Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) heads into Thursday’s U.S. session with a slightly firmer tone after a busy day of news and a modest after‑hours uptick on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. Shares climbed almost 2% during regular trading, outpacing the broader market, as investors weighed fresh analyst research, new offshore drilling wins, and ongoing debate over where oil prices are headed next. [1]
With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hovering around $58 per barrel and Brent near $62, the stock will open on December 11 against a backdrop of persistent oversupply worries, geopolitical tension, and a still-generous dividend yield above 4%. [2]
How Chevron Stock Traded on December 10
Chevron closed Wednesday’s regular session at $151.41, up 1.97% from the prior close of $148.49, according to Zacks data. [3] MarketWatch’s after‑hours tape showed the stock edging a bit higher to about $151.62, a roughly 0.1% move after the bell. [4]
Intraday, MarketBeat reported that CVX traded as high as $151.80, with volume of roughly 10.7 million shares – about 21% above its recent average of 8.85 million. [5] That suggests institutions were active into the close rather than leaving the move entirely to retail noise.
On valuation metrics, MarketBeat’s snapshot for December 10 showed: [6]
- Market cap around $304.6 billion
- P/E ratio ~21.3 and P/E/G ~8.8
- Debt‑to‑equity ~0.19, with a current ratio ~1.15 and quick ratio ~0.86
- A 50‑day moving average near $152.94 and a 200‑day average around $151.90
In plain English: the stock is trading almost exactly where long‑term trend followers would expect it to be, not in “blown‑out bargain” territory but also nowhere near euphoric highs.
Dividend, Q3 Momentum and Analyst Snapshot
Chevron’s income story is still front and center. The company currently pays a $1.71 quarterly dividend, or $6.84 annually, which works out to a yield of roughly 4.5–4.6% at Wednesday’s closing price. [7] MarketBeat puts the payout ratio near 96% on its earnings measure, underscoring how much of reported profit is being returned to shareholders. [8]
Q3 2025 results, reported at the end of October, are still shaping the narrative:
- Adjusted EPS: $1.85 vs consensus around $1.66–$1.71
- Revenue: $49.7 billion, down about 1.9% year‑on‑year and a bit shy of some estimates around $53.6 billion
- Record production: about 4.09 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up more than 20% YoY, boosted by the Hess acquisition and Permian growth
- Free cash flow: roughly $4.9 billion in the quarter, with $9.4 billion in operating cash flow
- Capital returns: dividend maintained at $1.71 per share; about $2.6 billion in share repurchases during Q3 [9]
Against that backdrop, the sell‑side view is mixed but generally constructive:
- MarketBeat’s tally: 1 Strong Buy, 11 Buys, 7 Holds, 4 Sells, with a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of about $166–167 per share – roughly 10% above Wednesday’s close. [10]
- Zacks currently assigns Chevron a Rank #3 (Hold). [11]
Even the earnings forecasts don’t completely agree. Zacks’ consensus calls for:
- Upcoming quarterly EPS around $1.61, down about 22% vs the same quarter last year
- Quarterly revenue near $53.6 billion, about 2.7% growth YoY
- Full‑year 2025 EPS of $7.47 and revenue of $191.7 billion, both below 2024 levels [12]
MarketBeat, using a different methodology, shows a full‑year EPS figure closer to $10.8. [13] That spread alone is a reminder that “consensus” is not a single, clean number.
Fresh Research from December 10: Bulls vs. Worriers
1. “Don’t Let 2025 Returns Cloud Your Judgment” – Upgrade
Seeking Alpha contributor Vladimir Dimitrov upgraded Chevron on December 10, arguing that 2025 has been a “nothing year” for the share price – roughly flat vs a year ago – but that this masks longer‑term outperformance and a strong defensive profile. [14]
His core points:
- Weak energy prices are already reflected in the share price.
- The high, seemingly secure dividend yield is rare in today’s market.
- Investors focusing only on the dull 2025 price performance risk missing the longer‑term risk/reward.
This is the classic “boring now, interesting later” energy thesis.
2. “Chevron Looks Undervalued Yielding 4.6%” – Value Angle
A second Seeking Alpha piece published on December 10 pitched Chevron as undervalued with a 4.6% yield, leaning on the combination of: [15]
- Strong free cash flow supported by record production
- The Hess acquisition’s growth runway in Guyana
- A long history of dividend reliability and buybacks
In this view, Chevron is essentially a high‑yield “bond‑like” equity with embedded call options on higher future oil prices and AI‑related power demand.
3. “Oil Uncertainties Outweigh Free Cash Flow Emergence” – Cautious Hold
Balancing that, another December 10 analysis titled “Chevron: Oil Uncertainties Outweigh Free Cash Flow Emergence” took a more cautious stance, rating the shares a Hold. The author highlights: [16]
- The impressive free‑cash‑flow ramp after the Hess deal and recent restructuring
- But high sensitivity to crude prices, just as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) now projects Brent falling toward $55 per barrel in 2026 [17]
In other words: cash generation is improving, but macro headwinds may cap upside in the near term.
4. Quant and DCF Views: “Under‑valued” on Paper
Quant‑style valuation work also tilted bullish on December 10:
- Simply Wall St’s discounted‑cash‑flow model suggests Chevron is about 55–56% undervalued relative to its estimated fair value, even though the stock trades on a P/E near 23x, slightly above peers. [18]
- Zacks notes Chevron’s forward P/E near 20x vs an industry average around 11x, and a PEG (price/earnings‑to‑growth) ratio far above the sector, which implies the market is already paying for some growth and quality premium. [19]
So the models are saying: “undervalued versus our fair‑value math,” while low‑multiple sector comparisons say “this isn’t obviously cheap.” That tension is exactly what makes pre‑open positioning tricky.
Strategic Backdrop: Capex, Hess and the AI Power Angle
A big piece of Wednesday’s conversation wasn’t new headlines, but investors continuing to digest Chevron’s November investor‑day framework and early‑December capex plan.
2026 Budget: Lower Capex, Same Ambition
On December 3, Chevron announced that its 2026 capital spending will be $18–19 billion, at the low end of previous guidance and about $1 billion below the midpoint of the longer‑term $18–21 billion range through 2030. [20]
Key details from Reuters:
- About $17 billion devoted to upstream, including roughly $9 billion in the United States
- Around $6 billion earmarked for U.S. shale
- About $7 billion for offshore projects in Guyana, the Eastern Mediterranean, and U.S. Gulf of Mexico
- Roughly $1 billion in downstream spend
JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram responded by trimming his 2025 EPS estimate from $7.61 to $7.22 and his 2026 estimate from $8.65 to $5.78, reflecting lower assumed oil and gas prices. But he also called the official 2026 capex guidance “better than expected”, highlighting the company’s discipline in sticking to the lower end of its long‑term range. [21]
Investor‑Day Targets: Cash Flow Through 2030
At its November investor day, Chevron told investors it aims to: [22]
- Grow free cash flow and EPS by more than 10% annually through 2030 (assuming Brent at $70)
- Increase oil and gas production 2–3% per year, from a base of roughly 4.1 million BOE/d
- Trim annual capex to $18–21 billion (down from $19–22 billion prior guidance)
- Deliver $3–4 billion of structural cost reductions by the end of 2026
- Cover both capex and dividend even if Brent sits near $50 per barrel
The plan includes a 50% increase in exploration spending, focused on the Gulf of Mexico, South America, West Africa and the Mediterranean – a long‑dated bet that demand will justify new high‑cost barrels. [23]
Hess Deal: Guyana and More Power for AI
Chevron completed its $55 billion Hess acquisition in July, gaining a ~30% stake in the prolific Stabroek Block in Guyana, with at least 11 billion barrels of estimated oil resources. CEO Mike Wirth has told employees he expects the deal to outperform the company’s publicly stated financial targets, and the company has already raised its 2026 free‑cash‑flow target from $10 billion to $12.5 billion on the back of Hess. [24]
At the same time, Chevron is positioning itself as an energy supplier to AI data centers. The company is working on off‑grid power projects in the U.S. – starting with a natural‑gas‑fired project in West Texas – to feed massive computing clusters without overloading local grids, with a target start‑up around 2027. [25]
This AI‑power angle featured again in Wirth’s December 10 media appearance, where he tied long‑term hydrocarbons demand to the explosion of electricity‑hungry data centers, while reiterating Chevron’s focus on “complementary” low‑carbon technologies such as carbon capture, biofuels and geothermal rather than subsidy‑dependent moonshots. [26]
Fresh Headlines Around the Close: Gulf Leases, Tanker Tensions and Base Oil Prices
Gulf of Mexico Lease Auction: Chevron Among the Big Winners
Late Wednesday, Reuters reported that BP, Woodside and Chevron were among the top winners in the U.S. government’s first Gulf of Mexico oil and gas lease sale since 2023. [27]
Highlights:
- Total high bids came to $279.4 million across 1.02 million acres.
- Chevron submitted 22 high bids, with a total around $33 million.
- The company put down the single highest bid of the auction—about $18.6 million for a block in the Keathley Canyon area.
- Companies bid more per acre than in any Gulf auction since 2017.
This dovetails neatly with Chevron’s strategy of focusing incremental dollars on U.S. Gulf and Guyana offshore, where it sees long‑life, high‑margin barrels.
Venezuela Tanker Seizure: Geopolitics and Heavy‑Crude Supply
Also in the energy news stream: the U.S. seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, carrying about 1.1 million barrels of crude. The move nudged oil prices higher and added a fresh layer of tension to U.S.–Venezuela relations. [28]
While Chevron said its own operations in Venezuela remain unaffected and exports to the U.S. have even increased, the episode underscores:
- How sensitive heavy‑crude flows in the Atlantic basin are to political decisions
- Why integrated majors with diversified supply chains can sometimes benefit when smaller players are squeezed
Short term, this is more a macro oil‑market story than a Chevron‑specific one, but traders will be watching whether further enforcement action affects supply perceptions.
Base Oil Cuts: A Signal on Downstream Margins
A more niche but telling piece of December 10 news: industry publication ChemAnalyst reported that Chevron cut posted prices for U.S. Group II base oils, signalling weaker conditions in lubricants and industrial oils. [29]
Key takeaways:
- Base oil prices were flat in the first trading week of December, but Chevron’s moves point to likely declines later in the month.
- Demand is soft, with a seasonal slowdown in automotive lubricants and weaker manufacturing activity.
- Supply has improved thanks to the restart of Excel Paralubes and additional flows from Asia.
The base‑oil business is small relative to Chevron’s upstream operations, but it’s another reminder that refining and specialty margins are under pressure as the year ends.
The Oil Market Chevron Wakes Up To on December 11
Chevron is tethered to oil prices whether it likes it or not, and the macro setup going into Thursday’s open is complicated.
- WTI crude: around $58.3–58.4 per barrel on December 10, up a fraction of a percent from the prior day. [30]
- Brent crude: trading in the low $62s, also up modestly but still well below recent highs, after a string of declines. [31]
Short‑term commentary from Barchart and Bloomberg points to: [32]
- Persistent oversupply concerns, with the International Energy Agency projecting a possible surplus of around 4 million barrels per day in 2026. [33]
- Ongoing OPEC+ output increases and non‑OPEC supply growth.
- Macro cross‑currents from U.S. monetary policy and a stronger dollar.
The EIA’s latest outlook, calling for Brent to slide toward $55 per barrel in 2026, is still echoing through energy equities. [34]
Chevron’s updated strategy is effectively saying: even if that happens, we can still cover our capex and dividend and grow cash flow over time – but that doesn’t mean the stock will be immune to oil‑price‑driven volatility in the near term. [35]
Leadership Watch: CEO Succession Now on the Radar
On December 9, Reuters reported that CEO Mike Wirth is actively discussing succession with Chevron’s board, noting that he has been in the role since 2018 and does not expect to stay “many more years” beyond a roughly 10‑year tenure. [36]
Key points:
- The board previously waived the mandatory retirement age to retain Wirth.
- Wirth framed his job as preparing the next leader and then “getting out of the way.”
There is no immediate catalyst here, but leadership transitions at supermajors can eventually drive reratings, particularly if investors expect a shift in capital‑allocation priorities (for example, more aggressive buybacks vs. more growth capex, or vice versa).
What All This Means for CVX Before the December 11 Open
Putting it together, here are the main things traders and longer‑term investors are likely to focus on as U.S. markets open on Thursday, December 11, 2025:
- Crude Direction at the Open
- A firm or rising WTI/Brent tape, helped by the Venezuela tanker seizure and Gulf lease optimism, would usually be a tailwind for Chevron. [37]
- Renewed selling on oversupply fears would likely cap or reverse Wednesday’s outperformance.
- Follow‑Through From the Gulf of Mexico Auction
- The market will start to price in what Chevron’s 22 winning bids mean for its long‑term production mix and capex. Offshore projects are capital‑heavy but can deliver stable, high‑margin barrels. [38]
- How Investors Digest Conflicting Research Messages
- Value‑oriented and DCF models saying “undervalued” collide with macro‑cautious takes pointing to oil‑price risk and high sensitivity of EPS to the commodity curve. [39]
- The consensus rating is technically “Hold”, but the distribution of Buy vs Sell ratings and the double‑digit percentage upside to average price targets might keep dip‑buyers interested. [40]
- Dividend and Cash‑Flow Comfort vs. Payout Ratio
- A near‑4.5–4.6% yield is attractive in a choppy macro environment, especially with management explicitly planning around covering the dividend at Brent $50. [41]
- The high payout ratio on some earnings measures, plus lower oil‑price forecasts, will keep income‑focused investors watching for any hint of future dividend policy changes.
- Positioning After a Strong Session
- With CVX now slightly above its 200‑day moving average and Wednesday’s volume elevated, short‑term traders will be alert to profit‑taking near the $152–153 zone or to a possible continuation move if crude cooperates. [42]
- Long‑Term Story: Guyana, AI Power and Cost Cuts
- Longer‑horizon investors will be weighing Wednesday’s swirl of headlines against the bigger arc: Guyana growth via Hess, AI‑driven power demand, and a multi‑year efficiency push aimed at sustaining double‑digit free‑cash‑flow growth even in a lower‑price world. [43]
Bottom Line
After the bell on December 10, Chevron is not a simple “oil goes up, stock goes up” story. The company is:
- Cutting capex a bit, but still betting big on offshore and exploration. [44]
- Integrating a massive Hess acquisition that supercharges its Guyana exposure. [45]
- Positioning itself as a power supplier to AI data centers. [46]
- Leaning on a fat dividend yield to keep patient capital around, even while 2025 share‑price performance looks unexciting. [47]
References
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