NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 2:38 PM ET — Market closed
Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) heads into the final week of 2025 with investors debating a familiar question: after a blockbuster year, does the rally still have room to run in 2026—or is the stock priced for perfection?
With U.S. stock markets closed for the weekend, Carvana shares are frozen at their most recent trading levels, leaving investors to parse a new round of year-end research notes, updated price targets, and the latest read-throughs on used-vehicle pricing and demand. CVNA last traded around $438.47, slipping about 0.7% in the most recent session, after spending much of December near record territory and inside a $148.25–$485.33 52-week range. [1]
Where CVNA stock left off—and why the weekend matters
Carvana has been one of 2025’s most talked-about momentum stories, with multiple outlets pointing to triple-digit year-to-date gains and a surge in investor attention after the company’s S&P 500 inclusion (effective Dec. 22, 2025). [2]
That backdrop matters because when a stock becomes a year-end “must-watch,” headlines can move expectations even when the tape is quiet. Over the last 24–48 hours, weekend coverage has largely focused on two themes:
- Analysts remain broadly constructive on Carvana’s operating momentum and unit growth, and
- Valuation and execution risk remain front-and-center after the stock’s steep climb.
A newly published weekend note circulated Sunday highlighted Carvana as a top 2026 internet idea in the wake of multiple bullish calls this month—effectively keeping CVNA in the spotlight heading into Monday’s open. [3]
The latest analyst headlines: price targets up to $550
Analyst revisions have been a major narrative driver for CVNA in recent months, and that trend continued into December:
- Wedbush analyst Scott Devitt raised his price target on Carvana to $500 from $400 and reiterated an Outperform rating (research note dated Dec. 19). [4]
- Argus initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $500 price target (reported Dec. 15). [5]
- Citi lifted its price target to $550 from $445, maintaining a Buy, and cited its retail unit sales tracker as showing November retail sales growth accelerating to 37% year over year from 32% in October. [6]
- Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni raised his price target to $550 from $475, also maintaining a Buy, while flagging the need to stay selective in internet stocks amid heavy investment cycles and broader AI-related disruption concerns. [7]
Taken together, those notes frame the bull case heading into 2026: sustained unit growth, operating leverage, and an expanding ecosystem that supports profitability—even as Carvana scales in a still-fragmented used-car market.
Forecasts and estimates: what “2026 upside” looks like on paper
The most widely circulated near-term analysis this weekend asks whether Carvana’s surge can extend into 2026—and leans on earnings estimate revisions as part of the argument.
A Zacks commentary (published on Nasdaq on Dec. 26) points to Carvana’s sharp 2025 outperformance and cites consensus expectations for 2026 sales and EPS to rise 31% and 37%, respectively, versus 2025 projections. It also notes the consensus 2026 EPS estimate has been revised higher by $0.40 over the past 60 days, signaling upward-moving expectations into next year. [8]
Meanwhile, a separate weekend analysis pegged Carvana’s FY2025 EPS at $5.39 (up sharply year over year) and FY2026 EPS at $7.39, reflecting continued growth expectations into 2026. [9]
Investors should keep in mind what these estimates represent: not guidance, but a snapshot of what analysts collectively think the company can deliver—an important distinction for a stock where valuation can swing quickly if the earnings “bar” moves.
Fundamentals that set the baseline: Q3 results and management’s outlook
Carvana’s latest official financial baseline remains its third-quarter 2025 report. In its Oct. 29 earnings release, Carvana reported:
- 155,941 retail units (+44% YoY)
- $5.65 billion revenue (+55% YoY)
- $263 million net income
- $637 million Adjusted EBITDA (11.3% margin)
For Q4, management said it expected retail units sold above 150,000, and reiterated that full-year Adjusted EBITDA should be at or above the high end of its previously communicated $2.0–$2.2 billion range (assuming a stable environment). [10]
CEO Ernie Garcia emphasized continued focus on what Carvana calls the “structural advantages” of its vertically integrated model—language investors have watched closely as the company attempts to scale profitably, not just grow volumes. [11]
The used-car market backdrop: Manheim index trends into year-end
Because Carvana’s business depends on sourcing, pricing, reconditioning, and financing used vehicles at scale, the broader used-vehicle pricing environment remains a critical variable for margins and demand.
Cox Automotive’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index mid-month update for December reported the index increased to 206.0, reflecting a 0.3% rise in wholesale used-vehicle prices (seasonally adjusted) in the first half of December compared with November, and a 0.6% increase versus December 2024. [12]
That data point doesn’t dictate Carvana’s results on its own, but it helps shape investor expectations around inventory costs, retail pricing power, and the health of the used-vehicle market as the calendar turns.
If markets are closed, what should investors focus on before Monday?
With CVNA not trading again until Monday, Dec. 29, investors typically use the weekend to stress-test their thesis against the next set of “known unknowns.” For Carvana stock, the most practical checklist looks like this:
1) Watch for how the market opens—and how high-beta names trade into year-end.
Late-December sessions can bring thinner liquidity, sharper moves, and positioning effects. If the broader market turns risk-on, high-momentum consumer internet stocks can benefit; if risk appetite fades, they can retrace quickly. (CVNA has behaved like a high-beta name for much of its comeback run.)
2) Track whether “estimate momentum” keeps improving.
Carvana’s narrative into 2026 leans heavily on growing confidence in earnings power. That’s why investors are watching analyst estimate revisions as closely as headline price targets. [13]
3) Remember the next major catalyst is likely earnings—date not yet formally announced by the company.
Several market calendars currently show Carvana’s next earnings as estimated around Feb. 18, 2026 (typical timing for Q4 results), but investors should treat that as a market estimate until Carvana posts a confirmed date on its investor relations site. [14]
4) Keep an eye on the “sell-side tug-of-war”: targets are high, but so is scrutiny.
Even with multiple firms lifting targets into the $500–$550 range, the stock’s valuation has been a recurring caution flag in recent coverage—especially after the S&P 500-driven visibility boost. [15]
Bottom line for CVNA stock heading into Monday
Carvana enters the next session with a powerful setup: strong recent fundamentals, bullish analyst target revisions, and a year-end spotlight that has kept CVNA near the center of the momentum conversation. [16]
But that same spotlight raises the stakes. When expectations are climbing—and price targets cluster near or above prior highs—investors tend to react more sharply to any incremental datapoint on demand, used-vehicle pricing, or profitability trajectory.
For Monday’s open, the key question isn’t simply “Can CVNA go higher?” It’s whether the next wave of trading confirms that the market is still willing to pay a premium for Carvana’s growth story heading into 2026.
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.barchart.com, 3. finviz.com, 4. www.tipranks.com, 5. www.tipranks.com, 6. www.tipranks.com, 7. www.tipranks.com, 8. www.nasdaq.com, 9. www.barchart.com, 10. investors.carvana.com, 11. investors.carvana.com, 12. www.coxautoinc.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. www.barrons.com, 16. investors.carvana.com
