LONDON, May 15, 2026, 08:54 BST
- H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, cleared the Senate Banking Committee in a 15-9 vote, moving the crypto market-structure bill to the Senate floor.
- Bitcoin hovered close to $80,837 following an earlier spike to $81,974. Shares of Coinbase, Robinhood, and Strategy all tacked on roughly 5%.
- Polymarket put the odds of the Clarity Act passing this year at 68%, but rate markets shrugged, with little sign of demand for Fed cuts.
Bitcoin stayed north of $80,000, while shares tied to crypto jumped, as the U.S. Senate Banking Committee finally pushed ahead a crypto regulation bill that digital-asset companies have been waiting for. On Friday, it wasn’t token price action but Capitol Hill that took the lead in shaping crypto’s direction.
After years of crypto firms navigating a confusing web of court decisions, agency crackdowns, and conflicting state regulations, this vote finally packs some weight. The Clarity Act aims to spell out whether a crypto token falls under the securities or commodities banner—or neither—and would split authority between the SEC and the CFTC, the two federal watchdogs overseeing securities and commodities, respectively.
Traders didn’t shrug off the vote. Bitcoin climbed to $80,837, up about $1,004 from the last close. Ether drifted near $2,266, barely budging. Coinbase touched $212.01, Robinhood $80.70, and Strategy $186.97—each jumping roughly 5% for the session.
The committee advanced the bill with a 15-9 vote, sending it to the Senate floor. Reuters noted every Republican on the panel voted yes, along with Democrats Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks. Both Democrats, however, warned their floor votes weren’t guaranteed.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong described the vote as “a big opportunity to move America’s financial system forward,” he said in a post on X. Miller Whitehouse-Levine, who heads the Solana Policy Institute, told Reuters: “It’s taken years of work to get to this point.” X (formerly Twitter)
Stablecoins, pegged to the dollar, have emerged as the central sticking point. Banks aren’t happy with crypto outfits offering rewards that resemble deposit interest. On the other side, crypto players insist activity-based perks should stay. The legislation would also extend Bank Secrecy Act rules—think anti-money-laundering checks and customer vetting—to digital commodity brokers, dealers, and exchanges.
ETF flows didn’t send a clear message. According to Farside Investors, U.S. spot bitcoin funds went from $630.4 million in net outflows on May 13 to $131.3 million in net inflows by May 14. Investors aren’t jumping in headfirst—a dose of policy optimism hasn’t wiped out nerves after last week’s turbulence.
Prediction markets were leaning progress, not delivering guarantees. On Polymarket, traders saw a 68% shot that the Clarity Act gets signed into law in 2026, with roughly $906,400 changing hands. Its June Fed market had odds of a rate hold at a hefty 98%. Over at Kalshi, the rates page pegged “exactly 0 cuts” in 2026 at 68% and one cut at 17%—a clear signal that risk assets are still staring down elevated rates. Polymarket
Alex Thorn, who leads firmwide research at Galaxy, flagged ahead of the vote: bipartisan backing in committee was the “comfortable path” for the bill. Galaxy put the odds at 55% for the legislation to become law in 2026, according to Thorn’s note. He also cautioned that a party-line markup could undermine its chances on the floor. Galaxy
There’s no shortage of warnings. Senator Elizabeth Warren, the committee’s top Democrat, slammed the bill as “not ready for prime time,” arguing it sidesteps issues around consumer protection, national security, and ethics. A handful of Democrats also flagged what they saw as flimsy anti-money-laundering rules, and pointed out the bill does nothing to stop political figures from cashing in on crypto ventures, Reuters noted. Senate Banking Committee
The bill isn’t through yet—it faces a full Senate vote, and lawmakers have to hash out differences with the House. House Financial Services Chair French Hill and House Agriculture Chair G.T. Thompson said the Banking Committee’s approval keeps things moving, but both House and Senate panels still need to nail down a final framework before the measure goes to President Donald Trump.
Crypto’s rally isn’t about a technical breakout just yet—it’s running on policy developments. The Senate vote gave bitcoin a bump, along with shares linked to U.S. regulatory moves. Still, ETF flows, shifting rate-cut probabilities, and pushback from Democrats are reminders that committee approval doesn’t mean the deal is done for traders.
