NEW YORK, Feb 26, 2026, 13:49 (EST) — Regular session
- Brent climbed $1.17 to $72.02, while WTI tacked on 87 cents, reaching $66.29
- U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva drew traders’ attention, with possible supply disruptions or an easing of sanctions in play.
- U.S. crude stockpiles surged by 16 million barrels last week. OPEC+ is set to meet on March 1.
Oil jumped over $1 on Thursday, bouncing back from earlier swings as traders zeroed in on the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva. Brent crude ended up $1.17, or 1.65%, at $72.02 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate tacked on 87 cents, or 1.33%, to $66.29. “Not going so great” for diplomacy, said John Kilduff of Again Capital, reacting to the headlines. Phil Flynn at Price Futures Group warned that any deal lifting sanctions would spell a “bearish” turn for crude. Reuters
These negotiations carry weight—they can tilt supply either way. With U.S. President Donald Trump ramping up military presence in the Middle East and Washington tightening pressure on Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, traders point to the standoff tacking on an estimated $3 to $4 per barrel to U.S. crude. That’s the geopolitical risk premium buyers shell out for potential supply shocks.
Bearish inventory data dropped, but jitters lingered regardless. Oil finished the session nearly flat on Wednesday—even as U.S. crude stockpiles jumped far more than expected. UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo called the report bearish, though he noted the price reaction was “limited” since market attention had shifted. Reuters
The Energy Information Administration reported a 16.0 million barrel jump in U.S. commercial crude inventories for the week ended Feb. 20, lifting the total to 435.8 million barrels. Total commercial petroleum inventories climbed 11.2 million barrels. Gasoline stocks, however, slipped by 1.0 million barrels.
Refinery inputs slipped to 15.7 million barrels per day, a drop of 416,000 barrels from the week before, according to the EIA. Crude imports ticked up, now at 6.7 million barrels per day. Refiners operated at 88.6% of capacity.
OPEC+ is back in focus, with eight main members scheduled to meet March 1. According to three sources cited by Reuters, the group—which counts Russia among its allies and includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries—is expected to discuss a 137,000-barrel-per-day output rise for April. That would end a three-month freeze.
Europe’s supply backdrop just got another wrinkle. According to EU sanctions envoy David O’Sullivan, the European Union wants to line up with G7 allies before finalizing a planned ban targeting maritime services tied to Russian seaborne crude exports.
The market’s split. Hints of progress in the Geneva talks—especially anything pointing to sanctions relief—could wipe out the risk premium in a hurry. On the other side, a series of U.S. stock builds keeps traders watching demand signals and refinery throughput.
Markets are now looking to the Geneva talks set for later Thursday for the next key signal. Afterward, attention shifts quickly to the OPEC+ meeting on March 1, where traders will be alert for any changes to output plans as the group faces a market shaken by political tensions and supply concerns.
