NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 4:52 p.m. ET — Market closed.
Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) is heading into the final full trading week of 2025 with Wall Street still debating the same question that has fueled much of the stock’s narrative this year: after a blockbuster rebound and a spot in the S&P 500, is there still meaningful upside left for 2026—or are investors now paying too much for the turnaround?
With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, CVNA shares last finished at $438.47, down 0.7% in the most recent session, after trading between $436.74 and $446.39.
The latest Carvana stock news in the past 24–48 hours
Company-specific headlines have been relatively light during the holiday week, but fresh analyst-style coverage has been active—focusing less on “what happened today” and more on whether the rally can extend into 2026:
- Saturday (Dec. 27): A Barchart column recapped Carvana’s outsized 2025 performance and highlighted how the stock’s momentum has been supported by profitability progress, S&P 500 inclusion, and continued bullish analyst coverage—while also flagging valuation as a key debate into 2026. [1]
- Friday (Dec. 26): A Zacks analysis (carried on Nasdaq and Zacks) argued that Carvana appears positioned to extend its rally into 2026, citing demand trends, operational improvements, and upward earnings revisions. [2]
- Late week technical/consensus roundup: TipRanks published a technical-focused piece that labeled CVNA a “Buy” on its indicator set and summarized a Strong Buy-style consensus based on recent ratings, while acknowledging the stock’s already-massive run into year-end. [3]
Where Carvana stock stands now
Because the market is closed, investors are working from the last completed session’s tape and the most recent after-hours prints from Friday evening. The headline number is still striking: CVNA is finishing 2025 as one of the most talked-about consumer/discretionary momentum stories on the NYSE.
Barchart’s weekend recap noted that Carvana’s shares were up roughly 95.7% over the past year and 115.6% year-to-date, closing the last session at $438.47, and put the company’s market capitalization around $96.1 billion. [4]
That run has not been perfectly smooth. The same Barchart piece pointed out that the stock hit a 52-week high of $485.33 on Dec. 12, and has since pulled back from that peak. [5]
What’s powering the bull case: profits, scale, and the S&P 500 effect
Record Q3 results and a confident outlook
Much of the market’s optimism still traces back to Carvana’s most recent quarter and its outlook commentary.
In its third-quarter 2025 release, Carvana reported:
- 155,941 retail units sold (up 44% year over year)
- Revenue of $5.647 billion (up 55% year over year)
- Net income of $263 million (net income margin 4.7%)
- Adjusted EBITDA of $637 million (Adjusted EBITDA margin 11.3%) [6]
For guidance, Carvana said it expects Q4 retail units sold above 150,000 and expects full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA at or above the high end of its previously communicated $2.0–$2.2 billion range, assuming a stable environment. [7]
CEO Ernie Garcia framed the results as proof that Carvana can drive both growth and profitability at a new scale, pointing to what he described as structural advantages in the company’s vertically integrated model. [8]
S&P 500 inclusion: real flows, real spotlight
Carvana’s entry into the S&P 500 has been a major psychological (and mechanical) catalyst. Reuters reported that Carvana was set to be added to the S&P 500 effective Dec. 22, 2025, sending shares higher when announced. [9]
Barchart’s recap also emphasized the inclusion as a milestone of the turnaround story. [10]
The analyst forecast picture: price targets cluster in the mid-$400s, but the range is wide
With CVNA, it’s not just whether analysts are bullish—it’s how bullish they’re willing to be after the stock’s massive run.
Newer initiations and highlighted targets
Barchart noted two notable coverage initiations this month:
- Argus initiated with a Buy and a $500 price target
- UBS initiated with a Buy and a $450 price target, highlighting Carvana’s online platform and customer experience as drivers of share gains [11]
Separately, a MarketWatch report on the UBS initiation quoted UBS analyst Joseph Spak, who called Carvana a “true disruptor” and discussed a pathway for market-share growth (including a longer-term share ambition and a nearer-term trajectory). [12]
Consensus targets: similar direction, different data providers
Different aggregators show slightly different “average” targets and rating breakdowns, largely due to coverage lists and update timing.
- Barchart listed an average price target of $452.59, noting that while that figure implies only modest upside from the current price, the Street-high target of $550 suggests far more upside if the bull case plays out. [13]
- TipRanks summarized a Strong Buy-leaning consensus and displayed an average price target of $466.83 in its roundup. [14]
- MarketBeat’s forecast page put the average target at $446.32, while also listing $550 as the high end of the range and $275 at the low end—an unusually wide dispersion that reflects how polarizing Carvana’s valuation debate remains. [15]
Earnings expectations: the growth outlook remains aggressive
Both Barchart and Zacks-focused coverage points to a still-bullish earnings trajectory.
- Barchart cited projections calling for EPS to climb sharply to $5.39 in fiscal 2025 and then to $7.39 in fiscal 2026. [16]
- Zacks’ analysis (as published on Nasdaq/Zacks) pointed to expectations for continued sales and profit expansion in 2026, and noted that earnings estimates have been revised upward in recent months. [17]
One important nuance for investors: Carvana’s release also reminds readers that net income can be influenced by fair-value changes (for example, it flagged the impact from changes in the fair value of warrants), which is why many analysts and investors emphasize operational metrics like Adjusted EBITDA and unit economics. [18]
Risks investors are weighing: valuation, credit sensitivity, and short-driven volatility
Even many bulls concede that Carvana’s stock price now demands continued execution.
Valuation is the central tension
Barchart highlighted that CVNA’s forward earnings multiple sits well above broader-sector norms, underscoring that the market is already pricing in substantial continued growth. [19]
Barron’s also captured the caution from Robert Mollins of Gordon Haskett, who warned that Carvana’s valuation sits meaningfully above peers—potentially limiting further “multiple expansion” even if the company executes, and arguing that stocks added to the S&P 500 can sometimes normalize after the initial inclusion-driven surge. [20]
Used-car demand can be cyclical—and rate-sensitive
Carvana’s model is exposed to consumer credit conditions, financing availability, and used-vehicle pricing dynamics.
Earlier this year, Reuters quoted Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Cox Automotive, discussing how conditions that raise new-car prices can push consumers toward used vehicles—supporting companies like Carvana. [21]
Meanwhile, Zacks’ more recent analysis pointed to Cox Automotive expectations for steadier used-vehicle demand trends into 2026—supportive, but not a guarantee against volatility if rates, employment, or credit tighten. [22]
Short interest is not extreme, but it matters
Carvana remains a stock where positioning can amplify moves.
MarketBeat reported that, as of Dec. 15, 2025, Carvana had about 14.24 million shares sold short, roughly 7.83% of float, with a days-to-cover figure around 2.9. [23]
That’s not “meme-stock” territory, but it is enough to potentially intensify momentum-driven sessions—especially in thin holiday liquidity.
What investors should know before the next session
With the exchange closed, the near-term playbook for CVNA watchers is less about reacting to a Friday close and more about preparing for the next catalyst.
1) Expect holiday-thinned liquidity and faster swings
The final trading days of December often bring lighter volumes and more exaggerated intraday moves—particularly in high-beta names like Carvana. That doesn’t predict direction, but it can change risk management.
2) Watch for fresh analyst notes and year-end positioning
The most recent 24–48 hour flow of “news” has been heavily commentary-driven rather than headline-driven (Barchart and Zacks in particular). If new upgrades, target changes, or 2026 outlook pieces hit Sunday night or early Monday, they can disproportionately move the stock into year-end. [24]
3) Keep an eye on the S&P 500 after-effects
Carvana’s S&P 500 inclusion is no longer “new,” but the positioning around index membership, passive ownership, and the post-inclusion normalization debate is still influencing sentiment. [25]
4) Know the next earnings window—and treat calendar dates as estimates
Carvana’s next earnings date has not been universally consistent across third-party calendars, which is common before a company confirms a release date. Market calendars currently cluster around mid-to-late February 2026 (with estimates frequently centered around Feb. 18–19). [26]
5) The key “tell” for 2026 will be unit growth and durable margins
The bull case depends on Carvana proving it can keep scaling retail units while defending profitability. The company’s own outlook for Q4 units and full-year Adjusted EBITDA provides the current benchmark investors will measure against in the next report. [27]
Bottom line for Carvana stock heading into Monday
Carvana ends the week with the market closed, but the CVNA conversation is very much open: the company is posting record operational metrics and has earned mainstream index inclusion, yet the stock’s valuation now assumes that the turnaround becomes a durable, multi-year growth story.
Going into the next session, investors will be watching whether the stock can build support after its late-year surge—while balancing bullish forecasts (and mid-$400s average targets) against the reality that, for CVNA, execution matters more now than ever. [28]
References
1. www.barchart.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.tipranks.com, 4. www.barchart.com, 5. www.barchart.com, 6. investors.carvana.com, 7. investors.carvana.com, 8. investors.carvana.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.barchart.com, 11. www.barchart.com, 12. www.marketwatch.com, 13. www.barchart.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.barchart.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. investors.carvana.com, 19. www.barchart.com, 20. www.barrons.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.barchart.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. marketchameleon.com, 27. investors.carvana.com, 28. www.barchart.com
