C3.ai, Inc. (NYSE: AI) is back in the headlines today as the enterprise AI software company prepares to report fiscal Q2 2026 earnings after the closing bell. The stock has been crushed in 2025, is flirting with “special situation” territory, and yet sits at the center of some of the biggest themes in tech: generative AI, cloud partnerships, and a possible company sale. [1]
Below is a structured look at where C3.ai stands right now—its latest stock performance, Wall Street forecasts, technical picture, the new CEO, Microsoft partnership expansion, and what tonight’s earnings could mean next.
Where C3.ai Stock Trades Today
As of early afternoon on December 3, 2025, C3.ai shares are changing hands at about $15 (around $14.9 intraday), up roughly 4% on the day and extending a modest two‑day rebound. [2]
Recent trading stats:
- Price range today: roughly $14.2–$14.9. [3]
- 52‑week range: $12.59 low to $45.08 high — the stock is trading around two‑thirds below its 12‑month peak. [4]
- Market cap: about $2.0 billion. [5]
- Volatility: 52‑week price change of about ‑60%, with a five‑year beta near 2.0, meaning the stock has been roughly twice as volatile as the broad market. [6]
Year to date, C3.ai is down close to 58–61%, even as many AI‑linked peers rallied. [7]
For context, the S&P 500 is up solidly in 2025, and Palantir—C3.ai’s most frequently cited comparable—has more than doubled over the past year. [8]
Tonight’s Earnings: Why December 3, 2025 Matters
C3.ai will report fiscal Q2 2026 results after the market close on December 3. Management previously guided for: [9]
- Revenue: $72–$80 million
- Non‑GAAP operating loss: $49.5–$57.5 million
Wall Street expectations are tightly bunched around that guidance:
- Consensus revenue: about $75–75.1 million, implying a ~20% year‑over‑year decline. [10]
- Consensus EPS (adjusted): loss of $0.32–$0.33 per share, significantly worse than the roughly $0.06 loss in the same quarter last year. [11]
Options markets are braced for fireworks: implied volatility suggests traders expect roughly a ±12% move in the share price following the report—well above the average ~7% post‑earnings move of the last three quarters. [12]
Put simply: the market is pricing in big news, but not necessarily a positive surprise.
How C3.ai Got Here: A Brutal Q1 and a Broken Growth Story
The current tension around C3.ai stems from a sharp break in its growth trajectory in fiscal Q1 2026 (quarter ended July 2025):
- Revenue: $70.3 million, down 19% year‑over‑year and dramatically below the company’s earlier guidance range of $100–109 million. [13]
- GAAP net loss: about $116.8 million, versus a loss of $62.8 million a year earlier.
- GAAP EPS:‑$0.86 per share. [14]
Those preliminary numbers, released in August, triggered:
- A single‑day stock plunge of more than 25–30% as investors digested the shortfall. [15]
- Multiple analyst downgrades, including:
- D.A. Davidson cutting the stock to Underperform and slashing its price target to $13, calling the quarter “catastrophic.” [16]
- Wedbush maintaining Outperform but cutting its target from $35 to $23, describing the sales miss as “brutal” and warning it will take time to rebuild confidence. [17]
- Wolfe Research reiterating Underperform with a $15 target. [18]
Management has blamed the collapse on:
- A disruptive global sales and services reorganization
- Leadership turmoil and CEO health issues
- A shift in how the company sells and deploys its software [19]
Critically, the company withdrew its full‑year fiscal 2026 guidance and said it would not update the outlook until Q2 results—tonight. [20]
That guidance withdrawal was a huge red flag for growth investors who had been paying a premium multiple for a clean AI growth story.
New CEO and Strategic Review: From Siebel to Ehikian
C3.ai was long synonymous with its founder, Thomas Siebel, a legendary enterprise software salesman. That changed in 2025:
- In September 2025, C3.ai appointed Stephen Ehikian—a former GSA acting administrator and ex‑Salesforce AI product executive—as CEO, effective September 1. Siebel moved to the role of Executive Chairman. [21]
- Siebel’s transition followed an autoimmune diagnosis and multiple hospitalizations, which he himself cited as factors behind the company’s execution slip. [22]
Shortly after, Reuters reported that C3.ai is exploring a potential sale or other strategic options, including possible private investment. The report emphasized that talks are in early stages and may not result in a transaction, but it was enough to spark an after‑hours rally and fuel “value buyer” interest. [23]
Additional commentary from market outlets has framed the strategic review as:
- A potential valuation floor, since any acquirer would likely have to pay a premium to the current ~$2B market cap
- A sign that the board is aware of the widening gap between C3.ai’s technology ambitions and its financial execution [24]
For now, no formal sale process has been confirmed by the company.
Still a Real Business: What C3.ai Actually Does
Despite the drama, C3.ai is not a pre‑revenue science project. In fiscal 2025, the company generated roughly $389 million in revenue, up about 25% year‑over‑year, though it still posted a sizable net loss of about $289 million. [25]
The company positions itself as an enterprise AI application software vendor:
- C3 Agentic AI Platform: a development and runtime environment for building AI apps at scale
- Vertical AI suites for asset performance, supply chain, sustainability, defense & intelligence, healthcare, financial services, and government workloads
- Generative AI tools to unify data from complex systems and expose it via natural language interfaces [26]
Its ecosystem is heavily partnership‑driven, with deep ties to Microsoft Azure, AWS, Google Cloud, McKinsey, Baker Hughes, and others. [27]
Microsoft Cloud and Copilot: A Key Catalyst
The most tangible recent positive for the C3.ai narrative is its deeper integration with Microsoft’s AI stack.
On November 20, 2025, C3.ai announced expanded native integrations across Microsoft Copilot, Microsoft Fabric, and Azure AI Foundry. In practice, that means: [28]
- Enterprises running on Microsoft can now treat C3 AI as an “intelligence layer” that sits on top of Fabric and Azure data lakes.
- C3’s domain‑specific applications and agents can be accessed directly from Microsoft Copilot through a single conversational interface; users can ask questions, call C3 AI apps, and trigger workflows without leaving the Microsoft environment.
- Through Azure AI Foundry, C3’s agentic platform can deploy and fine‑tune foundation models using Microsoft’s model catalog, simplifying production deployments.
Analysts and independent platforms like Simply Wall St have argued that this makes C3.ai’s story more interesting again: Microsoft gives C3 distribution and credibility, while C3 supplies hardened vertical use cases that Microsoft doesn’t want to build one by one. [29]
However, even bullish takes also stress a caveat: integration news doesn’t fix revenue volatility or losses overnight. The Q2 numbers and forward guidance will be the first test of whether these partnerships are starting to translate into more predictable growth.
Wall Street’s View: Between “Hold” and “Moderate Sell”
The Street is split on C3.ai, but not in a particularly bullish way.
Consensus ratings & price targets
- Across around 13–15 analysts, the average rating is roughly a “Hold”, with a 12‑month average price target near $24.6, implying about 70% upside from current levels. Targets range from $10 on the low end to $55 on the high end. [30]
- TipRanks, which aggregates a smaller subset of analysts, labels the stock a “Moderate Sell” based on 1 Buy, 6 Holds, and 5 Sells, with an average target around $14.8—only a few percent above where the stock trades today. [31]
A few notable themes across recent research:
- Revenue reset: Some outlets note that analysts now forecast revenue to shrink from ~$389M in fiscal 2025 to around $299M in fiscal 2026, before recovering toward ~$370M by fiscal 2028. [32]
- Persistent losses: Street models generally assume C3.ai will remain unprofitable for years, with cumulative free‑cash outflows of roughly $270 million expected between fiscal 2026 and 2028. [33]
- Relative underperformance: Zacks highlights that while Palantir and SoundHound AI have delivered triple‑digit and strong double‑digit gains, respectively, C3.ai’s stock has fallen over 60% in the same period. [34]
Valuation-wise, C3.ai trades at roughly 5× trailing sales, down sharply from the double‑digit price‑to‑sales multiples seen during the 2021 AI mania, but still not “deep value” given shrinking revenue and big losses. [35]
Algorithmic & Retail Models: From Strong Sell to Long‑Term Upside
Alongside traditional Wall Street analysts, a growing number of algorithmic and retail‑oriented platforms are weighing in:
- Intellectia.ai classifies C3.ai as a “Strong Sell candidate” in the short term, citing multiple bearish technical signals and a still‑negative moving‑average setup, even as some short‑term momentum indicators turn up. [36]
- The same model, however, forecasts a wide 2026 trading band between about $18.6 and $38.7, with an average 2026 price around $32.9, and projects an average price near $52.9 by 2030. These are highly speculative algorithmic forecasts, but they underscore how leveraged C3.ai is to sentiment swings. [37]
- Simply Wall St’s fundamentals‑driven model pegs C3.ai’s “fair value” around $14.7, only slightly above the current price, based on long‑term forecasts of about $613.6 million in revenue and $80.3 million in earnings by 2028—which would require mid‑teens annual revenue growth and a swing of nearly $370 million from today’s losses. [38]
In other words, quantitative models largely agree on two things:
- Near‑term trend: weak and risky.
- Long‑term payoff: huge if the company actually hits ambitious growth and profitability targets—far from guaranteed.
The Bear Case: “Don’t Buy Until Free Cash Flow Flips”
A widely‑shared column from The Motley Fool on December 3 lays out the skeptical view bluntly: “Don’t buy C3.ai stock until this one thing happens.” That “one thing” is consistent positive free cash flow. [39]
Key points from that analysis:
- Over the last four quarters, C3.ai has burned roughly $86 million in free cash flow, and its net loss of about $342 million is nearly as large as its ~$372 million in revenue over that span. [40]
- The stock has fallen ~92% from its all‑time high, leaving it a $2 billion small‑cap in a space dominated by much larger, more profitable players. [41]
- The company has repeatedly changed strategy (subscription to consumption pricing, sales restructurings, leadership changes) and is now reportedly considering a sale or new capital—signals of an unsettled business model. [42]
The conclusion of that camp: C3.ai looks more like a “falling knife” than a contrarian opportunity until investors see several quarters of growing positive free cash flow under the new CEO.
The Bull Case: Partnerships, Defense, and Optionality
On the other side are investors and commentators who see C3.ai as a high‑risk, high‑reward turnaround story rather than a busted one.
Arguments they lean on:
- Deep enterprise partnerships. Roughly 90% of C3.ai’s recent business has been channeled through partners such as Microsoft Azure, AWS, Google Cloud, and McKinsey—suggesting that, if execution improves, the company could scale faster than its size would otherwise allow. [43]
- Vertical traction. Recent commentary highlights deployments with the U.S. Army (contested logistics), Nucor, Qemetica, and Baker Hughes, among others. These are large, sticky customers that tend to sign multi‑year deals if the software works. [44]
- Balance sheet buffer. Even after recent losses, C3.ai still has an estimated $700+ million of cash and marketable securities, giving it time to course‑correct without immediate financing pressure. [45]
- Sale optionality. If the company can’t unlock value as a standalone entity, a strategic buyer interested in its defense, industrial, or government AI footprint might see value at a premium to the current market cap. [46]
Some Seeking Alpha and MarketBeat contributors warn that aggressively shorting the stock at these levels could be risky: with high volatility, concentrated short interest, and potential M&A headlines in play, the setup is prone to violent squeezes if news turns even modestly positive. [47]
Technical Picture: Downtrend, But With “Event‑Driven” Potential
From a pure technical standpoint:
- C3.ai is down roughly 60% over the last 12 months and nearly 57% in 2025 alone, even after a big AI rally in 2023–2024. [48]
- The stock trades below its 50‑day (≈$16.6) and 200‑day (≈$20.9) moving averages, indicating a longer‑term downtrend. [49]
- Intellectia’s technical dashboard notes 3 bullish and 4 bearish signals, with moving averages skewing bearish but short‑term momentum indicators turning higher, leading to a near‑term “Neutral‑to‑Negative” technical bias. [50]
Options data and implied moves around earnings suggest traders view AI as an event‑driven trading vehicle more than a steady compounder—for now.
What to Watch in Tonight’s C3.ai Earnings Call
For investors and traders following C3.ai stock on December 3, 2025, these will likely be the critical checkpoints:
- Revenue and Guidance Re‑Anchoring
- Does Q2 revenue land near the $72–$80M guided range, and do management’s comments suggest the Q1 collapse was a one‑off or a new normal? [51]
- Does the company reinstate full‑year guidance or at least provide a credible path for the second half of fiscal 2026?
- Bookings, Pipeline and Churn
- Are deal cycles stabilizing after the sales reorganization?
- Any commentary on churn, particularly among cloud and industrial clients?
- Microsoft and Partner Revenue Contribution
- Concrete numbers or growth rates tied to the Microsoft Copilot / Fabric / Azure AI Foundry integrations will be watched closely as a validation (or not) of the bull narrative. [52]
- Strategic Alternatives and M&A
- Management will almost certainly be asked about the Reuters sale report and whether a formal process is underway. Even a non‑answer may move the stock. [53]
- Cash Burn and Free Cash Flow Path
- Bears want evidence that losses and free‑cash‑flow burn are shrinking; bulls want a visible roadmap to sustained positive FCF, the threshold many commentators say must be reached before the stock belongs in long‑term portfolios. [54]
- Culture and Execution Under Stephen Ehikian
- Any detail on changes to go‑to‑market, public‑sector focus, or internal KPIs will help investors judge whether the new CEO can translate government and Salesforce experience into commercial execution. [55]
Bottom Line: A High‑Beta Bet on Enterprise AI Execution
As of December 3, 2025, C3.ai stock sits at the crossroads of:
- A broken growth narrative (shrinking revenue, heavy losses, and guidance withdrawal)
- Powerful structural tailwinds (enterprise AI, Microsoft partnerships, defense and industrial use cases)
- Corporate drama (new CEO, leadership health issues, and a possible sale)
The consensus from traditional analysts is cautious—tilting toward Hold / Moderate Sell—while quant and retail models see large long‑term upside if the company can stabilize and eventually monetize its technology at scale. [56]
For now, C3.ai remains a high‑risk, high‑volatility AI stock where tonight’s earnings—and management’s guidance and tone—could reset the narrative in either direction.
References
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