
Wolfspeed, Inc. shares dropped 19.0% last week to close at $25.76. The decline came after results revealed that surging AI demand has yet to fill the company’s factories. Revenue is currently around $202 million below management’s target for annual gross-margin breakeven.
Underutilization: adjusted gross margin remained negative 19.9%.
Flat near term: the $150 million Q1 midpoint barely changes the revenue pace.
AI base undisclosed: revenue doubled, but investors cannot see its dollar contribution.
Debt cost: $630 million of first-lien debt carries about 16% interest.
| Measure | Reading | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $149.6M | −24.1% reported YoY |
| AI data-center revenue | >2× | FY2026 vs. FY2025 |
| Adjusted gross margin | −19.9% | +0.7 pt QoQ |
| Adjusted EBITDA | −$62M | Roughly flat |
| Operating cash flow | −$54M | Inventory aided by $41M |
| Capital spending | $5M | Down from $38M |
| Measure | Reading | Vs. $25.76 |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Hold | 13 analysts |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 4 / 5 / 4 | Near-even split |
| Average target | $16.00 | −37.9% |
| Newest target | $25.00 | −3.0% |
| Recent high target | $30.00 | +16.5% |
Data-center demand is rising. Revenue scale and cash conversion remain the binding constraints.
Adjusted burn removes the $41m inventory benefit. It is a preliminary estimate, not company guidance, and excludes debt repayment and future capital needs.
The average offers 4.4% upside from Thursday's close. Susquehanna set $30; TD Cowen set $25 on August 20.