London, Feb 26, 2026, 18:57 GMT — Regular session
- Brent climbed roughly 1.7% after dipping earlier in the session
- Traders watched Geneva talks closely, eyeing how quickly Iranian supply risks might move.
- OPEC+ convenes March 1, and a possible output shift for April is up for discussion again.
Brent crude futures climbed over $1 on Thursday, shaking off earlier losses. Traders zeroed in on fresh U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, scanning for signs of rising tensions or potential breakthroughs that might alter supply dynamics.
Traders are eyeing the Geneva talks as more than diplomatic theater—there’s real anxiety over supply disruptions. If negotiations collapse, the likelihood of military escalation climbs in a region critical for crude exports. On the flip side, any real progress might pave the way for sanctions relief, setting up a potential return of Iranian barrels.
Brent closed Wednesday at $70.85 a barrel, still hovering close to its latest highs despite U.S. inventory numbers showing plenty of supply.
“Media reports coming out seem to show that things are not going so great in Geneva,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital. He pointed out that traders were interpreting the headlines as a signal that the risk of hostilities was climbing. MarketScreener
Traders aren’t missing the obvious risk. “If we do get a deal with Iran, that would be very bearish for prices,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group, pointing to the potential flood of supply if sanctions get lifted. CNA
U.S. commercial crude stocks jumped 16.0 million barrels last week, reaching 435.8 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration reported. That’s a sizable build—typically a bearish signal for prices.
The inventory surprise barely made a dent. UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo called the report bearish, but with geopolitics setting the tone for crude lately, its influence was muted.
Supply policy comes up next. According to sources cited by Reuters, OPEC+ will consider a 137,000 barrels-per-day boost for April when eight of its main members gather on March 1. (A barrel per day is the industry’s usual unit of oil production.)
The move drops into a market split on outlook. The International Energy Agency projects oversupply for this year. OPEC+ is still talking up a “balanced market.” Rising geopolitical risk has, for now, obscured weaker cues from demand and inventories. Reuters
Saudi Arabia is ramping up both output and exports, sources say, as a hedge against possible Middle East supply shocks if the U.S. launches a strike on Iran. The move is part of broader contingency planning in the background.
But risk isn’t one-directional. Should the Geneva talks ease friction and OPEC+ decide to pump more oil into a market already seeing inventories climb, Brent might lose its weekly advance in a hurry. That risk premium can vanish fast when the news shifts.
Traders are tuned in for a statement from the U.S.-Iran talks expected later Thursday, with eyes quickly shifting to Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting for signals on April output.
