NEW YORK, Jan 5, 2026, 03:46 ET — Market closed
- Chevron closed up 2.3% at $155.90 on Friday.
- U.S. officials told oil executives they must invest heavily in Venezuela to recover expropriation-era debts, people familiar said.
- Oil prices slipped early Monday despite the Maduro capture, as traders pointed to ample supply and steady OPEC+ output.
Chevron Corp is set to draw attention ahead of Monday’s U.S. session after the White House and State Department told oil executives they would need to invest significant capital in Venezuela if they want to recover debts linked to past asset expropriations, two people familiar with the outreach said. The Dow Jones Industrial Average component ended Friday up 2.3% at $155.90.
The policy push lands after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend and President Donald Trump said American oil companies were prepared to spend billions to restore crude output. Chevron is the only U.S. major still operating in Venezuela’s oil fields, exporting heavy crude used by U.S. Gulf Coast and other refineries under restricted U.S. authorization.
Oil prices started the week lower, signalling traders are focusing on supply buffers rather than immediate disruption risk. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 0.8% to $60.26 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate was down 0.9% to $56.79 at 0752 GMT; OPEC+, the group made up of OPEC and allies such as Russia, agreed on Sunday to maintain output.
Analysts said Venezuela’s current output profile helps explain the muted price response, despite its large resource base. Venezuela averaged about 1.1 million barrels per day last year, around 1% of global production, and holds about 17% of the world’s reserves, according to the Energy Institute, Reuters reported.
Banks are already mapping how a transition could affect longer-dated oil prices — the “back end” of the futures curve, where contracts are priced years out. JPMorgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said Venezuela could raise production to 1.3-1.4 million bpd within two years, while Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven estimated a $4-per-barrel downside to 2030 oil prices in a scenario where output rises to 2 million bpd. Reuters
Chevron’s footprint is small but strategic: it stayed after former president Hugo Chavez tightened state control of the industry two decades ago, while Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips exited and pursued arbitration claims, the people said.
“Chevron is immediately positioned to benefit the most from any potential oil opening in Venezuela,” said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute. Reuters
Even so, the risk ledger is long. Analysts said rebuilding Venezuela’s oil industry would take years and heavy investment, and Trump said the U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil remains in full effect — a constraint that could limit near-term operating flexibility for any company expanding activity.
