NEW YORK, August 10, 2026, 12:52 EDT — Trading on US equity markets progressed as normal, with the NYSE maintaining its standard schedule through the 16:00 EDT session close.
- Brent crude rose 3.06% to $86.11 after Iran said reopening the Hormuz Strait depends on U.S. concessions.
- US crude gained 3.26% to reach $80.73, and the S&P 500 was little changed.
- The State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF NYSEARCA:XLE was up 3.45% at 12:30 EDT.
- The energy sector posted a single-day gain that surpassed the S&P 500’s 3.1% rise as it approached the 8,000 level.
Oil prices jumped more than 3% on Monday when Iran announced terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Energy shares advanced, while leading US indexes remained near Friday’s record levels.
The sector’s activity for the day has already exceeded the S&P 500’s outstanding distance to the 8,000 mark. On Monday, JPMorgan Chase & Co. NYSE:JPM lifted its year-end target to 8,000, up from 7,800.
Reuters documented cross-asset movements on Monday, noting oil prices rose, equities held steady, yields increased, and the dollar strengthened.
| Market | Level | Session move | Investor signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | $86.11 a barrel | +3.06% | Hormuz risk premium moves higher |
| West Texas Intermediate crude | $80.73 a barrel | +3.26% | US oil followed Brent upward |
| S&P 500 | 7,759.27 | +0.02% | Gains at all-time highs lost steam |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,645.08 | -0.17% | Tech shares lagged overall |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 4.688% | +3.03 basis points | Inflation and issuance weighed |
| US dollar index | 99.79 | +0.15% | Defensive positioning edged higher |
Iran said a transit agreement with Oman was nearing completion, but maintained that reopening the waterway depended on compensation, sanctions relief, and an end to military threats.
Disruption is evident in official flow data. The US Energy Information Administration reports a substantial decline in oil shipments passing through Hormuz during early 2026.
| Period | Hormuz oil flow | World oil supply | Flow as share of supply |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Q 2025 | 20.4 million b/d | 105.2 million b/d | 19.4% |
| 2Q 2025 | 20.2 million b/d | 108.0 million b/d | 18.7% |
| 3Q 2025 | 20.5 million b/d | 108.5 million b/d | 18.9% |
| 4Q 2025 | 20.7 million b/d | 103.8 million b/d | 19.9% |
| 1Q 2026 | 14.6 million b/d | 95.4 million b/d | 15.3% |
Oil transit in the first quarter dropped by 6.1 million barrels per day from the prior quarter, a fall of 29.5%. However, Hormuz still accounted for 15.3% of worldwide oil supply movement.
Monday’s jump did not reach the crisis peak. Brent remained a minimum of 31.7% below its late April value, when it surpassed $126.
Energy stocks tracked moves in crude prices, with Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE:XOM and Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX advancing. Delta Air Lines, Inc. NYSE:DAL traded lower. Prices were registered between 12:11 and 12:39 EDT.
| Security | Price | Day move | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF NYSEARCA:XLE | $59.48 | +3.45% | U.S. oil and gas sector |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE:XOM | $158.09 | +3.30% | Major oil producer |
| Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX | $193.10 | +3.50% | Major integrated oil |
| Delta Air Lines, Inc. NYSE:DAL | $90.03 | -1.43% | Fuel price exposure |
The split was evident. Oil producers climbed alongside gains in crude, while Delta fell. The wider S&P 500 saw minimal movement.
Investors maintained a bullish stance, but with conditions attached. JPMorgan’s target and the outlook from Edwards Asset Management were predicated on continued earnings growth. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. NYSE:JEF upheld its outlook for steady rates, provided that oil prices stabilise.
| Forecaster | Call | Prior or reference | Key condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan | S&P 500 projected at 8,000 | Previous goal was 7,800; 3.1% above Friday’s close | 2026 EPS estimate is $365 |
| Edwards Asset Management | S&P 500 forecast to hit 8,080 | 4.2% greater than Friday’s closing | 2027 EPS set to reach $400 or more |
| Jefferies | Fed not expected to hike rates in 2026 | Central bank policy rate to remain unchanged | Oil values stay steady or edge lower |
| Reuters economist poll | July CPI seen at 3.4% | Came in at 3.5% for June | Figures due on Wednesday |
JPMorgan raised its earnings estimate for 2026 to $365, previously $350. The 2027 forecast was adjusted upwards to $420 from $390. The price target remains based on a 20-times forward multiple.
“That doesn’t suggest a steady rise, and I expect a volatile path to 8,080, with considerable swings along the way,” Bob Edwards, Chief Investment Officer at Edwards Asset, said. Barron’s live coverage
Mohit Kumar, senior European economist at Jefferies, said, “We are keeping our view of no hikes from the Fed for this year.” He cited stable and falling oil prices as the reason for this expectation. Reuters
Bonds faced extra downward pressure as the yield on the 10-year note moved higher, with markets bracing for $125 billion in Treasury auctions this week. Higher oil prices could further slow the rate of disinflation.
There are risks whichever outcome occurs. An agreement concerning Hormuz could end oil’s premium and reverse some of the gains in energy markets. Failure in talks may push Brent back up to its April peak, cutting into transport margins and raising inflation expectations.
Traders are watching Wednesday’s CPI report as the next major signal. An outcome at or below 3.4%, together with softer oil prices, would boost expectations that interest rates will not rise again. A higher reading, with Brent crude staying above $86, could challenge that view.
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