LONDON, July 31, 2026, 12:04 BST
- Market update: Brent and WTI futures traded during European hours.
- As of 0952 GMT, Brent was at $89.50 and WTI stood at $83.63.
- Initial estimate shows Brent’s premium over WTI expanded by roughly 60% in July.
Oil prices held steady on Friday, while the focus was on the gap between major benchmarks. Brent traded at a premium of roughly $5.87 a barrel over WTI.
Based on the reported rounded monthly increases, the spread was about $3.67 at the beginning of July. The preliminary estimate indicated an implied increase of approximately 60%.
The shift highlights increased value being placed on maritime supply and the safety of shipping routes. Brent remains the primary global benchmark for seaborne crude, while WTI sets pricing domestically in the U.S. The price difference is especially relevant for refiners who rely on imported shipments.
| Metric | July 31, 0952 GMT | Implied July start | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | $89.50 | $73.36 | +22% |
| WTI crude | $83.63 | $69.69 | +20% |
| Brent-WTI premium | $5.87 | $3.67 | Roughly +60% |
Initial estimates are based on rounded returns for the month so far.
Market activity on Friday was steadier, reflected by current flows. Two very large crude carriers, each holding approximately two million barrels, passed through Hormuz. Four commodity ships made their way out, compared with three the previous day.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia ASX:CBA puts current traffic at 30% to 35% of levels seen before the conflict. This improvement may help limit further price increases, but it does not bring capacity back to typical levels.
Ole Hvalbye, an analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (STO:SEB-A), said, “The market has stopped trading the war and started trading the shipping data.” Reuters
Tankers have already diverted more crude oil to Egypt, with SUMED shipments increasing to 28.79 million barrels in July, up from 19.52 million in April. The share of Yanbu loadings sent south fell to 43%, compared with 81% in June.
| Shipping indicator | Latest | Comparator | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz commodity vessels | 4 on Friday | 3 on Thursday | +1; traffic remains light |
| SUMED crude loadings | 28.79 million barrels | 19.52 million in April | +47.5% |
| Yanbu loadings heading south | 43% | 81% in June | -38 percentage points |
| Sidi Kerir weekly lift rate | 1.4 million bpd | 2.5 million-bpd capacity | 56% of capacity used |
The Suez route is slower and less efficient operationally. Using it for Northeast Asia shipments increases transit times by over double, with arrivals potentially pushed back by around a month. Fully loaded VLCCs are required to transfer part of their cargo to SUMED.
During the first half of 2025, 20.9 million barrels per day moved through Hormuz, accounting for nearly 20% of worldwide petroleum-liquids use. Suez and SUMED are unable to handle volumes of this magnitude. As much as five million barrels per day in alternate supply routes could be threatened if an attack occurred near the canal.
Kpler analyst Matthew Wright stated, “Disruption to the Suez Canal would have an almost immediate impact on prices.” Reuters
Risk repriced rapidly on Wednesday. Brent surged 7.91% and WTI advanced 6.56%. U.S. equities declined following President Donald Trump’s pledge for additional strikes on Iran.
| Asset | Wednesday move | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | +7.91% | Closed at $90.74 |
| WTI crude | +6.56% | Closed at $84.46 |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | -2.1% | Dropped 1,153 points |
| S&P 500 | -1.5% | Broad sell-off seen |
| Nasdaq Composite | -1.7% | Tech stocks lost ground |
Physical stocks have also become more limited. U.S. crude stocks dropped by 7.2 million barrels, reaching 404.5 million, marking their lowest point since 2018. Analysts projected a decrease of just 1.3 million barrels.
Consumers are experiencing the impact. The average price of U.S. gasoline reached $4.09 per gallon, reflecting a 37% increase since the onset of the war. China plans to raise gasoline and diesel price ceilings by 14% and 15%, respectively, compared to the final adjustment before the conflict.
On the downside, demand destruction and a later rebound in supply could offset gains. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that daily consumption will decrease by 1.2 million barrels in 2026. Inventories are expected to decline by 2.2 million barrels per day in the third quarter, then recover during the fourth quarter.
Brent trades at $89.50, roughly 21% higher than the EIA’s $74 forecast for the third quarter. This difference reflects a notable disruption premium that could narrow rapidly if shipping returns to normal.
Risks are present in both directions. Continued flow through Hormuz or a truce could significantly narrow the spread. A strike close to Suez might push Brent back to $100. The spread projection is still tentative, as monthly increases were approximated.
Short-term traders are focused on Oman-Iran negotiations and monitor daily ship movements. The upcoming U.S. petroleum stockpiles report is set for August 5.
