NASDAQ:CEG 2 November 2025 - 7 December 2025

Constellation Energy Corporation has gone from “boring utility” to one of Wall Street’s most closely watched AI infrastructure plays in 2025. With a fresh $1 billion federal loan to restart the Three Mile Island Unit 1 reactor, deep power-purchase deals with Microsoft and Meta, and a stock that has surged more than 60% this year, investors are asking the obvious question: Is Constellation Energy stock still a buy after its huge run, or are expectations getting ahead of reality?

In the short term, the outlook for Constellation Energy remains positive but with a moderating trajectory. Analysts expect the stock to hover around the high-$300s over the next year, implying a small single-digit percentage upside from current levels. This tempered expectation comes after a tremendous rally – the market has likely priced in much of the good news. Upcoming catalysts include the Q3 2025 earnings report, where investors will parse any updates to 2025 guidance and hear initial commentary on Q4’s post-merger operations. Given that Q4 will likely include Calpine’s results for the first time, management’s discussion of combined-company earnings and synergy capture will be crucial. If Constellation beats estimates or raises its outlook, the stock could get another leg up. We will also watch for new contract announcements – Angie Storozynski’s call for more data center deals could prove prescient. Any headline of another tech giant signing a multi-decade nuclear PPA with Constellation would likely excite investors and analysts, reinforcing the growth narrative. Another short-term factor is the broader market sentiment on utilities and rate-sensitive stocks. With the Fed’s rate cuts anticipated to continue into 2026, defensive sectors might catch a bid. However, if economic data come in hot