HOUSTON, Feb 26, 2026, 13:21 CST — Regular session
NYMEX heating oil (NY Harbor ULSD) futures edged up roughly 0.4% Thursday, hovering at $2.5413 a gallon. Prices moved around, ranging from $2.4826 to $2.5892. Close to 63,900 contracts had changed hands.
Why does this matter? Traders remain focused on distillate supply — that’s heating oil and diesel — as the pinch point, despite a surge in crude stockpiles. Last week, U.S. distillate inventories edged up by 0.3 million barrels to 120.4 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration. Still, that leaves stocks about 5% below the five-year seasonal average.
The push and pull was clear in cash markets, too. Refinitiv’s spot data—posted by EIA—put New York Harbor heating oil at $2.58 a gallon at the Feb. 25 close, down 1.9% for the day. The Gulf Coast 3:2:1 crack spread fell to $11.51 a barrel. That “crack” marks the difference between crude oil input costs and refined fuel prices, giving a snapshot of refinery margins. U.S. Energy Information Administration
Heating oil moved in step with crude, lifted by Geneva headlines that continued to support a risk premium. Brent advanced $1.17 to $72.02 a barrel, while U.S. WTI tacked on 87 cents, reaching $66.29 by late morning in New York. Both benchmarks had earlier dropped over $1, according to Reuters.
John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, flagged media chatter hinting that “things are not going so great in Geneva”—a turn that yanked crude off session lows as traders recalibrated, bracing for tougher supply risks. Reuters
Heating oil may be for winter, but on most days it moves alongside diesel. Prices shift depending on refinery yields, industrial demand from trucks and factories, and how much stockpiled fuel the Northeast has heading into March.
The contract turns quickly. If U.S.-Iran negotiations show movement, crude’s supply anxiety could ease and heating oil might follow lower. On the other hand, another build in inventories would challenge the notion that distillates remain scarce.
Now, attention shifts to the OPEC+ gathering slated for Sunday, March 1. The alliance is weighing a small bump in April output, careful not to tip the balance in a market already pushed higher by geopolitical strains.
Looking ahead, traders are waiting for the next EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, set for release March 4. The report lands as the heating season nears its final weeks, offering a new snapshot of distillate inventories.
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