Sydney, Jan 8, 2026, 16:50 AEDT — Market closed
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) closed up a fraction on Thursday, ending 0.03% higher at A$153.27 after swinging between A$152.45 and A$153.76. Turnover was about 1.0 million shares, after a 1.68% drop in the prior session. 1
Why it matters now: CBA is a rates stock in a market that can’t settle on rates. A softer November inflation read cooled the immediate panic, but it did not kill the chance of another Reserve Bank of Australia move, and investors keep pushing the timing around. 2
On Thursday, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the inflation slowdown was “helpful” but broadly expected, and warned policymakers still see the level as too high. “Inflation above 3% — let’s be clear, it’s too high,” he said, according to an ABC interview. 3
The bank sector has already started repricing. On Wednesday, interest-rate swaps — derivatives that reflect where traders think the cash rate is heading — implied about a 35% chance of a quarter-point hike next month, and CBA slid 1.7% to a near four-week low as other big banks also fell. Greg Boland, a market strategy consultant at Moomoo Australia, said “odds of a hold or even modest hikes” now outweighed fresh cuts in the near term. 4
CBA trades on a rich multiple by local bank standards, leaving less room for surprises to go the right way. The stock’s 52-week range is A$140.21 to A$192.00, and it changes hands at about 25 times trailing earnings, Investing.com data show. 5
With the market shut, the next company marker is already circled: CBA is due to report half-year results and announce an interim dividend on Feb. 11, with the interim dividend set to go ex-dividend on Feb. 18, the bank’s financial calendar shows. Investors will watch the net interest margin, bad-debt trends and any hints on mortgage competition. 6
But the bigger near-term risk for the whole bank tape is macro. The ABS will publish December and December-quarter CPI on Jan. 28 at 11:30 a.m. AEDT, and a hot print would likely lift hike odds again — bad news for valuations and sentiment, even if higher rates can help margins. 7
