London, March 19, 2026, 09:00 GMT
Gold slipped to its lowest level in over a month on Thursday, pressured by a stronger dollar and signals from a hawkish Federal Reserve, further dulling its safe-haven draw. By 0649 GMT, spot gold had dropped 1.1% to $4,764.27 an ounce—marking a level last seen on Feb. 6. U.S. gold futures for April shed 2.6% to $4,770. “The metal is struggling in a high dollar and high oil environment,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. Silver, platinum, and palladium also registered declines. Reuters
Gold’s typical safe-haven status isn’t holding up this time. Since the conflict erupted late last month, investors have favored the dollar, sending the dollar index up 2.5%. Brent crude has surged as well, last trading at $111.87 a barrel, stoking those stagflation worries—sluggish growth paired with rising inflation.
The Fed turned up the heat Wednesday, holding its federal funds target steady at 3.5%-3.75%. Policymakers flagged persistent uncertainty clouding the economic horizon, citing unresolved tensions in the Middle East. Gold, which offers no yield, typically falls out of favor when higher rates appear here to stay.
Investors took the decision as a cue to pull back on hopes for swift rate cuts. The S&P 500 slid 1.4% after the news hit. The dollar index gained 0.6%, reaching 100.19, while the two-year Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points to 3.77%. All signals pointed to fading expectations for near-term easing.
Independent metals trader Tai Wong said Chair Jerome Powell has kept the Fed “on the sidelines” and didn’t give gold bulls much reason to expect rate cuts soon. That, he noted, leaves gold vulnerable: if bullion dips back below $5,000 an ounce, the technical picture could start to look shaky, though Wong stressed the broader bullish thesis isn’t dead. Reuters
Rate cut bets keep slipping farther out. Morgan Stanley on Thursday moved its call for the Federal Reserve’s next cut to September, having previously eyed June. That lines up with Goldman Sachs, which also pushed its timeline back. Jack Ablin of Cresset Capital flagged a “growing school of thought” expecting the Fed might not cut at all this year. Reuters
The reversal is making waves in related names too. European mining stocks slid 3% Thursday, tracking bullion’s dip—yet another indication that gold’s latest slide is shaking up the wider materials sector.
Still, the oil shock is the wild card here. Persistent gains in energy prices could push inflation higher, not just sap growth, and that spells trouble for gold—potentially a sharper drop ahead. One Fed official is now penciling in a rate hike next year, while the central bank’s median inflation forecast for year-end has been bumped up to 2.7%, from 2.4% in December.
