glassnode’s latest “Week On‑Chain” analysis also pointed to negative ETF flows and “thin” spot liquidity as reasons Bitcoin remains more sensitive to macro shocks. [8]
The stabilizer: broader digital-asset ETP inflows ticked up
Not all institutional flow data is bearish.
CoinShares reported that digital asset ETPs saw $716 million in weekly inflows (data published within the last week), lifting total crypto ETP assets under management to $180 billion—still below the prior peak, but indicating demand hasn’t vanished. [9]
December takeaway: ETF/ETP flows aren’t delivering the “straight up” impulse bulls wanted—but they’re also not a one-way collapse. For the rest of December, daily ETF flow direction may matter as much as any single technical level.
Derivatives and thin liquidity: why $90,000 and $100,000 are acting like magnets
Late December often brings thinner liquidity, and that effect can be amplified by derivatives positioning.
Near-term expiries have centered on ~$90,000 “max pain”
In the last several days, multiple market updates flagged large BTC options expiries with max pain near $90,000, a level that can influence hedging flows as traders adjust positions into settlement. [10]
But the bigger date to watch is late month: Dec. 26
CryptoSlate reported Bitcoin’s options market is highly focused on December 26, 2025, with open interest clustering around $100,000, making “six figures” the key battleground into year-end. [11]
This doesn’t mean Bitcoin must settle at $90k or $100k. But it does help explain why price action can feel “stuck” even when headlines look bullish: hedging flows can dampen moves until the market clears major expiries.
December takeaway: expect “sticky” price action around round numbers—followed by sharper moves when expiry-related positioning fades.
On-chain reality check: the levels analysts are watching into year-end
For December 2025, one of the most widely-cited “map” views is coming from Glassnode’s cost‑basis framework.
In its Dec. 10 Week On‑Chain report, Glassnode described Bitcoin as trapped in a structurally fragile range and highlighted three important reference levels: [12]
- True Market Mean: ~$81,300 (a key “bottom formation zone” unless macro shocks worsen)
- 0.75 cost-basis quantile: ~$95,000 (a threshold bulls need to reclaim)
- Short‑Term Holder (STH) cost basis: ~$102,700 (a higher ceiling that often defines trend recovery)
That framework lines up with how December has traded: rebounds are meeting resistance below the mid‑$90,000s, while heavy demand has repeatedly appeared closer to the low‑$80,000s and mid‑$80,000s (including the “mid‑$80K” rebound Glassnode referenced in its Market Pulse update earlier this month). [13]
CoinDesk also reported that multiple metrics point to strong support near $80,000, reinforcing the idea that the market has identified a zone where buyers are willing to step in—at least for now. [14]
December takeaway: if BTC can’t reclaim ~$95k, the market will keep treating rallies as fragile. If ~$81k breaks, downside could accelerate quickly because the “anchoring” zone fails.
The December 2025 Bitcoin forecast: 3 scenarios for the rest of the month
No single analyst has a crystal ball—especially in a market as reflexive as crypto. But combining the most recent bank outlooks, on‑chain thresholds, ETF flow signals, and the late‑month macro calendar produces three practical scenarios.
Scenario 1: Base case — range trading dominates (most likely)
What it looks like: Bitcoin chops in a broad band, roughly $81k–$95k, with frequent reversals around $90k–$94k.
Why it happens:
- ETF flows remain mixed/soft. [15]
- Options positioning keeps pulling price toward major strikes. [16]
- Traders stay cautious into late‑December macro events.
What would confirm it: repeated failure to hold above the ~$95k threshold Glassnode highlighted, with dips being bought before ~$81k. [17]
Scenario 2: Bull case — BTC pushes back toward $100,000 (possible, but needs catalysts)
What it looks like: Bitcoin reclaims ~$95k, then makes a run at $100,000 as flows and sentiment improve.
What could drive it:
- A “risk‑on” macro surprise (cooler inflation data) that boosts equities and crypto together.
- A stabilization in ETF flows, or a swing back into consistent inflows. [18]
- A post‑expiry move that frees price from hedging pressure near $90k. [19]
What analysts are pointing to: CryptoQuant analysis cited by The Block suggested that if selling pressure stays low, a relief rally could lift BTC toward ~$99k, and potentially higher (into the low‑$100k area) if conditions align. [20]
How this fits big-bank forecasts: Standard Chartered’s $100,000 year‑end call implies a meaningful late‑month rally from current levels, but the bank also framed the current phase as a reset—not a collapse. [21]
Scenario 3: Bear case — a retest of the low-$80,000s (macro shock or liquidity slip)
What it looks like: Bitcoin loses the mid‑$80,000s and revisits the ~$81,300 True Market Mean zone, with risk of deeper downside if panic returns.
What could trigger it:
- An upside inflation surprise that pressures risk assets.
- A sharper risk‑off wave in global markets (tech drawdown, credit stress, geopolitics).
- Renewed ETF outflows and weaker bids as liquidity thins further into holidays. [22]
Glassnode explicitly noted that the True Market Mean remains the most likely bottom‑formation zone “barring a new macro shock.” [23]
The key dates that could decide Bitcoin’s December close
If you’re looking for a short list of what could break the range, these are the most time-sensitive catalysts left in December:
- U.S. CPI release (November 2025 data): Thursday, Dec. 18
The Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule shows the Nov. 2025 CPI is due Dec. 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET. [24] - Bank of Japan policy meeting: Dec. 18–19
Reuters reported markets have largely priced a BOJ hike at the Dec. 18–19 meeting, with focus on how far tightening could go. A BOJ surprise can ripple through global yields, FX, and liquidity expectations—factors crypto has been increasingly sensitive to. [25] - Late‑month options positioning (Dec. 26 focal point)
With attention on $100,000 into the Dec. 26 expiry cluster, post‑expiry price action may become more directional—especially if ETF flows also shift. [26]
Where long-term forecasts fit (and why they may not matter for the next 2 weeks)
It’s worth separating December 2025 forecasting from 2026 narratives.
- Standard Chartered’s revised target is $100,000 by end‑2025, but also maintains a much longer runway outlook (with $500k pushed out to 2030 in some reports). [27]
- JPMorgan strategists have argued Bitcoin’s “fair value” could be near $170,000 under a volatility‑adjusted gold framework—typically framed as a 6–12 month horizon—while warning that Strategy-related risks and market structure still matter. [28]
Those longer-range calls can influence sentiment, but they don’t automatically translate into a straight-line move before December 31. In the near term, flows, options, and macro data tend to dominate.
Bottom line forecast for Bitcoin in December 2025
Bitcoin’s most probable path into year‑end is a range‑first market:
- Above ~$95k: bulls start to regain control, with $100k back on the table. [29]
- Below the mid‑$80ks: risk rises of a deeper retest toward ~$81k support zones highlighted by on‑chain cost‑basis models. [30]
- Between ~$85k and ~$95k: expect choppy trading shaped by ETF flow swings, thin holiday liquidity, and options positioning—especially around $90k and $100k. [31]
Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto markets are volatile, and forecasts can change quickly with macro data, liquidity conditions, or market structure shifts.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. insights.glassnode.com, 3. www.federalreserve.gov, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.bloomberg.com, 8. insights.glassnode.com, 9. coinshares.com, 10. www.tradingview.com, 11. cryptoslate.com, 12. insights.glassnode.com, 13. insights.glassnode.com, 14. www.coindesk.com, 15. insights.glassnode.com, 16. cryptoslate.com, 17. insights.glassnode.com, 18. coinshares.com, 19. cryptoslate.com, 20. www.theblock.co, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. insights.glassnode.com, 23. insights.glassnode.com, 24. www.bls.gov, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. cryptoslate.com, 27. www.marketwatch.com, 28. www.marketwatch.com, 29. insights.glassnode.com, 30. insights.glassnode.com, 31. insights.glassnode.com
