NEW YORK, Jan 26, 2026, 14:28 EST — Regular session
Caterpillar shares climbed roughly 1.7% to $637.22 in Monday afternoon trading, bouncing between $620.25 and $639.00 earlier. Around 1.3 million shares changed hands.
This shift turns the spotlight onto a Dow component that investors usually see as a barometer for major spending, spanning construction sites to mining operations. With earnings due this week, the stock has slipped into “wait-for-the-print” territory.
Macro factors are playing a role as well. The Federal Reserve’s meeting on Jan. 27-28 could swiftly shift rate expectations, impacting machinery stocks linked to credit and capital expenditures. 1
U.S. stocks climbed across the board as investors prepared for a packed week of earnings reports and the upcoming Fed decision. Chris Larkin of E*Trade at Morgan Stanley noted, “Wednesday’s Fed announcement will likely keep politics in the headlines.” 2
Caterpillar plans to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings at 5:30 a.m. CST on Thursday, Jan. 29. 3
According to a Nasdaq.com earnings preview, analysts expect revenue to rise but profits to fall compared to last year. Estimates project earnings of $4.67 per share on roughly $17.89 billion in revenue. 4
Peers showed more stability: Deere barely moved, as the broader market stayed buoyant, with the S&P 500 ETF SPY gaining roughly 0.7%.
Options traders are betting on about a 6% swing around the report, judging by the prices of short-dated contracts. This “implied move” reflects the market’s guess at potential stock volatility—it’s not a forecast. 5
Tariffs continue to cast a shadow over earnings reports, with investors keenly watching for clues on how costs and pricing power are shifting in global supply chains. “Most consumers are still mad about the level of current prices,” noted Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, in a Reuters piece examining tariff impacts on margins.
That rebound leaves the bigger issue untouched: guidance. A hesitant outlook on demand, financing, or margins could turn a one-day gain into a swift retreat.
Wednesday brings the Fed’s latest decision along with Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Then, ahead of U.S. trading on Jan. 29, Caterpillar will release its earnings report. 6
