Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) is back at the center of Wall Street’s attention on December 16, 2025, as the online used‑car retailer heads toward a major index milestone and picks up fresh analyst support. Shares were trading at $457.76, up about 2.2% on the session, after moving between $445.00 and $464.29 intraday (about 1.39 million shares traded as of 16:31 UTC).
The headline catalyst driving today’s chatter: Argus Research initiated coverage with a “Buy” rating and a $500 price target, a call that keeps the spotlight on a stock that has already delivered a dramatic multi‑year rebound—and is now days away from being added to the S&P 500. [1]
Below is what’s new today, what the latest forecasts imply, and the key bull/bear debate shaping Carvana stock into year‑end.
What’s happening with Carvana stock on Dec. 16, 2025
1) Argus initiates coverage: Buy rating, $500 price target
Argus Research’s new coverage stance is the most direct piece of stock‑specific news dated Dec. 16. According to reports published this morning, Argus launched with a Buy rating and a $500 price target, emphasizing Carvana’s perceived competitive advantages in areas like vehicle selection and customer experience. [2]
Why the $500 target matters right now:
- It reinforces the “momentum + fundamentals” narrative that has powered CVNA’s steep climb.
- It arrives just ahead of a major index event (more on that below), when investor positioning can be especially sensitive to incremental bullish signals.
Reuters’ market note also framed the target in trading terms, saying the $500 objective implied roughly 9.7% upside versus the prior close at the time of that report. [3]
2) S&P 500 inclusion is now a near-term event (Dec. 22 effective date)
Carvana is set to join the S&P 500 effective prior to the open on Monday, December 22, 2025, as part of the index’s quarterly rebalancing changes announced by S&P Dow Jones Indices. [4]
This matters because index membership can create mechanical demand: funds that track the S&P 500 may need to buy shares to match the benchmark. Investopedia noted that S&P 500 inclusion can bring “tangible benefits” and cited S&P Global’s estimate of $13 trillion indexed to the S&P 500 at the end of 2024—capital that can drive forced buying during reconstitutions and rebalances. [5]
Reuters similarly highlighted how dramatic the turnaround has been heading into inclusion, underscoring that the company’s market value has swelled to levels that rival (and at times exceed) legacy automakers. [6]
Carvana stock forecasts: what Wall Street expects from here
Forecasts for Carvana currently show a split personality: optimistic growth expectations paired with valuation and execution risk.
Price targets: wide range, bullish tilt
A Reuters market snapshot reported that the average rating from 27 analysts is “buy” and the median price target is $450, per LSEG-compiled data. [7]
Meanwhile, an aggregated view of analyst targets shows just how wide the dispersion remains:
- Average price target:$426.77
- Median price target:$450
- Low / High target:$275 / $550
- Consensus rating:Buy [8]
How to read that mix:
Even with many “Buy” ratings, the average target can sit below the current stock price when the stock has already run far and fast—meaning analysts may be bullish on the business trajectory while still seeing limited “clean upside” from today’s elevated levels.
Earnings and revenue outlook: growth expectations remain strong
Consensus models also point to a meaningful growth runway, with estimates calling for higher revenue and earnings into 2026. One widely used aggregation of Street forecasts lists:
- Revenue (this year): ~$20.31B
- Revenue (next year): ~$25.82B
- EPS (this year): ~5.29
- EPS (next year): ~7.20 [9]
(Note: aggregated forecast pages typically compile analyst inputs from third‑party feeds; treat these as consensus “directional” expectations rather than company guidance.) [10]
Recent target changes: Citi’s move and insider headlines
In the last several sessions, several firms have adjusted targets upward, reflecting the intensity of the run. For example, TradingView’s key-facts summary reported Citigroup raised its price target to $550 from $445, and also noted insider sales activity reported around December 12, 2025. [11]
This combination—upward target revisions alongside insider selling headlines—is common in late‑stage rallies and often fuels the debate over whether upside is “still early” or “already priced in.”
The fundamental backdrop: why investors (and skeptics) are locked in on CVNA
Carvana’s business momentum: demand and profitability narrative
Carvana’s resurgence isn’t happening in a vacuum. In its third-quarter results, Reuters reported the company posted higher profit and revenue, supported by strong demand for preowned vehicles. Reuters also pointed to consumers turning to used cars to avoid higher new‑car prices, and reported Q3 revenue of $5.65 billion, up 54.5% year over year, above the ~$5.08 billion analyst estimate cited in that report. [12]
That’s the core bull thesis in one line: scale + demand + operational leverage can drive expanding profitability if unit growth and per‑unit economics hold.
The index effect: why Dec. 22 is a big deal
The S&P 500 event is not just a headline—traders often treat it as a catalyst with a timeline:
- Announcement sparks a move.
- The stock can rally into the effective date as funds prepare.
- After inclusion, some stocks cool as the “forced buying” wave passes.
Carvana’s inclusion is explicitly scheduled to be effective before the open on Dec. 22, per S&P Dow Jones Indices. [13]
The bull case for Carvana stock: what optimists are betting on
- A structurally advantaged online model
Bullish analysts argue Carvana can keep taking share from traditional dealerships and benefit from a smoother digital buying experience—an angle explicitly echoed in today’s Argus initiation coverage. [14] - Operating leverage as volumes expand
If retail unit growth continues while fixed costs scale efficiently, margins can widen quickly. The strength in reported Q3 revenue growth provides fuel for that argument. [15] - S&P 500 rebalancing demand in the near term
Index‑tracking flows are not a guarantee of lasting upside, but they can be a powerful short‑term force. Carvana’s addition becomes effective Dec. 22, and Investopedia highlighted the scale of assets indexed to the benchmark. [16]
The bear case: the risks investors can’t ignore
- Valuation risk after a historic run
Even many bulls acknowledge the stock is no longer “cheap.” Reuters noted Carvana traded at 57.4 times forward earnings in the context of its S&P 500 inclusion rally—far above the single‑digit multiples typical for legacy Detroit automakers. [17]
Today’s Argus/coverage write‑ups also recognized valuation concerns, framing the premium as something that may be supported “near term” if growth persists. [18]
- Execution + credit sensitivity
Car sales—especially used-car retail—are highly sensitive to:
- consumer credit availability,
- interest rates,
- delinquencies,
- and wholesale price swings.
Carvana’s model can benefit from demand for lower-priced vehicles, but it can also be exposed to fast shifts in funding conditions and loss assumptions.
- Skepticism doesn’t disappear; it just gets repriced
Investopedia’s recap of Carvana’s “comeback for the ages” emphasized that not everyone is convinced, noting the presence of prominent skeptics even as the stock surged ahead of index inclusion. [19]
What to watch next for CVNA stock (Dec. 16 view)
If you’re following Carvana into the final stretch of 2025, here are the practical markers traders and longer-term investors are likely to focus on:
- Dec. 22, 2025: Carvana becomes an S&P 500 constituent effective before the open. [20]
- Price action vs. analyst targets: With a median target around $450 (per LSEG/Reuters) and fresh $500–$550 bull targets in circulation, the stock’s reaction to incremental news will be telling. [21]
- Any updates on unit growth and margins: The durability of the strong used-car demand trend described in the company’s Q3 coverage remains central. [22]
- Insider-trading headlines: Not automatically bearish, but often watched closely after parabolic moves. [23]
Bottom line: Carvana stock has new bullish coverage—but the market is now pricing in a lot
As of Dec. 16, 2025, Carvana stock is being pulled forward by two powerful forces: fresh bullish research (Argus’ $500 initiation) and the countdown to S&P 500 inclusion (effective Dec. 22). [24]
At the same time, the stock’s speed and valuation mean the bar for execution is high. The next phase for CVNA won’t be about whether the turnaround happened—it already did. It will be about whether Carvana can keep compounding unit growth and profitability fast enough to justify a valuation that even supporters admit is rich.
References
1. m.za.investing.com, 2. m.za.investing.com, 3. www.tradingview.com, 4. press.spglobal.com, 5. www.investopedia.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.tradingview.com, 8. stockanalysis.com, 9. stockanalysis.com, 10. stockanalysis.com, 11. www.tradingview.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. press.spglobal.com, 14. m.za.investing.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. press.spglobal.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. m.za.investing.com, 19. www.investopedia.com, 20. press.spglobal.com, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.tradingview.com, 24. m.za.investing.com
