Toronto, March 12, 2026, 20:04 EDT
Cenovus Energy surged 4.6% to C$32.18 on Thursday, landing the stock among TMX’s 52-week highs as oil barrel prices rapidly approached $100.
This shift is significant: Cenovus is targeting 2026 upstream output between 945,000 and 985,000 boepd following its acquisition of MEG Energy last year. On Thursday, the International Energy Agency called the Middle East conflict the biggest oil supply disruption ever recorded.
Goldman Sachs on Thursday bumped up its fourth-quarter Brent and WTI price targets to $71 and $67 a barrel, up from $66 and $62, citing expectations for a more prolonged snag in shipments via the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA’s move to tap strategic reserves—releasing a record 400 million barrels—offers some relief, but Goldman warned that logistical constraints could delay the impact felt by the market.
Tough day out there. Canada’s main stock index dropped 0.8%, hitting its lowest level in a month as investors bailed on financials and industrials, spooked by inflation. Still, energy stocks bucked the trend, up 2.1%. U.S.-traded shares of Canadian Natural Resources and Suncor moved higher too, suggesting Cenovus’ jump wasn’t an isolated story—investors were piling into oil across the board.
Jim Burkhard, vice president and global head of crude oil research at S&P Global Energy, described the situation bluntly: “the market is seriously unbalanced” until the strait is back open and regular flows pick up again. Carson Group’s chief market strategist, Ryan Detrick, pointed out that outside of energy, nowhere has felt safe—investors have simply been dumping positions. Reuters
Cenovus headed into the session already riding some operational tailwinds. Just last month, the company kicked off drilling on 42 new wells at the former MEG site—an addition that bulked up its lineup by roughly 100,000 barrels a day. Fourth-quarter output landed at 917,900 boepd. Shareholders saw C$1.1 billion come back their way through a mix of buybacks and dividends. West White Rose remains pointed toward first oil in the second quarter. As for synergy from the MEG deal, Cenovus expects to hit around C$150 million annually in both 2026 and 2027.
Still, oil shares often lose steam after war-driven surges. James West, who leads energy and power research at Melius Research, pointed out that traders are largely positioning for a quick reopening of Hormuz and expecting crude prices to slide back to where they were.
Cenovus faces its own execution risks. Back in February, the company flagged that scheduled U.S. refinery maintenance might push third-quarter throughput down by 35,000 to 45,000 barrels per day, and fourth-quarter volumes could drop 40,000 to 50,000 barrels a day. If crude prices hold up but refinery output stumbles, that’s enough to put a dent in some potential gains.
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