New York, Jan 5, 2026, 13:39 EST — Regular session
- Chevron shares rose about 6% as investors priced in possible access to Venezuela’s oil reserves after the Maduro capture.
- Chevron’s existing Venezuela footprint and demand for heavy crude on the U.S. Gulf Coast sharpened the focus on refiners and upstream names.
- The next scheduled catalyst is Chevron’s Jan. 30 earnings call, where investors want clarity on cash returns and Venezuela exposure.
Chevron (CVX) shares rose 5.7% to $164.78 in early afternoon trading on Monday, after swinging between $159.33 and $171.50. ConocoPhillips (COP) gained 3.3% and Exxon Mobil (XOM) added 2.4% as traders rotated into oil names after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and investors bet the move could reshape access to the country’s crude. 1
The rally matters now because Chevron is the only U.S. major still operating in Venezuela under a U.S. waiver — government permission to keep working despite sanctions — leaving it positioned to move faster if policy shifts. Venezuelan barrels are typically “heavy sour” crude, meaning thick oil with higher sulfur that many U.S. Gulf Coast plants are built to process. “This type of crude aligns well with the configuration of U.S. Gulf Coast refineries,” said Ahmad Assiri, a research strategist at Pepperstone. 2
Chevron stayed in the country through joint ventures with state oil company PDVSA and holds stakes of between 25% and 60% in five onshore and offshore projects, a Reuters factbox showed. Ship-tracking data cited by Reuters showed Chevron exported about 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan crude to the U.S. Gulf Coast in November and about 100,000 bpd in December. Foreign firms need U.S. authorizations to plan and operate projects, and Venezuela’s oil exports are currently at a standstill under Washington’s sanctions, the factbox said. 3
Behind the bid was a second wager: a policy reset could also reopen a path for compensation tied to assets seized in Venezuela’s nationalizations. White House and State Department officials have told U.S. oil executives in recent weeks that companies would need to return quickly and commit significant capital to revive the industry if they wanted compensation, Reuters reported; Conoco has sought to recover about $12 billion and Exxon has pursued about $1.65 billion through international arbitration, a legal process that can award compensation in cross-border disputes. 4
Oil prices firmed as markets tried to map how Venezuelan flows might change amid the upheaval. Brent crude futures were up 1.58% at $61.71 a barrel by 12:56 p.m. EDT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) — the main U.S. crude benchmark — gained 1.66% to $58.27, Reuters reported. 5
But analysts caution that turning headlines into higher Venezuelan output will take time: they see a rise of up to 500,000 bpd over the next two years only if the country stabilizes and U.S. companies invest. A bigger ramp would require years, major capital and a workable legal framework, with security and infrastructure concerns still in play. Goldman Sachs said a scenario in which Venezuela climbs to 2 million bpd could shave about $4 a barrel off oil prices by 2030, even as it kept its 2026 average forecasts at $56 for Brent and $52 for WTI. 6
For Chevron, the near-term question is less about immediate barrels and more about what Washington does with licenses and sanctions — and whether any roadmap emerges for financing, security and contractual terms. Until then, crude prices and downstream margins remain the day-to-day drivers that tend to set the tone for big integrated oil stocks.
Chevron said it will hold its quarterly earnings conference call on Friday, Jan. 30 at 11:00 a.m. ET, with Chief Executive Mike Wirth and Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner scheduled to speak. Investors are likely to press the company on how it is managing its Venezuela exposure under existing authorizations and what it would need to expand activity if restrictions change. 7
The next hard date for CVX is that Jan. 30 call — and traders will be listening for any change in how management frames Venezuela risk, potential investment requirements and the pace of any policy-led reopening.
