Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) ended Thursday, December 18, 2025, firmly higher—and then mostly steadied in after-hours trading—after a session that rewarded riskier, rate-sensitive stocks following a cooler-than-expected inflation print.
CVNA shares closed at $465.74, up 4.37% on the day, and were last slightly higher at about $466.12 in after-hours trading as of 6:58 p.m. ET. [1]
The key question for traders and longer-term investors heading into Friday’s open (December 19): Was Thursday’s move simply a macro-driven bounce, or the start of another volatility burst fueled by index-inclusion flows and options expiration dynamics? Here’s what to know before the bell.
Carvana stock after the bell: the numbers investors are watching
Carvana’s Thursday session was active even by its usual standards, with the stock swinging several percentage points between the day’s low and high.
Key stats from Thursday’s regular session:
- Close: $465.74 (+4.37%) [2]
- After-hours (6:58 p.m. ET): ~$466.12 [3]
- Intraday range: roughly $448–$467 [4]
- Volume: about 3.9 million shares [5]
From a positioning standpoint, Thursday’s bounce also kept CVNA trading not far below its recent highs, with many market participants focused on whether the stock can challenge its upper range again—or whether profit-taking returns as liquidity shifts into Friday’s derivatives expiration.
What moved CVNA today: macro tailwinds did most of the work
1) Inflation cooled more than expected—and the market reacted quickly
The biggest market-wide catalyst Thursday was the November Consumer Price Index report. Reuters reported CPI rose 2.7% year over year, below the 3.1% economist forecast, and core inflation also eased—though the report came with caveats because data collection was disrupted by the earlier government shutdown. [6]
Why that matters for Carvana: CVNA is frequently treated as a high-beta, rate-sensitive equity. Softer inflation tends to lift expectations for easier monetary policy (or at least less restrictive policy), which can improve sentiment toward consumer/credit-exposed business models and growth stocks generally.
2) Jobless claims reinforced the “softening but stable” narrative
Separately, weekly jobless claims fell to 224,000, according to Reuters, suggesting layoffs remained relatively contained even as the labor market shows signs of cooling. [7]
That combination—cooler inflation + manageable labor-market stress—helped set a constructive tone for equities on the day.
3) The broader market rallied; high-volatility names benefited
A broad risk-on move also supported Carvana. The Associated Press described stocks rising after the inflation update, with the S&P 500 gaining and the Nasdaq leading as investors welcomed the data and reacted to major tech-related earnings news. [8]
Carvana’s stock move fit that template: when macro conditions push investors toward risk, CVNA often becomes part of the momentum basket.
Sector context: CarMax earnings put the used-car spotlight back on the group
Carvana doesn’t trade in a vacuum—especially on days when a major peer reports.
CarMax (KMX), the largest used-car retailer in the U.S., posted results that beat expectations on earnings and revenue, but the market reaction was cautious. Barron’s noted CarMax still saw revenue decline year over year and comparable-store used unit sales fall, and the company talked about cutting retail used unit margins while increasing marketing, without issuing formal guidance. [9]
Notably, MarketWatch’s data recap showed CarMax fell 4.21% Thursday while Carvana rose 4.37%, underlining how sharply investor preference has tilted toward Carvana’s story in 2025. [10]
This divergence matters going into Friday because it reinforces two competing narratives:
- Bull case: Carvana is continuing to take share and is being rewarded for execution and scale benefits.
- Bear case: If the used-car cycle and affordability pressures worsen, the whole group could face renewed scrutiny—especially stocks with premium valuations.
“After-hours headlines” for Carvana: no earnings, but a notable brand announcement
Carvana did not report earnings after the bell Thursday, but it did have a headline that kept its brand in the public eye.
Reuters reported that seven-time NASCAR champion Jimmie Johnson will drive a Carvana-sponsored car in the 2026 Daytona 500, with Carvana and Johnson unveiling the paint scheme Thursday. [11]
This type of announcement is typically more relevant to marketing and brand visibility than near-term fundamentals. Still, it contributes to steady newsflow at a time when the stock is heavily traded and highly sentiment-driven.
Forecasts and analyst views: what Wall Street expects from CVNA now
Consensus price targets suggest a tighter margin for error
One of the most important “reality checks” for a stock after a sharp run is how far it has moved relative to consensus targets.
MarketBeat’s compilation of analyst targets shows:
- Average 12-month price target: about $441.55
- High target:$550
- Low target:$275 [12]
With CVNA closing around $466, the stock is above the average target, implying that—at least on consensus—analysts see less upside and more two-sided risk from here. That doesn’t mean the stock can’t rise; it does mean expectations are higher, and reactions to catalysts (macro data, index flows, sentiment shifts) can be sharper.
The “index inclusion” story is still the mega-catalyst in the background
Even though it wasn’t new today, it remains highly relevant for what happens next: Carvana is scheduled to be added to the S&P 500 effective before trading opens Monday, December 22. Reuters previously reported the inclusion and highlighted the potential for forced buying by passive index funds.
That timing matters because Friday (Dec. 19) is the final full regular session before the effective date. Many index-linked strategies and funds seek to rebalance close to the effective moment, which can concentrate trading activity into specific windows (often late in the session).
What to know before the stock market opens tomorrow (Friday, Dec. 19)
Here are the practical catalysts and “watch items” for CVNA heading into the next session.
1) Friday is a major options-expiration day—and volatility can spike
Cboe’s 2025 options expiration calendar shows Friday, Dec. 19 as a standard options expiration date. [13]
It’s also widely recognized as a quarterly “triple witching” date—when stock options, index options, and index futures expirations overlap—an environment that can amplify late-day volume and abrupt price moves. [14]
Why this matters specifically for CVNA: Carvana is a stock that often experiences outsized moves when liquidity and hedging flows shift. On expiration days, dealer hedging and options positioning can influence intraday behavior, especially near heavily traded strikes.
2) Watch for S&P 500 “inclusion mechanics” into the close
Because Carvana’s S&P 500 inclusion becomes effective before Monday’s open, Friday’s session is the last major opportunity for some market participants to position for the rebalance. Reuters’ earlier reporting emphasized the role of passive fund buying tied to index inclusion.
What that can look like in practice:
- Increased volume
- Larger-than-usual closing auction activity
- Sharp swings late in the day if liquidity thins or if traders attempt to front-run/fade inclusion flows
3) Macro sentiment is supportive—but investors are debating the CPI signal quality
The CPI report boosted risk appetite today, but Reuters and other outlets noted the data may be distorted due to shutdown-related collection issues. [15]
If traders decide overnight that the “cool CPI” is less reliable, rate-cut optimism could fade quickly—often a headwind for high-beta names. Conversely, if the market doubles down on a dovish interpretation, CVNA can remain a beneficiary.
4) Broader market mood may be influenced by major tech/AI tape action
On days when major mega-cap or semiconductor news moves futures, high-momentum stocks can get pulled along even without company-specific headlines. Reuters highlighted Micron’s upbeat forecast as a driver of chip-sector strength and broader sentiment. [16]
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. finance.yahoo.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. apnews.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. www.marketwatch.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. cdn.cboe.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com
