Bitcoin is ending Thursday’s U.S. session in recovery mode after an ugly intraday slide below $90,000, as traders digest a fresh Federal Reserve rate cut, wobbly AI stocks, and mixed signals from ETF flows.
As of around 4 p.m. EST on December 11, 2025, Bitcoin is trading in the low‑$92,000 area on major exchanges — modestly lower on the day and still locked in the broad $88,000–$94,000 range that has defined December so far. Different data providers show spot prices between roughly $91,500 and $92,800, with a 24‑hour range of about $89,400 to $92,600. CoinGecko+1
That leaves BTC down roughly 27% from its early‑October all‑time high near $126,000, but far above the cycle low near $82,000 seen after October’s sharp liquidation wave. Carbon Credits+1
Bitcoin price today: key levels at the close
Based on major price trackers and exchange data, here’s how Bitcoin looks into the close on December 11, 2025:
- Spot price: ~$92,000 per BTC (varies slightly by exchange) CoinGecko
- 24‑hour range: Roughly $89,400 – $94,200, with a morning spike to the mid‑$94Ks followed by a sharp sell‑off below $90K before recovering. Cryptonews
- Daily performance: Down around 1–3% versus Wednesday, depending on the index you use. CoinGecko+1
- Weekly move: Roughly ‑3% over the last seven days, trading in about the $88,200–$94,300 band. Cryptonews+1
- Distance from ATH: About 27% below the October all‑time high just above $126,000. Carbon Credits+1
So while today felt volatile — especially for anyone watching that dip into the high‑$80Ks — the bigger picture is still a consolidation phase between the mid‑$80Ks and mid‑$90Ks.
Why did Bitcoin slip below $90K today?
1. AI worries hit risk appetite after Oracle earnings
The trigger for today’s flush was not strictly crypto‑native. Overnight and into the U.S. morning, investors reacted to disappointing guidance from Oracle, whose earnings highlighted that big spending on AI infrastructure isn’t yet translating into the profits markets were hoping for. Reuters+1
That disappointment hit AI‑linked tech stocks, and sentiment spilled over into crypto:
- Reuters reports that Bitcoin briefly fell back under $90,000, with Ether dropping more than 4%, as concerns about AI profitability dented broader risk appetite. Reuters
- The Times and other outlets similarly link today’s slide to Oracle’s results and growing skepticism about the near‑term payoff of massive AI investments. The Times
In other words: the “AI trade” wobbling is weighing on the “high beta” end of markets — and that still includes Bitcoin.
2. A Fed cut that felt more “hawkish” than “dovish”
Yesterday’s Federal Reserve decision also looms large in the background:
- The Fed delivered its third 25‑basis‑point cut of the year, taking the policy rate to a 3.5–3.75% range. Cryptonews
- The FOMC vote was split 9–3, with some members wanting no cut and one favoring a bigger move — a sign of internal disagreement about how much easing is left. Investing
Coverage from CryptoNews and Investing.com notes that the tone came across as cautious: the Fed signaled concern about inflation and a weakening labor market, but did not promise a rapid path of further cuts. That uncertainty hit “liquidity‑sensitive” assets like BTC hard:
- About $440 million in crypto positions were liquidated within hours of the decision, the majority in long futures positions, according to derivatives data cited by Investing.com. Investing
- CryptoNews describes BTC as trading in a wide $88,200–$94,267 band over the past week, with today’s move seen as part of that choppy post‑Fed digestion. Cryptonews
3. Crypto diverges from record‑high stocks
What’s particularly striking today is the divergence between crypto and stocks:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both pushed to or near record highs intraday on Thursday. Investopedia
- Yet Bitcoin slipped toward the lower end of its recent trading range, trading around $91,100 while the Dow was surging more than 650 points. Investopedia+1
Reuters and Bloomberg both emphasize this split: even as traditional risk assets rally on rate‑cut hopes, Bitcoin and other coins are still processing October’s huge liquidation and remain more fragile to sentiment swings. Reuters+2Bloomberg+2
ETF flows and on‑chain data: is this a crash or a mid‑cycle reset?
Underneath the price action, analysts are obsessing over ETF flows and on‑chain metrics — and the takeaway is more nuanced than “crypto winter.”
Spot Bitcoin ETFs: strong but concentrated inflows
Several reports today highlight that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs remain a major source of demand:
- U.S. spot BTC ETFs took in about $223–224 million in net inflows on December 10, with BlackRock’s IBIT capturing roughly $193 million of that on its own. Cryptonews+2Trading News+2
- Across all spot BTC ETFs, around 1.36 million BTC are now held in these vehicles — about 6.9% of circulating supply, with total ETF assets somewhere in the $160–170 billion range. Trading News+1
However, those flows are heavily skewed:
- CryptoDNES and TradingNEWS both stress that most of the inflow is concentrating into a single fund (IBIT), while older products see little demand or even outflows — suggesting reallocation inside the ETF complex, not always fresh capital. Trading News+1
That’s great for BlackRock, but it means ETF headlines can overstate true net new buying pressure on BTC itself.
$732B in new Bitcoin capital since 2022
Longer‑term on‑chain metrics look surprisingly strong:
- A new analysis from 24/7 Wall St. estimates $732 billion in net new capital has flowed into Bitcoin since the November 2022 cycle low, more than all previous cycles combined. 24/7 Wall St.
- That wave of capital has driven Bitcoin’s realized market cap (the value of coins at their last on‑chain move) to about $1.1 trillion, a record high even though spot price is well below the October peak. 24/7 Wall St.+1
- One‑year realized volatility has dropped from around 84% in the 2021 mania to roughly 43% today, pointing to deeper liquidity and a larger base of “patient” holders. 24/7 Wall St.+1
This is why multiple outlets describe today’s environment as a “mid‑cycle reset” rather than a new crypto winter: leverage is being flushed out, but long‑term capital and ETF structures are still in place and growing. Investing.com+2Trading News+2
What analysts are watching now: key BTC levels
With Bitcoin stuck in a wide, choppy range, traders are paying extraordinary attention to a handful of price levels.
Immediate support: $91,800–$92,000
Several analyses published today cluster around the same short‑term floor:
- 99Bitcoins notes Bitcoin is trading around $92,585 and argues that the $91,800 area is a “key support”following the Fed‑driven volatility, with futures open interest near $59.2 billion. 99Bitcoins
- CryptoNews calls $92,000 the pivotal line:
- A sustained move below $92,000 opens the door to $87,000 and potentially $83,000.
- A steady push back above $92,000 could set up a run at $98,000, $100,600, $106,000, and even $108,000 if momentum returns. Cryptonews
Right now, into the close, BTC is hovering only slightly above those support zones — which helps explain the tense tone on crypto trading desks.
Deeper support: $88,000
Investing.com’s macro‑heavy note frames $88,000 as the deeper structural support that matters if today’s floor fails:
- Analysts there see the current pullback as a “broad deleveraging wave” after the Fed cut and AI‑stock wobble, with $88K as key downside support and $94–96K as near‑term resistance. Investing
Put simply:
- Above $92K: bulls can argue it’s just noisy consolidation in a larger uptrend.
- Below $88K: bears gain the narrative, with October’s $82K lows back in play.
Upside targets: $98K–$111K and beyond
On the topside, today’s research and forecast pieces highlight a few milestones:
- Short‑term traders are focused on reclaiming $94–96K and then $100K–101K, which 99Bitcoins and others see as the next liquidity pocket if BTC can hold that $91.8K support. 99Bitcoins+1
- A weekly outlook from CoinDCX projects that, if the current consolidation breaks higher, BTC could rise about 22–23% from current levels to around $111,500 by December 2025, driven by steady ETF inflows, limited supply and improving sentiment. CoinDCX
Those are scenarios, not guarantees — but they show how tightly today’s range is linked to the next big directional move.
Wall Street and crypto forecasts for 2025–2026
Today also brought fresh (and in some cases, toned‑down) long‑term projections.
Standard Chartered: 2025 target cut to $100K, still ultra‑bullish by 2030
Standard Chartered grabbed headlines by cutting its year‑end 2025 Bitcoin target from $200,000 down to $100,000:
- The bank argues that corporate treasury accumulation has largely run its course, so the next leg higher will depend mainly on ETF demand rather than companies loading BTC onto their balance sheets. Reuters+1
- Even with the downgrade, Standard Chartered still projects Bitcoin could reach around $500,000 by 2030, according to analysis summarized by AInvest. AInvest
So their message is essentially: the timeline has shifted, but the big‑picture thesis is intact.
JPMorgan & 24/7 Wall St: $94K as “floor,” $170K by 2026
A separate forecast from 24/7 Wall St. cites JPMorgan strategists calling:
- About $94,000 a “production‑cost floor” for Bitcoin,
- And a potential path to around $170,000 by 2026 as BTC’s volatility profile converges closer to gold’s and institutional adoption deepens. 24/7 Wall St.
That would be roughly a doubling from today’s ~$92K area — aggressive, but more measured than some past cycle targets.
CoinDCX and others: 2025–2026 still seen as net bullish
CoinDCX’s weekly outlook, published today, reflects a middle‑of‑the‑road bullish stance:
- Target: ~$111,500 by December 2025,
- Followed by a possible move to $117,000 in early 2026, assuming ETF demand remains strong and macro conditions don’t deteriorate materially. CoinDCX
Meanwhile, multiple research notes from AInvest and 24/7 Wall St. describe the current environment as:
- A maturing, institutional‑grade Bitcoin market,
- With ETF‑driven liquidity, a realized cap at record highs, and volatility structurally lower than in prior boom‑and‑bust cycles. AInvest+1
The common theme: the cycle isn’t over, but it’s slowing down.
How today’s macro backdrop shapes the BTC outlook
To understand where Bitcoin might go next, it’s worth zooming out a bit.
Rate cuts, but not a free‑money era
The Fed has started cutting, but not in a way that screams “easy money forever”:
- The policy range is now 3.5–3.75%, with the FOMC split and officials signaling that future cuts are conditional on incoming data. Cryptonews+1
- Historically in this cycle, one analysis notes that Bitcoin fell after six of seven Fed meetings in 2025, with declines as steep as 29% around later‑in‑the‑year decisions. Investing
So far, this looks less like the start of an explosive new liquidity wave, and more like a controlled glide path — which can be both good (less crash risk) and bad (less speculative juice) for BTC.
AI unwinds and sector rotations
Today’s AI‑linked sell‑off, triggered by Oracle’s warning that AI infrastructure costs may be outpacing revenue, reinforces another theme: not all “tech risk” moves together anymore. Reuters+1
- Investors rotated into non‑tech blue chips in the Dow (Visa, Home Depot, UnitedHealth), while trimming high‑multiple AI names. Investopedia
- Bitcoin, for now, is trading more like a high‑beta macro asset than a defensive store of value — it’s reacting to shifts in risk sentiment, leverage, and ETF flows at least as much as to its own halving cycle.
What this means for traders and long‑term holders
Not investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile and you can lose all the money you put in.
Putting today’s moves into a simple framework:
Short‑term (days to weeks)
- Bullish scenario:
- BTC continues to defend the $91,800–$92,000 area. 99Bitcoins+1
- It grinds back above $94K–$96K, taking out the near‑term resistance band highlighted by several macro and technical analysts. Investing
- ETF flows remain net positive, not just in IBIT but across the broader complex. Trading News+2CryptoDnes.bg+2
- Bearish scenario:
- BTC loses $92K convincingly and retests $88K, as mapped out by CryptoNews and Investing.com. Cryptonews+1
- A break of $88K would put the focus back on $83K–$82K — the area of October’s post‑liquidation low. Cryptonews+1
In both cases, derivatives positioning and funding rates are crucial: large clusters of leverage can turn otherwise mild macro headlines into sharp intraday wicks.
Medium‑term (into late 2025 and 2026)
Most of today’s research agrees on a few points:
- Bitcoin is well off its October peak but supported by:
- Record on‑chain capital inflows,
- ETF‑driven institutional participation, and
- A growing role as a macro portfolio asset rather than just a speculative token. AInvest+224/7 Wall St.+2
- The cycle is maturing, with lower volatility and deeper liquidity, which can mean:
- Smaller percentage drawdowns than in past crashes,
- But also potentially more drawn‑out consolidation phases between big rallies. 24/7 Wall St.+1
Price targets differ — $100K, $111K, $170K — but the path the market actually takes will depend heavily on:
- How fast the Fed continues cutting (or pauses),
- Whether AI and tech valuations stabilize,
- And whether ETF inflows broaden beyond a single dominant product.
Bottom line: Bitcoin price today, at a glance
- BTC is finishing December 11, 2025, around $92K, after a volatile session that briefly dragged it below $90K. CoinGecko+1
- The day’s weakness tracks back to a “hawkish” Fed rate cut, a split FOMC, and AI‑driven risk aversionfollowing Oracle’s results — even as U.S. stock indexes push toward record territory. Cryptonews+2Investing.com+2
- Under the surface, record ETF and on‑chain capital suggest a mid‑cycle reset rather than a structural collapse, with key support around $92K and $88K, and resistance above $94K–$96K. Investing.com+2Cryptonews+2
- Forecasts published today span from $100K by end‑2025 (Standard Chartered) to $111K (CoinDCX) and $170K by 2026 (JPMorgan) — all contingent on continued institutional demand and macro tailwinds. 24/7 Wall St.+3Reuters+3AInvest+3
For now, Bitcoin remains in a tense standoff near the bottom half of its recent range. Whether the next decisive move is a breakout toward six figures or another trip toward the mid‑$80Ks will likely hinge on the next round of Fed commentary, AI earnings headlines, and those all‑important ETF flow numbers.
