Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) heads into the December 11, 2025 U.S. market open after one of the most explosive runs in its history — and one of the most hotly debated. The online used‑car retailer has gone from bankruptcy fears in 2022 to S&P 500 inclusion and a market value that rivals Detroit’s biggest automakers. [1]
Below is a full rundown of what happened after the bell on Wednesday, December 10, and what traders and long‑term investors should watch before the opening bell on Thursday, December 11, 2025.
1. Carvana’s Price Action After the Bell on December 10, 2025
Regular session: another record close
On Wednesday, December 10, 2025, Carvana shares:
- Closed at: about $467.67, up 2.49% on the day
- Intraday range: roughly $454.11 – $474.31
- Opened: near $454.11
- Volume: about 4.95 million shares, above its recent average [2]
That session extended Carvana’s winning streak to 12 consecutive trading days, with the stock rising roughly 50–51% over that stretch and pushing deeper into all‑time‑high territory. [3]
Year‑to‑date, Carvana is now up well over 100% in 2025 (Barron’s puts the figure around 127%), trouncing the broader S&P 500’s mid‑teens gain. [4]
After-hours trading: rally pauses but doesn’t break
In extended trading on the evening of December 10:
- After‑hours quotes hovered just under $470, with prints reported around $468–469, essentially flat to slightly above the regular close. TechStock²
In other words, there was no violent reversal after the close. For a stock that just strung together 12 green days, “flat” after hours is itself a statement: buyers have not yet abandoned the move.
2. Why CVNA Is Surging: S&P 500 Inclusion and a “Resurrection” Story
From near‑bankruptcy to blue-chip index member
Carvana’s latest leg higher began when S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that CVNA will join the S&P 500 before the market opens on December 22, 2025. [5]
Key mechanics:
- Forced buying: Index funds and ETFs that track the S&P 500 will be required to buy Carvana shares. Estimates in recent coverage suggest around 16 million shares may need to be purchased around the rebalance, a major source of mechanical demand. [6]
- Short interest: At the same time, short interest is still in the high single‑digit to low double‑digit percentage of float, translating to roughly 11–14 million shares sold short and several days’ worth of average volume to cover. TechStock²+1
- Result: A classic setup for a short squeeze and momentum chase as passive funds, hedge funds and options market makers all scramble for shares.
Reuters notes that Carvana’s market value has now surpassed both Ford and General Motors, after a rally of more than 8,000% from the stock’s 2022 lows, when investors openly worried about default and bankruptcy. [7]
Other deep‑dive pieces describe the move as an “unprecedented comeback”, pointing out that the company’s market cap has climbed into the $80–100 billion range, depending on the day’s price, and that shares have risen more than 10,000% from the 2022 bottom. [8]
The “index effect” in action
Market commentary around December 10 focuses on the classic “index effect”:
- Index additions boost liquidity and visibility.
- They pull in institutional capital almost regardless of valuation.
- Traders often front‑run the inclusion, pushing the stock higher before passive funds complete their buying. [9]
For Carvana, this index catalyst lands on top of an already dramatic fundamental turnaround — which is why bulls and bears are both unusually loud.
3. Fundamentals Behind the Rally: Q3 2025 Was a Breakout
The rally is not only index mechanics. The company’s Q3 2025 results marked a genuine break from its loss‑making past.
Q3 2025 by the numbers
Recent reporting and data aggregators highlight roughly the following Q3 metrics: [10]
- Retail units sold: about 155,000–156,000, up roughly 44% year over year
- Revenue: around $5.65 billion, up about 55% YoY
- Net income: roughly $260+ million, swinging decisively into profit
- Adjusted EBITDA: about $637 million, a record for the company
- Gross margin: expanded from roughly 5% at the end of 2023 to around 20% in Q3 2025
- Net debt: reduced from a peak near $8 billion to roughly $3 billion, as part of aggressive balance‑sheet restructuring
Several analysts and institutional commentaries now describe Carvana as having moved from “emergency survival mode” to a scalable, profitable model, driven by:
- Cost cuts and logistics efficiencies
- Higher gross profit per vehicle
- Better financing economics and loan securitization margins
- Increased use of automation and data/AI across pricing, underwriting, and reconditioning [11]
Still, valuation has gone into the stratosphere
On standard valuation metrics, Carvana now trades at:
- Trailing P/E: around 100+
- Forward P/E: well above 50x, with some estimates in the 60–70x range
- Price‑to‑sales: in the mid‑single digits (around 3.5–5.5x, depending on source and timing) [12]
That is vastly richer than traditional auto retailers — and even more expensive than many fast‑growing tech names — which is why valuation risk is now front and centre in almost every piece of analysis.
4. Wall Street’s View: Bullish Ratings, Targets Now Behind the Price
Consensus remains positive, but the stock has outrun the models
Data compiled by QuiverQuant and other platforms show that over the past several months: [13]
- Around 14–19 analysts have published 12‑month targets on CVNA.
- Ratings skew heavily positive: many “Buy,” “Overweight” or “Outperform” ratings and virtually no outright “Sell”.
- The median 12‑month price target sits around $445 per share.
- Target range runs from roughly $390 to $500.
Recent high‑profile moves:
- BofA Securities: raised its target from $385 to $455, reiterating a Buy rating. [14]
- Evercore ISI: lifted its target from $395 to $420, but kept an In‑Line (i.e., neutral) rating. [15]
- UBS: initiated/maintained a Buy with a $450 target. [16]
- Needham: reiterated Buy with a $500 bull‑case target. [17]
- Citizens / RBC: targets in the $460 range with Outperform views. [18]
With the stock closing around $468 on December 10, Carvana is now trading above the median Street target and in some cases above newly raised ones. Several services note that CVNA has effectively overshot the average 12‑month valuation framework Wall Street is using today. [19]
5. The Bear Case: Overbought, Insider Selling and Fragile Finance
Not everyone is cheering.
Momentum and “could fall off a cliff” warnings
On December 10, a Benzinga screen of overbought consumer stocks highlighted Carvana as one of two names that “may fall off a cliff” this month, citing: [20]
- RSI (relative strength index): about 78.6, well above the typical 70 “overbought” threshold.
- One‑month gain: roughly 40–45%.
- 52‑week high: previously reported around $458.64, which the stock has now broken through.
The basic argument: price momentum is extreme, and any change in sentiment or macro conditions could trigger a sharp mean reversion.
Heavy insider selling into the rally
Skeptical coverage across multiple outlets has zeroed in on insider activity:
- A 24/7 Wall St analysis notes that in early December, executives including the CFO, President, and a director collectively sold over $30 million in stock at prices between roughly $370–400. [21]
- An Investing.com insider‑trading report shows President (Special Projects) Thomas Taira sold 30,952 shares on December 8 for about $13.5 million, at prices between $429 and $450, while exercising options at around $10 per share. [22]
- QuiverQuant’s insider dashboard tallies 2,399 insider sales and zero insider open‑market purchases over the last six months, with large disposals from CEO Ernest Garcia III, his father Ernest Garcia II, and other senior executives. [23]
For many retail traders, this is the uncomfortable question:
If the stock is heading meaningfully higher, why are insiders selling so aggressively into the ramp? That perception fuels social‑media claims that the S&P 500 inclusion is being used as a “liquidity event” for insiders and early backers. [24]
Concerns about “fragility” and loan‑driven profits
Bearish theses circulating through Finviz‑tracked research, Substack posts and earlier short‑seller work (including a high‑profile report from Hindenburg Research earlier in 2025) argue that: [25]
- A large share of Carvana’s reported profits comes from gains on selling auto loans, not core vehicle retailing.
- The model relies heavily on securitizing loans to subprime or riskier borrowers, leaving the company exposed if credit conditions deteriorate.
- Operating cash flow remains a concern, with critics pointing to ongoing capital‑market dependence and substantial remaining debt, even after deleveraging.
- Past accounting controversies and related‑party transactions involving the Garcia family remain a governance overhang.
These critics worry that Carvana has become a “fragility engine”: extremely sensitive to funding costs, credit losses, and capital‑market sentiment — all of which can change quickly if rates rise or the economy slows.
6. Macro Backdrop: Fed Cut, Lower Rates and a Risk-On Tape
Carvana’s surge on December 10 did not happen in isolation.
On the same day, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range down to 3.50%–3.75% in its third consecutive quarter‑point cut of 2025. [26]
Market reaction:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: + ~1.0%
- S&P 500: + ~0.7%, finishing just below record levels
- Nasdaq Composite: also closed higher, as investors embraced the idea of easier policy but digested a somewhat cautious 2026 outlook. [27]
Implications for Carvana:
- Lower rates support auto affordability via cheaper financing, a clear tailwind for used‑car demand and for Carvana’s own loan book.
- They may widen spreads on securitized auto loans, aiding Carvana’s financing margins.
- But Fed commentary about slowing the pace of cuts in 2026 introduces the risk of a future re‑pricing of high‑multiple, rate‑sensitive names if the yield curve backs up. [28]
Put simply: Carvana is riding a macro wave as well as a company‑specific one. If that wave fades or reverses, volatility could spike fast.
7. Key Things to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 11, 2025
Heading into Thursday’s session, here are the main issues short‑term traders and long‑term investors will be watching:
1. Can the 12‑day winning streak survive?
With CVNA up about 50% in 12 sessions and closing at a record near $468, the simplest question is whether momentum funds press for a 13th green day or whether profit‑taking finally shows up. Many technical screens already flag the stock as overbought. [29]
Watch for:
- Pre‑market indications relative to Wednesday’s close.
- Intraday action around recent highs near $474 — a break higher could invite more chasing, while repeated failures may attract short sellers.
2. Post‑Fed digestion across the market
The Fed’s decision and press conference landed late in Wednesday’s session, and markets will still be digesting the new dot plot and 2026 guidance on Thursday morning. [30]
For CVNA specifically:
- A continued risk‑on mood could support further multiple expansion, at least in the very short term.
- Any shift toward a “hawkish cut” narrative — more cuts now but fewer later — could pressure richly valued, high‑beta names like Carvana.
3. Fresh analyst notes or target changes
After:
- BofA’s target hike to $455,
- Evercore’s raise to $420,
- Needham’s reiterated $500,
- and other bullish notes in late November and early December, [31]
the next phase may be downgrades or more cautious language if firms begin to worry that the share price has moved too far above their models. Any shift from “Buy” to “Hold,” or language about “limited upside from current levels,” could trigger sharp intraday swings.
4. Short interest, options positioning and potential squeeze dynamics
Carvana’s short interest and options activity are central to its volatility:
- Short float around 8–11%, translating to low‑teens millions of shares. TechStock²+1
- Active, often deep in‑the‑money call options that forces market makers to delta‑hedge by buying stock, especially into strength. [32]
Into Thursday’s open, traders will be watching:
- Whether call open interest around key strikes (e.g., $450, $475, $500) grows or shrinks.
- Any sign that short sellers are covering aggressively or instead adding to positions into the strength.
5. New insider filings
Given the recent wave of insider sales, any additional Form 4 filings reported after Wednesday’s close will be scrutinized:
- More large disposals could reinforce the narrative that insiders are using this rally to de‑risk.
- Conversely, a pause in selling (or, improbably, an insider purchase) would be highlighted by bulls as a sign of confidence. [33]
6. Broader auto and consumer sentiment
Finally, Carvana trades within a wider ecosystem:
- Traditional automakers like GM and Ford have been left behind by CVNA’s move — a symbolic inversion many commentators have flagged. [34]
- Used‑car peers such as CarMax and various online platforms are dealing with slower industry growth and more normalised post‑pandemic demand. [35]
Any fresh data on consumer credit, auto delinquencies, or used‑car pricing could quickly spill over into Carvana’s perceived risk profile.
Bottom Line
After the bell on December 10, 2025, Carvana sits at the intersection of:
- A historic operational turnaround and genuine profitability,
- A powerful S&P 500 inclusion catalyst,
- A hyper‑extended momentum and valuation profile, and
- A macro backdrop temporarily friendly to high‑beta, rate‑sensitive names.
For traders heading into the December 11 open, CVNA is less a quiet value story and more a live‑wire instrument where index mechanics, short interest, options flows, insider behavior and Fed policy are all pulling on the same rope.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. www.barrons.com, 5. seekingalpha.com, 6. 247wallst.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. markets.chroniclejournal.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. markets.chroniclejournal.com, 12. finance.yahoo.com, 13. www.quiverquant.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.quiverquant.com, 20. www.benzinga.com, 21. 247wallst.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.quiverquant.com, 24. m.economictimes.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.livemint.com, 27. www.investopedia.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.barrons.com, 30. www.livemint.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. 247wallst.com, 33. www.investing.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.barrons.com
