Updated: December 12, 2025
Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) delivered another headline-making week on Wall Street as its shares pushed to new highs before pulling back into Friday’s close. The central catalyst: Carvana is set to be added to the S&P 500 on Dec. 22, a change that can trigger forced buying by funds that track the benchmark index. [1]
But index mechanics are only part of the story. In the last several days, Carvana has also been fueled by a wave of bullish research notes and price-target hikes, alongside renewed debate over valuation, insider selling, and the durability of its profitability-driven turnaround.
Below is a detailed recap of what moved CVNA this week, what analysts are forecasting now, and the key week-ahead (Dec. 15–19) catalysts traders are watching into the S&P 500 effective date.
CVNA this week: price action recap (week ended Dec. 12)
Carvana ended Friday, Dec. 12, at $455.68, down 3.61% on the day. [2]
Even with Friday’s dip, the stock logged a powerful week:
- Dec. 5 close: $399.77
- Dec. 12 close: $455.68
- Weekly gain: roughly +14% (based on those closes) [3]
Some notable daily moves from widely cited historical price feeds:
- Mon (Dec. 8): +12.06% close-to-close (close $447.98) on heavy volume [4]
- Tue–Thu (Dec. 9–11): continued gains into the $470s [5]
- Fri (Dec. 12): pullback to $455.68; intraday range roughly $455–$485 [6]
Meanwhile, multiple outlets highlighted the stock’s unusually long winning streak and momentum burst during the run-up, describing it as the longest such streak in its public-market history. [7]
The biggest catalyst: Carvana’s S&P 500 inclusion (effective Dec. 22)
The defining news item of the week is straightforward:
S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Carvana will join the S&P 500 effective prior to the open on Monday, Dec. 22, 2025. [8]
Per S&P’s announcement, Carvana, CRH, and Comfort Systems USA are being added, while LKQ, Solstice Advanced Materials, and Mohawk Industries are being removed from the S&P 500 in the quarterly rebalance. [9]
Why the S&P 500 addition can move the stock
When a company is added to the S&P 500, many index funds and ETFs that track the benchmark must buy the shares to mirror the index. Investopedia notes that about $13 trillion was indexed to the S&P 500 at the end of 2024, underscoring why index changes can create meaningful flows. [10]
Important nuance: the “forced buying” narrative can be real, but it doesn’t guarantee a straight line upward. Stocks sometimes rally into the event and then cool off after the rebalance (“buy the rumor, sell the news”)—especially if the market decides the good news is fully priced.
News + narrative fuel: analysts got louder (and targets moved higher)
Beyond the S&P headline, CVNA has been riding a surge in bullish commentary and target increases from major banks.
Recent notable price-target changes (last few days)
Benzinga’s compilation of the most recent analyst actions lists:
- Citigroup: price target raised to $550 (dated Dec. 12, 2025) [11]
- Jefferies: price target raised to $550 (dated Dec. 11, 2025) [12]
- Barclays: price target raised to $465 while maintaining Overweight (dated Dec. 11, 2025) [13]
Several market write-ups also referenced Bank of America reiterating a Buy view around the inclusion catalyst and raising targets in the days around the announcement. [14]
What the consensus forecast says right now
Here’s the tension investors are grappling with:
- Many “headline” targets have moved higher (including $550),
- Yet broad consensus targets are often still around the low-to-mid $400s, depending on the dataset and methodology.
Examples from commonly cited aggregators:
- MarketBeat shows an average target around $438.76 (with high $550 / low $275). [15]
- StockAnalysis shows an average target around $426.77 (with high $550 / low $275). [16]
- Benzinga lists a consensus target around $421.26, with the same high/low framing. [17]
With CVNA closing $455.68 on Dec. 12, that means the stock is trading near or above many consensus targets—while still below the most aggressive bullish calls. [18]
Under the hood: fundamentals that supporters point to
The S&P 500 adds oxygen, but Carvana’s bull case is ultimately anchored in operational improvement—especially profitability and unit growth.
Record Q3 results
In its Q3 2025 shareholder letter, Carvana reported:
- Retail units sold:155,941 (+44% YoY)
- Revenue:$5.647 billion (+55% YoY)
- Net income margin:4.7%
- Adjusted EBITDA:$637 million (Adjusted EBITDA margin 11.3%) [19]
These results were also echoed in Carvana’s Q3 earnings release. [20]
Management’s near-term outlook
Carvana’s outlook language (with the standard caveat “as long as the environment remains stable”) included:
- Q4 retail units sold above 150,000
- Full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA at or above the high end of the previously communicated $2.0–$2.2B range [21]
Market share and longer-term ambition
Carvana also framed itself as still relatively small versus the total addressable market—citing roughly ~1.5% of the U.S. used-car market and ~1% of the total U.S. car market—and reiterated a long-range goal of selling 3 million cars per year at a 13.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin within 5–10 years. [22]
Used-car market backdrop: a tailwind, but not a free lunch
A major macro variable for Carvana is used-vehicle pricing and supply.
Cox Automotive’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) showed wholesale used-vehicle prices rose to 205.4 in November 2025, up 1.3% month-over-month and roughly flat year-over-year (per the same release). [23]
What that can mean for Carvana (in plain English):
- Stabilizing wholesale prices may reduce “inventory whiplash” risk versus the steep declines of prior periods.
- But higher prices and higher financing costs can also pressure affordability, approvals, and monthly payments—especially for the subprime-heavy slices of the market that short-sellers and skeptics focus on.
Valuation and skepticism didn’t disappear
Carvana’s comeback has become so dramatic that it now raises an obvious question: how much is already priced in?
Reuters described Carvana’s market value climbing to nearly $97 billion, above Ford and General Motors at the time of that report, and said the stock traded around 57.4 times forward earnings, far above traditional automakers’ multiples. [24]
Several pieces this week also highlighted that the run threatened—or briefly crossed—the $100 billion market-cap threshold during intraday swings, illustrating how fast sentiment has moved. [25]
Even bulls often concede: at these levels, execution must stay exceptional, because multiple expansion may be harder to justify if growth slows.
Insider selling is in focus (but context matters)
Another active thread in the last days: executive and insider sales.
Examples reported this week include:
- A Carvana VP (Paul Breaux) selling about $4.75 million in stock, with the transactions described as executed under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. [26]
- Reports that Carvana’s Chief Product Officer (Daniel J. Gill) sold 40,000 shares on Dec. 12 for roughly $19 million, while also exercising options—again, commonly associated with pre-arranged selling plans and compensation mechanics. [27]
- Reports that Carvana’s COO (Benjamin Huston) sold 40,000 shares on Dec. 8 for roughly $17.6 million, tied to option exercises and a 10b5-1 plan. [28]
How to interpret it: insider sales are not automatically bearish—executives diversify, pay taxes on option exercises, and sell under scheduled plans. Still, heavy selling into a momentum-driven rally is something the market tends to watch closely, especially when passive index buyers are expected to enter the market soon.
The lingering short-seller debate: Hindenburg’s allegations vs. pushback
Carvana has been a frequent battleground between bulls and short sellers.
Hindenburg Research published a report alleging questionable practices, including claims around loan sales and related-party concerns. [29]
Reuters reported that Carvana called the Hindenburg report “intentionally misleading and inaccurate.” [30]
In the wake of the report earlier this year, Investopedia also reported that JPMorgan maintained an Outperform/Overweight-style stance and said its own research had not suggested “red flags.” [31]
This matters for the week ahead because CVNA remains a stock where narrative can move price quickly—sometimes faster than fundamentals.
Credit and funding: another (quiet) piece of the turnaround
Carvana’s 2022 stress episode was tied heavily to leverage and refinancing risk. Part of the turnaround narrative has been improving credit metrics and access to funding.
- S&P Global Ratings upgraded Carvana to ‘BB-’ in 2025 and raised issue-level ratings on senior unsecured debt to ‘B’ (per S&P’s published research update). [32]
- Moody’s also upgraded Carvana’s credit rating to B2 with a positive outlook in October 2025, citing improved operating performance and voluntary debt reduction. [33]
- KBRA reported upgrades/affirmations across multiple classes of notes from Carvana Auto Receivables Trust transactions in December 2025. [34]
Separately, Carvana has pointed to debt-reduction and maturity-extension efforts in prior disclosures and announcements as part of its plan. [35]
Week ahead for Carvana stock: what to watch (Dec. 15–19)
The next trading week is likely to be shaped by a single gravitational event: S&P 500 inclusion timing.
1) Index inclusion positioning and “rebalance week” volatility
Because Carvana enters the S&P 500 before the open on Monday, Dec. 22, a large portion of index-tracking repositioning typically occurs into the prior Friday’s close (Dec. 19) as funds aim to minimize tracking error.
That can create:
- elevated volume,
- sharp intraday swings,
- and, sometimes, a reversal if traders who “front-ran” the inclusion decide to take profits.
2) Additional analyst notes and “target-chasing”
With targets already moving rapidly (some up to $550), further notes can keep feeding momentum—especially if banks tie their thesis to market share gains versus CarMax, margin durability, or funding-cost improvements. [36]
3) Insider filing headlines
Given the recent spate of Form 4/144 headlines around executive sales, additional filings could create noise—fair or not—because the market is especially sensitive when a stock has run hard into a “forced buyer” event. [37]
4) Macro: rates, risk appetite, and used-car pricing signals
Carvana is highly sentiment-sensitive. If broader markets wobble or rates move, high-momentum names can swing harder in both directions. Reuters has noted the consumer-rate channel as a narrative factor (lower rates easing pressure on consumers), which investors may keep revisiting. [38]
And on the industry side, new reads on wholesale pricing (Manheim) can influence expectations for affordability and retail demand into 2026. [39]
Bottom line: CVNA enters a pivotal, high-volatility window
Carvana stock goes into next week with three forces colliding:
- Mechanical demand tied to S&P 500 inclusion,
- Fundamental optimism anchored in record results and confident outlook targets,
- Valuation and skepticism that can reassert quickly—especially after parabolic runs.
For investors, the key is separating short-term inclusion-driven price dynamics from the longer-term question: can Carvana sustain unit growth and profitability while managing credit and funding risk through the next cycle?
References
1. press.spglobal.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. www.investors.com, 8. press.spglobal.com, 9. press.spglobal.com, 10. www.investopedia.com, 11. www.benzinga.com, 12. www.benzinga.com, 13. www.benzinga.com, 14. www.benzinga.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. www.benzinga.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. investors.carvana.com, 20. investors.carvana.com, 21. investors.carvana.com, 22. investors.carvana.com, 23. www.coxautoinc.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.barrons.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. hindenburgresearch.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.investopedia.com, 32. www.spglobal.com, 33. www.investing.com, 34. www.kbra.com, 35. www.carvana.com, 36. www.benzinga.com, 37. www.tradingview.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.coxautoinc.com
