Canada Stock Market Today: What to Know Before the TSX Opens on December 5, 2025

As Toronto traders get ready for the opening bell on Friday, December 5, 2025, Canada’s stock market is sitting at fresh record highs, but the mood heading into the session is more watchful than euphoric. Here’s a concise, news-ready look at everything you need to know before the S&P/TSX Composite starts trading today.

1. TSX Futures Flat After Thursday’s Record Close

Canada’s main index closed at a new all‑time high on Thursday, finishing around 31,478 points, up about 1% on the day. The move extended a strong run for the S&P/TSX Composite, which has been one of the better‑performing major indices in 2025, helped by big gains in financials, materials and energy. ^[1]

Early this morning, futures on the S&P/TSX Composite were essentially flat as of about 06:42 a.m. Eastern time, according to Reuters, suggesting a calm but cautious open after that record close. ^[2]

The rally has been underpinned by:

Stronger‑than‑expected earnings from all six major Canadian banks, which pushed several names to record highs this week. ^[3]
High precious‑metals prices and firm energy markets, which play to the TSX’s heavy weight in miners and oil & gas. ^[4]

RBC Wealth Management notes that the index is trading at roughly 15.9 times earnings, a modest premium to its long‑term average but still at a discount to the S&P 500’s valuation, reflecting optimism about 2026 but also leaving less room for disappointment on growth or profits. ^[5]

2. Jobs Shock: November Labour Force Survey Comes in Hot

The single biggest new data point for markets this morning is Canada’s November Labour Force Survey, released by Statistics Canada.

Key highlights: ^[6]

Employment rose by 54,000 (+0.3%), the third straight monthly gain, rather than the small loss of 5,000 jobs economists had expected. ^[7]
Unemployment fell to 6.5%, down 0.4 percentage points from October and the lowest level in 16 months.
Job gains were heavily concentrated in part‑time work and among youth (15–24), with strong hiring in health care and social assistance, accommodation and food services, and natural resources. Wholesale and retail trade saw job losses. ^[8]
Average hourly wages for employees are up about 3.6% year‑over‑year, still solid by historical standards and important for the Bank of Canada’s inflation calculus. ^[9]

Why it matters for the TSX:

Stronger employment supports credit quality and loan growth for the big banks that dominate the index.
However, the combination of a tighter labour market and still‑firm wage gains makes it harder for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to justify further near‑term rate cuts.
Markets had been braced for softer data; instead, the labour market looks more resilient than feared, even as other indicators (like the Ivey PMI) show pockets of weakness. ^[10]

Bottom line: the jobs report is a net positive for Canada’s economic story in the short term, but it could reduce the odds of additional monetary easing in early 2026, which matters for rate‑sensitive sectors like real estate, utilities and growth stocks.

3. Bank of Canada: All Eyes on December 10 Rate Decision

The BoC meets next Wednesday, and today’s data drop lands just days before policymakers go behind closed doors.

Where policy stands right now:

The overnight rate is 2.25%, at the bottom of the BoC’s estimated “neutral range” after a series of cuts from a peak of 5.0% in 2024. ^[11]
RBC economists point out that the BoC has already delivered about 275 basis points of easing since the rate peak, more than any other G7 central bank, and has signalled it may be done unless growth deteriorates again. ^[12]
A recent mortgage‑market analysis pegs market‑implied odds of a December 10 cut at roughly 8%, with a 92% probability of a hold at 2.25%, even before the upside surprise in today’s jobs data. ^[13]

Recent GDP numbers complicate the picture:

Real GDP grew 0.6% in Q3 (2.6% annualised), easily beating expectations of 0.5% annualised and reversing a sharp contraction in Q2. ^[14]
That rebound was driven largely by net exports and government capital spending, while household consumption and business investment were notably softer, leading several economists to describe the economy as “fragile” beneath the strong headline. ^[15]

At the same time, the Ivey PMI for November slipped below 50, signalling contracting business activity and a weaker employment component, even as input prices accelerated. ^[16]

Put together:

The macro mix is mixed: better jobs and GDP versus softer business surveys and uneven domestic demand.
Most strategists now expect the BoC to hold rates steady next week, keep a cautious tone on growth, and stress that further cuts will depend on how trade tensions and domestic demand evolve into 2026. ^[17]

For markets, a firm signal that the easing cycle is on pause could:

Support banks and insurers, which benefit from a steeper yield curve.
Put a bit of pressure on interest‑rate‑sensitive sectors like REITs and highly leveraged growth stories.

4. Global Backdrop: Fed Cut Hopes, Softer Dollar, Risk‑On Tone

The Canadian open today is happening against a global market backdrop that’s tilted mildly “risk‑on”:

Global equities are on track for a second straight week of gains as investors position for a widely expected 0.25‑point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve next week, according to Reuters. ^[18]
Fed‑funds futures put the probability of a December cut around the mid‑80s percentage range, with markets looking for potentially two more cuts in 2026. ^[19]
The U.S. core PCE inflation data, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, is due later today and could move yields, the U.S. dollar and commodities into the North American close. ^[20]
In Asia, most markets traded higher overnight, even as Japan’s Nikkei slipped on domestic growth and policy worries; U.S. stock futures were modestly positive heading into the European afternoon. ^[21]

For Canadian investors, the key pieces of this global puzzle are:

Weaker U.S. dollar – The greenback is hovering near a five‑week low as traders bet on Fed easing, which tends to support commodities and non‑U.S. risk assets. ^[22]
Lower long‑term yields – A Fed cut and softer inflation would ease global financial conditions, a positive for equities but a potential warning sign about future growth.
Synchronised central‑bank week – The BoC, RBA, SNB and then the ECB, BoE and BOJ follow over the next two weeks, meaning rate expectations can shift quickly. ^[23]

The TSX, with its tilt toward financials, energy and materials rather than mega‑cap U.S. tech, tends to benefit when global central banks pivot more clearly toward easing and commodities firm up, rather than when growth scares dominate.

5. Commodities Watch: Oil, Gold and Silver in the Spotlight

Oil: Steady but Supported

Oil is once again a central driver for Canadian equities this morning:

WTI crude is trading just under $60 a barrel and is on track for its second straight weekly gain, up roughly 1.5–1.6% so far this week. ^[24]
Brent crude is around the low‑$60s, fluctuating near $63, with prices described as “steady” today as stalled Ukraine peace talks and a still‑tight supply backdrop offset concerns about oversupply. ^[25]
OPEC+ has agreed to maintain current production levels, while tensions around Venezuela and disruptions to Kazakh exports have added a modest geopolitical premium. ^[26]

For the TSX:

Integrated producers and oil‑sands names are likely to see continued support if crude holds near these levels.
Pipeline and midstream companies benefit indirectly from steadier volumes and improved sentiment toward the sector.

Gold and Silver: Precious Metals Still Glitter

Gold and silver remain a big part of the Canadian story:

Gold prices are modestly higher today, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and the prospect of a Fed rate cut, with spot prices edging up while real yields ease. ^[27]
Over the past week, Canada’s market has repeatedly hit fresh records as gold and silver miners surged alongside record bullion prices, driving strong performance in the TSX materials sector. ^[28]

A recent Finimize note highlighted that: ^[29]

Gold’s rally has a clear macro driver: expectations for lower real rates into 2026.
Silver has been even more explosive, notching record prices and double‑digit percentage gains in some miners.
With financials and miners together accounting for a large share of the TSX, this combination of strong bank earnings and surging metals has been central to the index’s outperformance.

Investors watching the open will want to monitor gold majors and silver producers alongside oil names, as any intraday swings in bullion or crude can quickly ripple through the index.

6. Big Six Banks: Earnings Beat, Dividends Up, One Miss

Financials are the backbone of the Canadian market, and this week’s bank earnings blitz is a major reason the TSX is sitting at record highs.

What we know so far:

TD Bank, Bank of Montreal and CIBC all beat fourth‑quarter profit estimates, driven largely by stronger capital‑markets revenue as dealmaking and trading activity rebounded. ^[30]
Reuters reports that all six of Canada’s major banks – including Royal Bank of Canada, Scotiabank and National Bank – have now wrapped up fiscal 2025 with earnings above analyst expectations, despite a sluggish domestic economy and ongoing tariff uncertainty. ^[31]
Several banks have also announced dividend increases, with TD, BMO and CIBC raising payouts, signalling boardroom confidence in earnings durability and capital strength. ^[32]
Royal Bank of Canada shares hit a record high earlier this week after beating estimates, contributing to the broader financials rally. ^[33]

Not every lender is firing on all cylinders, though. Reuters notes that Laurentian Bank’s Q4 profit missed expectations, a reminder that smaller and more specialised institutions can still feel strain from a choppy economy and shifting funding costs. ^[34]

Sector implications heading into the open:

With financials making up about a third of the TSX, follow‑through in bank stocks today will be crucial in determining whether the index extends or consolidates its record run. ^[35]
Strong capital‑markets performance may reassure investors about fee income and trading revenue going into 2026, even if loan growth slows.
Credit quality and provisions remain key watch‑points; for now, analysts generally view banks’ buffers as adequate, but any change in guidance on loan losses would be market‑moving. ^[36]

7. The Loonie: Firm on Oil and Equities

The Canadian dollar is starting the day from a place of relative strength:

On Thursday, the loonie traded near a five‑week high around 71.7 U.S. cents, supported by higher oil prices and record domestic equity markets. ^[37]
Traders had been awaiting today’s employment numbers and next week’s BoC decision; the stronger‑than‑expected jobs report tilts risks toward a somewhat firmer currency, especially if oil holds its gains and the Fed confirms a modest easing path. ^[38]

A stronger Canadian dollar is a two‑edged sword for the TSX:

It can weigh on exporters and some resource producers whose sales are priced in U.S. dollars.
But it can also signal international confidence in Canada’s macro mix of solid exports, fiscal stimulus and a central bank that appears comfortable at the low end of its neutral rate range. ^[39]

8. Key Themes and Sectors to Watch at the Open

Without making specific trading recommendations, here are the main themes likely to drive attention on Bay Street this morning:

Financials (Banks and Insurers)
- Fresh off a week of earnings beats and dividend hikes, the big banks will be central to whether the TSX builds on record levels.
- Watch for any broker upgrades or changes in guidance as analysts digest the full run of results. ^[40]
Energy (Oil Producers and Pipelines)
- Oil’s second straight week of gains and ongoing geopolitical support should keep attention on integrated producers and midstream names. ^[41]
Materials (Gold and Silver Miners, Base Metals)
- With gold and silver still elevated and metals playing a growing role in data‑centre and infrastructure build‑outs, miners have been central to the TSX’s leadership. ^[42]
Rate‑Sensitive Sectors (REITs, Utilities, Telcos)
- A strong jobs report and resilient GDP lower the odds of near‑term BoC cuts, which could pressure sectors that benefited most from falling yields earlier in the year. ^[43]
Macro‑Exposed Cyclicals (Industrials, Consumer Discretionary)
- Mixed signals from the Ivey PMI and soft household spending data suggest that not all pockets of the economy are sharing in the upside. Company commentary on 2026 demand will be an important tell. ^[44]

9. What It All Means for Canada’s Stock Market Today

Heading into the Toronto open on Friday, December 5, 2025, the setup looks like this:

Bullish forces:
- A record‑high TSX, powered by strong bank earnings, high precious‑metals prices and steady oil. ^[45]
- A labour market that just surprised to the upside, easing fears of an imminent slowdown. ^[46]
- A global backdrop tilted toward easing, with the Fed widely expected to cut rates next week and the U.S. dollar softer. ^[47]
Caution flags:
- Under the surface, Canada’s economy still shows fragile domestic demand, with weak business investment, uneven household spending and a contracting November PMI. ^[48]
- The BoC is at or near the end of its easing runway, and stronger‑than‑expected data may keep rates on hold longer than markets had hoped. ^[49]
- Valuations are no longer cheap after a multi‑month rally; RBC notes that the TSX trades at a mild premium to its own history, which raises the bar for earnings and macro data in 2026. ^[50]

Putting this together, the most reasonable base case for the open is a muted to slightly positive start, with stock‑specific moves in the banks, miners and energy names doing most of the heavy lifting. Volatility could pick up into the U.S. PCE inflation release and as traders fine‑tune expectations for next week’s back‑to‑back Fed and BoC decisions.

As always, this overview is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as personalized investment advice. Market conditions can change quickly, so investors should check intraday data and, where appropriate, consult a qualified advisor before making trading decisions.