Canada Stock Market Preview for December 1, 2025: TSX Records, 2.6% GDP Surprise and OPEC+ Shape the Open

The Canadian stock market heads into Monday, December 1, 2025, with the S&P/TSX Composite sitting at fresh record highs, the economy surprising to the upside, and a packed week of economic data and bank earnings just ahead. At the same time, global markets are still digesting a multi‑hour CME futures outage, a critical OPEC+ meeting, and growing odds of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in mid‑December. ^[1]

Here’s what traders and long‑term investors should know before the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) opening bell on Monday.

Key things to know before the TSX opens on December 1, 2025

TSX at a record: The S&P/TSX Composite closed Friday at 31,382.78, a new all‑time high, capping a 3.7% gain for November and its seventh straight monthly advance, led by materials and energy stocks. ^[2]
Q3 GDP shocker: Canada’s economy grew at an annualized 2.6% in Q3, far above the 0.5% forecast, driven by crude exports and government spending, even as business investment and household consumption stayed weak. ^[3]
Loonie tailwind: The Canadian dollar logged its biggest weekly gain since May after the GDP beat, strengthening to around 1.398 per U.S. dollar, as traders dialed back expectations for further Bank of Canada rate cuts. ^[4]
Oil & OPEC+: Crude is holding above the high‑$50s as OPEC+ is widely expected to keep production levels steady for early 2026, even as analysts warn of a looming supply glut. ^[5]
Metals boom: Copper on the LME hit an all‑time high above $11,200 per tonne, while silver has surged to record territory—powerful tailwinds for TSX materials names. ^[6]
Data on deck Monday: Statistics Canada is set to release energy statistics, oil & gas capital spending, airport traffic figures and health‑workforce vacancy data on the morning of December 1, all of which matter for energy, infrastructure, airlines and healthcare stocks. ^[7]
Bank earnings week: Starting Tuesday, virtually all of Canada’s Big Six banks plus several TSX heavyweights report Q4 numbers, turning the first week of December into a market‑moving “mini macro‑report card” for Canada. ^[8]
Fed and BoC in the background: Markets now put roughly 80%+ odds on a 25 bps Fed cut on December 9–10, while strong Canadian GDP has reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada will not cut at its December 10 meeting, keeping the policy rate at 2.25% for now. ^[9]

1. TSX enters December from a position of strength

Friday’s close saw the S&P/TSX Composite Index jump 0.6% to 31,382.78, setting another record and pushing its year‑to‑date gain to nearly 24%, putting 2025 on track to be its strongest year since 2009. ^[10]

Key drivers into Monday:

Seven straight monthly gains: November’s 3.7% rise marked the seventh consecutive positive month for the index, a streak not seen since 2021. ^[11]
Sector leadership:
- Materials rallied over 2% Friday, powered by gold (+1.8%) and record‑setting silver prices, with names like Endeavour Silver and Aya Gold & Silver surging double‑digits in a single session. ^[12]
- Energy also outperformed, rising roughly 1.1%, even as oil settled slightly lower around $58.55 a barrel, highlighting how investors are positioning for a 2026 resource super‑cycle. ^[13]
Forward outlook: A Reuters poll of strategists calls for the TSX to climb another ~5% to around 32,125 by end‑2026, supported by lower rates, easing trade uncertainty and a resource push linked to AI‑driven demand for energy and critical minerals. ^[14]

For Monday’s open, that backdrop means sentiment is bullish but increasingly stretched, with several analysts warning that a bout of consolidation or a pullback in the coming months is “likely or very likely” given lofty valuations and heavy gains already booked this year. ^[15]

2. What changed on November 29, 2025? The weekend news that matters

The user‑requested date—Saturday, November 29, 2025—wasn’t a trading day in Canada, but plenty of news broke that will colour Monday’s open. The most important for TSX investors:

2.1 GDP beat continues to echo through markets

While the GDP data dropped Friday, most follow‑up coverage and analysis hit the wires on November 29, reinforcing the message that Canada’s economy is stronger than expected—but still fragile under the hood. ^[16]

Key points from those analyses:

Q3 annualized GDP growth of 2.6% far surpassed the 0.5% consensus and followed a revised 1.8% contractionin Q2, helping Canada avoid a technical recession. ^[17]
The upside surprise was driven by trade and government spending:
- Exports—especially crude oil—rose, while imports logged their largest drop since 2022. ^[18]
- Government capital spending surged, including an 82% jump in weapons‑systems outlays, as Ottawa ramps up defence and infrastructure investment. ^[19]
Domestic demand is still soft: business capital investment was flat and household consumption underwhelmed, prompting many economists to call the report “very noisy” rather than unambiguously strong. ^[20]

For markets, the upshot is clear: growth is good enough to reduce near‑term recession risk but not so strong that it kills rate‑cut hopes outright—a sweet spot for equities at record highs.

2.2 CME outage and the “plumbing” of global markets

On November 29, Reuters detailed how global futures reopened after CME Group suffered one of its longest trading outages in years. A cooling failure at a Chicago‑area data centre halted trading in major futures contracts—including WTI crude, U.S. equity futures and some FX pairs—for more than 11 hours on Friday. ^[21]

Why this matters for TSX:

The outage temporarily knocked out key reference prices used by risk managers, hedgers and algorithmic strategies worldwide.
While volumes were already thin due to U.S. Thanksgiving and the shortened Friday session (limiting immediate damage), the event is a reminder of systemic vulnerability in market infrastructure just as investors are heavily leveraged into rate‑sensitive trades and commodity exposures. ^[22]

If volatility spikes in global futures when full trading resumes Sunday night and Monday, it could bleed into Canadian equities at the open—even without any domestic catalyst.

2.3 OPEC+, oil and the commodity complex

Heading into Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, multiple outlets reported that the producer group is poised to maintain its pause on unwinding production cuts into early 2026, effectively keeping significant supply off the market despite rising concerns about an oversupplied year ahead. ^[23]

That stance has helped keep WTI above $59, even as inventories stay elevated and demand signals from China remain mixed. ^[24]
For Canada, which is a major crude exporter, stable‑to‑firmer oil prices help support:
- TSX energy names, from integrated majors to mid‑cap producers.
- The loonie, which tends to track oil as a key export.

At the same time, copper’s record break above $11,200 per tonne, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Chilean output plus planned Chinese smelter cuts, feeds directly into the TSX’s base‑metals heavyweights. ^[25]

Add in surging silver prices and robust gold, and you get a near‑perfect backdrop for the TSX materials complex—one reason the index keeps punching out new highs. ^[26]

3. Macro backdrop: Bank of Canada vs U.S. Federal Reserve

3.1 Bank of Canada – strong GDP buys time

The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its policy rate to 2.25% in October, its lowest level in more than three years, as part of a gradual easing campaign aimed at cushioning the economy from trade‑war fallout and slowing global growth. ^[27]

The Q3 GDP surprise has now shifted expectations:

Economists and traders widely believe the BoC will hold rates steady at its next decision on December 10, rather than delivering another cut. ^[28]
Money‑market pricing implies a terminal rate for this easing cycle near 2.15% by July 2026, only slightly below today’s level, suggesting the BoC is close to done. ^[29]

For equity investors, that mix—lower rates than a year ago but no immediate move to zero—is generally supportive of:

Banks and insurers (steep enough curves to preserve margins).
Real‑asset plays like pipelines, utilities and REITs, which benefit from lower discount rates but don’t face the ultra‑low‑yield distortions seen earlier in the decade.

3.2 U.S. Federal Reserve – December cut increasingly likely

On the global side, markets are laser‑focused on the Federal Reserve’s December 9–10 meeting:

New York Fed President John Williams said on November 21 that policy is only “modestly restrictive” and that there is room for a near‑term cut to move rates closer to neutral—comments that sharply boosted rate‑cut odds. ^[30]
The Economic Times, citing CME FedWatch data, now pegs the probability of a 25 bps cut to a 3.50–3.75% range in December at about 83%, up from around 30% just a week earlier. ^[31]

If the Fed confirms that shift, it would:

Support global equities and high‑beta Canadian sectors like tech and growth‑oriented industrials.
Reinforce U.S. dollar weakness, giving the loonie more room to strengthen—something TSX investors should watch, as an overly strong Canadian dollar can eat into exporters’ earnings.

4. Monday’s Canadian data calendar: what’s coming at 8:30 a.m. ET

According to the official Statistics Canada release schedule, December 1–12 is busy, and several relevant releases are due Monday morning before markets open. ^[32]

Expected on Monday, December 1, 2025:

Energy statistics
- Provides detailed data on production, consumption and exports for key energy products.
- Market impact:
  - Can influence sentiment around integrated producers, midstream names and power utilities.
  - Offers fresh context for the boom‑and‑bust narrative in oil and gas after OPEC+’s weekend meeting.
Quarterly capital spending in oil and gas
- A window into capex plans in Canada’s energy patch.
- If producers show sustained or rising capex, it supports the narrative that companies believe prices and demand will stay robust into 2026. That’s good news for oilfield services, engineering firms and pipeline operators. ^[33]
Airport traffic and air passenger data
- Tracks passenger volumes and traffic through Canada’s major airports.
- Important for airlines, airports, travel‑exposed REITs and tourism‑linked names, especially as consumers juggle higher borrowing costs with pent‑up travel demand.
Canada’s health‑workforce vacancy trends (2024)
- Pairs neatly with a fresh report from the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI), which estimates health‑care spending will reach $399 billion in 2025, growing 4.2% versus expected GDP growth of 2.6%. ^[34]
- Persistent staff shortages and rising costs could pressure margins for hospital operators, LTC providers and some healthcare services firms, even as they benefit from rising spending.

All of these releases typically land around 8:30 a.m. ET, roughly one hour before the TSX’s regular session begins at 9:30 a.m. ET. Any surprise swings—especially in energy capex—could move relevant sectors right at the open.

5. Big‑bank earnings and valuations: the elephant in the TSX room

Financials remain the single largest sector in the S&P/TSX Composite, accounting for roughly one‑third of index market cap. ^[35]

The first week of December is jam‑packed:

Tuesday, December 2:
- Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) kicks off with Q4 results before the open.
Wednesday, December 3:
- National Bank of Canada (NA) and Royal Bank of Canada (RY) report pre‑market.
- EQB Inc. and Descartes Systems Group follow after the close.
Thursday, December 4:
- Bank of Montreal (BMO), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) and Toronto‑Dominion Bank (TD) all release results before the bell.
- BRP is scheduled to report during trading hours.
Friday, December 5:
- Laurentian Bank wraps up with pre‑market earnings. ^[36]

Why Monday’s trading will already be influenced by this:

A Canadian Press piece notes that the big banks are heading into this earnings stretch “priced for perfection,”trading around 13× forward earnings versus a 20‑year average near 10.5×, with some analysts downgrading leaders like RBC and TD ahead of the releases. ^[37]
Bank stocks have outperformed the wider market by about six percentage points this year, with TD up roughly 50% year‑to‑date, leaving limited room for disappointment. ^[38]

For Monday:

Investors may start positioning ahead of Tuesday’s Scotiabank numbers, rotating within the bank group or hedging with options.
Any new macro commentary from bank research desks over the weekend—especially around mortgage growth, credit losses and trade‑war impacts—could show up in Monday’s tape even before any company has reported.

6. Sector‑by‑sector: what to watch at the open

6.1 Energy

Drivers:

OPEC+ expected to hold output policy steady, keeping cuts in place into Q1 2026. ^[39]
WTI holding above $59, supported by rate‑cut hopes and supply‑glut management. ^[40]
Monday’s StatsCan energy and capex data offer a domestic reality check on how Canadian producers are responding.

Implications:

Integrated majors and large‑caps could benefit from price stability plus signals of capex discipline.
Oilfield services and infrastructure names may react more to capex numbers than to spot oil prices.

6.2 Materials (gold, silver, base metals)

Drivers:

Gold up ~1.8% on Friday, silver at records, and LME three‑month copper pushing to an all‑time high above $11,210.50 per tonne. ^[41]

Implications:

Precious‑metal miners have strong momentum heading into Monday; profit‑taking is possible but the macro backdrop (rate‑cut hopes + geopolitical jitters) is still supportive.
Base‑metal producers and diversified miners stand to gain from stronger copper and industrial‑metal prices, particularly with AI‑related infrastructure and electrification demand in focus. ^[42]

6.3 Financials

Drivers:

Record‑high TSX, banks trading at lofty valuations, and a dense earnings calendar starting Tuesday. ^[43]
Macro tailwinds include rate‑cut expectations that stop short of zero and a stronger domestic GDP print, but headwinds remain from trade tensions and a muddied 2026 outlook. ^[44]

Implications:

Monday could feature selective de‑risking in the bank group as investors rebalance ahead of results.
Watch for flows into insurance, asset managers and fintech names as possible relative‑value trades within financials.

6.4 Healthcare and defensive sectors

Drivers:

CIHI’s report that health spending is set to reach $399 billion in 2025, growing faster than the overall economy. ^[45]
Monday’s health‑workforce vacancy release from StatsCan could underline staffing and cost pressures.

Implications:

Healthcare‑related REITs, service providers and insurers may see mixed sentiment: revenue visibility is high, but so are cost and policy risks.
Broader defensives (utilities, staples) may continue to benefit from investors hedging against a potential 2026 growth slowdown even as 2025 data improves.

7. Risks and opportunities to keep in mind

Before the Canada stock market opens on Monday, December 1, 2025, it’s worth keeping these cross‑currents on your radar:

Valuations are rich: With the TSX up nearly 24% year‑to‑date and banks trading above long‑term multiples, even small disappointments in data or earnings can trigger outsized moves. ^[46]
Data is “noisy”: Q3 GDP looks impressive, but much of the strength comes from trade and government spending, while domestic demand remains soft and flash estimates point to a 0.3% decline in October GDP. ^[47]
Policy divergence: A BoC that is nearing the end of its easing cycle versus a Fed that is still actively debating near‑term cuts could keep FX and rate markets volatile, with knock‑on effects for rate‑sensitive TSX names. ^[48]
Infrastructure fragility: The CME outage shows that even in calm macro conditions, market‑plumbing failures can quickly ripple across asset classes, something to remember as positioning becomes more crowded. ^[49]

As always, none of this is a recommendation to buy or sell specific securities. It’s a snapshot of the macro, sector and event landscape that will shape how Canada’s stock market trades when the opening bell rings on December 1, 2025.