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Geopolitics News 6 October 2025 - 29 October 2025

Putin’s Oil Nightmare: Ukraine’s Drone Blitz Cripples 20% of Russia’s Refining – Oil Markets Rally

Putin’s Oil Nightmare: Ukraine’s Drone Blitz Cripples 20% of Russia’s Refining – Oil Markets Rally

Ukraine’s Deep-Strike Oil Campaign Ukraine has dramatically expanded its drone and missile strikes against Russia’s energy sector. Since early 2025 Kyiv has carried out dozens of long-range raids “hundreds of kilometers” inside Russia, deliberately targeting refineries, pipelines and fuel depots ts2.tech. In an Oct. 24 speech Zelenskyy noted, “We hit a certain number of their refineries… When they started to restore and saw the queues of cars, they redistributed the volumes to other refineries.” He vowed to keep up pressure on every spare plant that is boosting output eenews.net. Independent analysis confirms the scope of the campaign. BBC Verify finds
29 October 2025
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New AI Fighter Jet X-BAT Aims to Outsmart China’s First-Strike Threat

New AI Fighter Jet X-BAT Aims to Outsmart China’s First-Strike Threat

China’s Runway-Busting Threat U.S. analysts warn that China’s military doctrine emphasizes crippling U.S. airpower on the ground. The People’s Liberation Army has deployed thousands of long-range precision missiles (including anti-ship “carrier killer” DF-21D/DF-26 missiles) to hit U.S. carriers and Pacific airfields foxnews.com. “They’ve basically said, ‘We’re not going to compete stealth-on-stealth in the air — we’ll target your aircraft before they even get off the ground,’” explains Armor Harris, Shield AI’s VP of Aircraft Engineering foxnews.com. Indeed, modern air wars often begin by striking runways or airbases (Israel’s strike on Iran’s airfields, or Russian strikes on Ukrainian runways) to prevent
27 October 2025
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Indonesia’s $9B Chinese Fighter Jet Deal Shocks the World

Indonesia’s $9B Chinese Fighter Jet Deal Shocks the World

Indonesia’s abrupt pivot to Chinese fighters has captured global attention. Defense analysts say it underscores Jakarta’s insistence on strategic autonomy. “Foreign actors can spread disinformation, but at the end of the day, Indonesia buys what it chooses,” writes analyst Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat asiatimes.com. In practice, Jakarta is “quietly demonstrating that strategic autonomy is possible” – fielding the latest jets from East and West while balancing great-power pressures asiatimes.com. For now, Southeast Asian neighbors and global arms makers will be watching closely how this deal unfolds and how it reshapes the region’s airpower balance. Sources: Official statements and budget documents; reporting
18 October 2025
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Oil Prices Plunge to 5-Month Low as Trump-Putin Summit Looms & India’s Russian Oil U-Turn Rattles Markets

Oil Prices Plunge to 5-Month Low as Trump-Putin Summit Looms & India’s Russian Oil U-Turn Rattles Markets

Oil Slumps on Peace Talk Signals and Supply Surge Oil prices tumbled to five-month lows this week, capping a third straight weekly decline. Benchmark Brent crude is hovering near $60 per barrel, down about 3% for the week, while U.S. WTI fell toward $57 reuters.com. Both indices are at their weakest levels since early May reuters.com. The selloff accelerated after a surprise geopolitical development: President Trump announced he and President Putin will hold a summit in Budapest within weeks to discuss ending the Ukraine war reuters.com. The prospect of a peace deal – or at least a de-escalation – has
17 October 2025
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China’s Rare-Earth Gambit: Tech Stocks Crash, Miner Profits Soar Amid Trade War Escalation

China’s Rare-Earth Gambit: Tech Stocks Crash, Miner Profits Soar Amid Trade War Escalation

What Happened: China’s New Controls On Oct. 9, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued “Announcement No. 61” of 2025, dramatically expanding export controls on critical minerals ts2.tech reuters.com. Five additional rare-earth elements (holmium, erbium, thulium, europium, ytterbium) were added to the restricted list, on top of seven elements already curbed in April aljazeera.com ts2.tech. In total 12 of the 17 rare-earth metals now require special licenses for export aljazeera.com. Beyond raw elements, China also slapped new controls on processing equipment and technology needed to refine these minerals aljazeera.com ts2.tech. Notably, Chinese rules will apply extraterritorially: foreign firms using Chinese-sourced rare earths
12 October 2025
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Rare Earth Goldmine? MP Materials Stock Skyrockets on Pentagon Deal & China Tensions

Rare Earth Goldmine? MP Materials Stock Skyrockets on Pentagon Deal & China Tensions

Spectacular Rally Fueled by Strategic Deals MP Materials’ stock performance in 2025 has been nothing short of remarkable. Shares have exploded higher on the back of transformative deals and the prospect of a secure American rare-earth supply chain. The stock is up nearly 4-fold this year, recently trading around $75–$80 per share ts2.tech. In late August, MP hit an all-time high near $82 before a brief pullback ts2.tech. Even after cooling slightly, shares remain ~350% above where they started the year. Elevated trading volume accompanied this rally (e.g. 13+ million shares on one day in late September, ~42% above average),
11 October 2025
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USA Rare Earth (USAR) Stock Skyrockets on Major UK Acquisition and White House Talks

Rare Earth Gold Rush: USA Rare Earth (USAR) Stock Skyrockets on White House Buzz and China Tensions

Company Background & Operations USA Rare Earth, Inc. is a U.S.-based critical minerals company focused on establishing a fully domestic rare-earth supply chain – from mining raw ore to producing finished rare-earth magnets. Its flagship asset is the Round Top Mountain deposit in Texas, which contains a broad spectrum of rare earth elements (including heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium) ts2.tech. Through a joint venture with Texas Mineral Resources Corp., USAR controls Round Top and is developing it as a secure source of raw materials for its magnet production plans ts2.tech. On the downstream side, USAR is building a neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnet manufacturing facility in
10 October 2025
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This Tiny US Miner Could Shatter China’s Rare-Earth Monopoly – USAR Stock Explodes on White House Buzz

This Tiny US Miner Could Shatter China’s Rare-Earth Monopoly – USAR Stock Explodes on White House Buzz

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (NASDAQ: USAR) is a development-stage rare-earth miner and magnet-maker founded in 2019, publicly listed via SPAC on March 14, 2025 ts2.tech. Its flagship asset is the Round Top Mountain deposit in Texas (via a JV with Texas Mineral Resources), rich in heavy rare-earths like dysprosium and terbium ts2.tech. USAR is building a vertically integrated “mine-to-magnet” supply chain: mining Round Top, processing oxides, and manufacturing NdFeB magnets at a plant in Stillwater, Oklahoma (expected online ~2026, initially 1,200 tpa expanding to ~5,000 tpa) globenewswire.com ts2.tech. In late September 2025 USAR announced a transformative acquisition of UK-based Less
10 October 2025
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TSMC Stock Soars on AI Boom: Record Highs, Big Ambitions & Geopolitical Risks (Oct 2025 Update)

TSMC Stock Soars on AI Boom: Record Highs, Big Ambitions & Geopolitical Risks (Oct 2025 Update)

Overview: TSMC’s Business and Recent Performance Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is the world’s largest contract chipmaker (pure-play foundry), producing advanced semiconductors for clients like Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, and many others taiwannews.com.tw ts2.tech. Rather than selling its own branded chips, TSMC builds chips to order, focusing on cutting-edge manufacturing processes. This model has made TSMC a pillar of global tech supply chains and given it an estimated 60%+ market share of the overall foundry market (and over 90% share in the most advanced nodes) ts2.tech. Financially, TSMC has been on a strong growth trajectory. In Q2 2025, TSMC’s revenue reached US$30.1 billion, a 44%year-on-year surge, with net profit of
8 October 2025
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Turkey’s Gas Revolution: Erdogan’s LNG Pivot Threatens Russia & Iran’s Energy Grip

Turkey’s Gas Revolution: Erdogan’s LNG Pivot Threatens Russia & Iran’s Energy Grip

Turkey’s Gas Pivot: LNG Deals and Domestic Production Turkey is undertaking a strategic overhaul of its gas supply. Once overwhelmingly dependent on pipeline gas from Russia and Iran, Ankara is now doubling down on alternative sources. State energy company BOTAŞ has struck a flurry of long-term LNG deals with a range of suppliers. In September, it signed a landmark 20-year agreement with Mercuria to import about 4 bcm of U.S. LNG annually starting in 2026 tradingview.com. This single deal will total roughly 70 bcm over two decades. Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar hailed it as a “milestone” for Turkey’s energy security,
8 October 2025
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Critical Metals Corp (CRML) Skyrockets on U.S. Stake Rumors – Inside the Tanbreez Rare Earth Power Play

Washington’s Greenland Rare Earth Gambit: Critical Metals Soars as U.S. Eyes Strategic Stake

U.S. Eyes Stake in Greenland Rare Earth Project The U.S. government has been in talks to take an equity stake in Critical Metals Corp, the company developing the Tanbreez rare earths mine in Greenland reuters.com. According to an exclusive Reuters report, Trump administration officials discussed a potential deal that would convert a $50 million Defense Production Act grant into shares of the company reuters.com reuters.com. At $50 million, an investment would equate to roughly 8% ownership of Critical Metals, though negotiations are preliminary and the stake size could change if a deal advances reuters.com. Importantly, this stake would be separate
6 October 2025
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TSMC Stock Surges on AI Boom and U.S. Expansion: What to Know on Sep 23, 2025

TSMC’s 2025 Crossroads: AI Boom, 2‑nm Chips and Geopolitical Headwinds – What It Means for Investors

Key Facts – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) as of 6 October 2025 Overview and Recent Developments Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) is the world’s largest pure‑play foundry and a pillar of global supply chains. In late September and early October 2025, its stock and strategic decisions drew significant attention, reflecting booming demand for artificial‑intelligence chips, ambitious global expansion and mounting geopolitical risks. Stock Performance around 6 October 2025 TSMC’s shares rallied sharply in late September. On 2 October 2025, the Taipei‑listed stock set an intraday record of NT$1 ,370 and closed at NT$1 ,365 after a 3.29 % surge in U.S.‑listed shares taiwannews.com.tw. The gains lifted the company’s market
6 October 2025
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