New York, Jan 9, 2026, 21:15 EST — Market closed.
- Caterpillar shares climbed 1.6% on Friday, following the S&P 500’s record closing high
- After a weaker U.S. jobs report, investors adjusted their expectations for Fed rate cuts
- A pending Supreme Court tariff case and next week’s inflation data stand as the upcoming catalysts
Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT) shares climbed 1.56%, ending Friday at $617.62. The gain came amid a broad rally that lifted the S&P 500 to a record high. 1
The move matters because Caterpillar straddles the divide between interest rates and real-economy spending. When borrowing costs drop, orders for expensive equipment usually become more palatable; but when trade policies tighten, supply chains and final demand can wobble.
Friday’s mood on the market hinged on a jobs report revealing slower hiring alongside a drop in unemployment, complicating predictions for the Fed’s next step. Investors also held their breath for the U.S. Supreme Court’s verdict on a critical tariff case linked to former President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs. 2
Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 50,000 in December, falling short of expectations, according to the Labor Department. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted the “low-hire environment continues,” while Fitch Ratings’ Olu Sonola suggested the decline in the jobless rate “should douse the Fed’s recent urgency” to support the labor market. 3
On tariffs, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters the Treasury could handle any refunds if the court cancels the levies, but said payouts would be staggered and dismissed the idea as a “corporate boondoggle.” The court held off on a tariff decision Friday, leaving the timing — and market fallout — up in the air. 4
The next macro hurdle arrives Tuesday with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics set to publish December’s consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Federal Reserve will hold its next policy meeting on Jan. 27-28. 5
Caterpillar is set to announce its quarterly earnings around Jan. 29, with Zacks forecasting $4.54 per share. Investors will be focused on any 2026 guidance, especially around pricing, dealer inventories, and demand in construction, mining, and energy sectors. 6
Income investors are eyeing Jan. 20 closely: Caterpillar has set its ex-dividend and record date for that day, locking in a $1.51 quarterly payout. The payment will follow on Feb. 19. 7
But the picture isn’t straightforward. China’s consumer inflation ticked up in December, while factory-gate prices remained in deflation. Economists highlighted weak demand and overcapacity—factors that could dampen appetite for machinery tied to commodities and construction. 8
CAT is trading just under 2% shy of its 52-week peak at $627.50, having fluctuated between $608.20 and $619.15 on Friday. As U.S. markets reopen Monday, investors are focused on any Supreme Court tariff announcements and the CPI report due Tuesday. 9
