China Stock Market Today: Shanghai Composite Rises on Export Beat as Hang Seng Slips Before Fed Cut

BEIJING / HONG KONG – On Monday, December 8, 2025, China’s mainland stock markets extended their 2025 rally while Hong Kong equities lost ground, as traders digested stronger‑than‑expected November export data, fresh regulatory easing for financial firms and growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates again this week. ^[1]

By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was hovering around 3,924 points, up roughly 0.6% on the day after trading between about 3,905 and 3,936, leaving it not far from its 52‑week high near 4,034. ^[2] The blue‑chip CSI 300 Index, which tracks major Shanghai and Shenzhen A‑shares, climbed about 1.2% to roughly 4,639, extending a roughly 17% gain over the past 12 months. ^[3] In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell around 1.3% to about 25,746, giving back part of a powerful year‑to‑date surge that has made it one of the world’s best‑performing major benchmarks in 2025. ^[4]

At the macro level, China’s Politburo pledged to “expand domestic demand” in 2026 with a more proactive fiscal stanceand appropriately loose monetary policy, signalling continued support to maintain a growth target of roughly 5% next year despite persistent property and deflation headwinds. ^[5] That combination of upbeat trade data, incremental policy easing and expectations of a Fed rate cut set the tone for China stock market today.

Snapshot: Key Moves in China Stock Market Today

Shanghai Composite (SSEC): ≈ 3,924, +0.6%
CSI 300: ≈ 4,639, +1.2%, about +17% over 12 months
Hang Seng Index (HSI): ≈ 25,746, –1.3%, still about +30% year‑to‑date ^[6]
Drivers: November export beat, regulatory easing for brokers and insurers, continued rotation from property into equities, and global positioning ahead of an expected Fed cut this week. ^[7]

Mainland China: Financials Lead Gains as Regulators Loosen the Reins

Mainland A‑shares traded higher for most of the session, led by brokerage and insurance stocks after regulators announced a fresh round of measures aimed at freeing up capital for financial firms. ^[8]

According to Reuters, China’s securities regulator (CSRC) signalled it would allow leading financial institutions to operate with more flexible capital and leverage rules, while the insurance regulator lowered risk weights on some equity holdings. The changes effectively reduce capital requirements and give institutions more room to deploy funds into the stock market, a move Goldman Sachs said should draw additional institutional money into equities. ^[9]

In response:

The CSI brokerage and investment banking index jumped about 2.7%.
The insurance sector index gained roughly 1.4%.
Property and banking shares eked out gains of about 0.2%, recovering part of the slide triggered in recent weeks by mounting debt worries at major developer China Vanke. ^[10]

From a technical standpoint, major data platforms classify the Shanghai Composite as a “strong buy” on daily indicators, with the index now well above its 52‑week low near 3,041 and consolidating just below recent resistance around 4,000. ^[11]

The broader CSI 300 has risen nearly 17% over the last 12 months, matching or beating many developed‑market benchmarks, including the S&P 500, and has benefited from rising allocations to industrials, financials and selected tech names. ^[12]

Hong Kong: Hang Seng Slips as Investors Lock In 2025 Gains

While mainland indices climbed, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped about 1.3%, closing near 25,746 after earlier trading above 26,150. ^[13] Reuters and other outlets noted that profit‑taking in high‑beta sectors and caution ahead of this week’s Fed decision weighed on sentiment. ^[14]

Intraday, the Hang Seng Tech Index also edged lower, suggesting that some investors used the recent tech‑led rally to trim risk. ^[15] Even after today’s pullback, however, Hong Kong remains a standout performer:

Hang Seng is up roughly 30% year‑to‑date, on track for its strongest year since 2017. ^[16]
The rebound has been fuelled by AI‑related names, renewed southbound flows from mainland investors, and the perception that Hong Kong valuations remain cheap versus global peers. ^[17]

Strategists caution that after such a sharp move, short‑term volatility is likely—exactly what Monday’s decline reflects—yet many still view the correction as part of an ongoing bull phase rather than the end of the cycle. ^[18]

Macro Backdrop: Export Beat, Trade Rerouting and a Two‑Speed Economy

Today’s trading unfolded against a backdrop of surprisingly strong November export data and continued signs that China’s economy is split between resilient external demand and weak domestic spending.

Exports Outperform, Trade Surplus Tops $1 Trillion

Customs data released Monday showed that exports rose 5.9% year‑on‑year in November, reversing a 1.1% decline in October and beating a Reuters poll that had expected 3.8% growth. ^[19] The headline strength masked a sharp 29% drop in shipments to the United States, where higher tariffs remain a drag. Instead, exporters leaned on:

European Union: exports up about 14.8% year‑on‑year
Australia: exports surging around 35.8%
Southeast Asia (ASEAN): exports up roughly 8.2% ^[20]

Those shifts, together with robust electronics and machinery shipments, pushed the November trade surplus to about $112 billion, the highest since June, and brought the year‑to‑date surplus above $1 trillion for the first time. ^[21]

At the same time, imports rose just 1.9%, missing expectations and underscoring that domestic demand remains soft, particularly in construction‑related sectors like copper. ^[22]

Two‑Speed Economy and Deflation Pressures

Research from Danske Bank describes China as a “two‑speed economy”: external‑facing segments such as exports and tech are still expanding, while household consumption and housing remain subdued. The bank projects growth of 4.9% in 2025 and 4.8% in 2026, close to Beijing’s 5% target but with lingering overcapacity and deflation pressures. ^[23]

A separate Reuters survey of policy advisers suggests that China is likely to keep a 5% GDP growth target in 2026, using a combination of high budget deficits, front‑loaded bond issuance and further monetary easing—including potential rate cuts next year—to escape a multi‑year deflationary spell. ^[24]

In other words, macro policy remains in supportive mode, which is typically positive for equity valuations—but investors are increasingly focused on how that support is deployed (toward households vs. heavy industry), not just on how much stimulus is announced.

Property Slump Still the Weak Link

Despite today’s optimism in financials, property remains the key structural drag on the China stock market.

A recent Reuters poll of economists and analysts indicates that China’s home prices are expected to fall about 3.7% in 2025 and another 2.8% in 2026, with stabilization unlikely before 2027. ^[25] The survey highlights:

Persistent oversupply, especially in smaller cities
Weak household confidence and employment concerns
Authorities’ reluctance to launch massive, sector‑wide bailouts

Fitch Ratings and Capital Economics warn that without stronger action to absorb excess inventory and shore up confidence, prices could fall more than forecast, raising risks of mortgage delinquencies and negative equity for homeowners. ^[26]

For equities, this matters in two ways:

Directly, via pressure on property developers, banks and construction‑related names.
Indirectly, via reduced consumer willingness to spend, which makes Beijing’s goal of a consumption‑led growth model harder to achieve. ^[27]

Policy Signals: Politburo’s 2026 Roadmap and the Fed Factor

Politburo: “More Proactive” Fiscal and “Loose” Monetary Policy

Today’s Politburo meeting gave markets a clearer preview of China’s 2026 playbook. According to state media and Reuters’ summary, top leaders pledged to: ^[28]

“Expand domestic demand”, with domestic demand explicitly described as “taking the lead”;
Maintain a more proactive fiscal policy, implying a budget‑deficit ratio around or above 4% of GDP;
Continue with “appropriately loose” monetary policy, leaving room for additional interest‑rate cuts and targeted liquidity measures;
Shift more policy focus toward household consumption and social welfare over the next five years, even if the transition is gradual.

Beijing is widely expected to formalize an around‑5% growth target for 2026 at the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, after which markets will pay close attention to how much of the fiscal push is directed towards consumers versus state‑led investment. ^[29]

Fed Cut Looms Over Asian Trading

Across Asia, Monday’s session was also shaped by the prospect of another Fed rate cut later this week. Newswires from RTT and the Associated Press noted that Asian shares were mixed, with investors parsing China’s trade numbers while also watching US yields and the dollar for clues on the size and tone of the Fed’s move. ^[30]

A Fed easing cycle tends to:

Support emerging‑market risk assets, including Chinese equities, by lowering global discount rates;
Relieve pressure on the yuan, especially in a scenario where the People’s Bank of China keeps easing more slowly than its Western counterparts. ^[31]

That external backdrop has been one reason why foreign investors have cautiously returned to Chinese stocks in 2025.

2025 Rally: From Deep Pessimism to Cautious Optimism

After several bruising years, China’s equity market has quietly staged a substantial comeback in 2025.

The CSI 300 is up about 16% year‑to‑date.
The Hang Seng Index has gained around 30%, on track for its largest annual rise since 2017. ^[32]

Reuters analysis describes this as a “slow‑motion stock rally” rather than a frenzy: valuations remain below past peaks, foreign holdings are still under their 2021 highs, and fund managers are increasingly favouring industrials and selective tech plays aligned with Beijing’s push for advanced manufacturing and AI. ^[33]

One powerful driver has been a shift in household savings. After years of hoarding cash amid a property slump, Chinese households have begun moving part of their record bank deposits into the stock market. Business Insider reports that Chinese households accumulated roughly 162 trillion yuan (about $22.5 trillion) in savings—almost double 2020 levels—and have been redeploying some of this into equities, helping to fuel the 2025 rally. ^[34]

At the same time, AI and tech optimism—from domestic large‑language models to chip and data‑center plays—has provided a thematic backbone for the rally, especially in Hong Kong where the Hang Seng Tech Index has been a key outperformer. ^[35]

What Major Forecasts Say About China Stocks in 2026

With the year drawing to a close, global houses have started publishing China stock market forecasts for 2026. They are broadly constructive, but expectations are more measured after this year’s outsized gains.

Morgan Stanley: Low Single‑Digit Upside After a “Blistering Rally”

Morgan Stanley, one of the first major Wall Street banks to issue explicit 2026 targets, sees modest gains from current levels: ^[36]

MSCI China: target of 90, implying about 3.4% upside.
Hang Seng Index: 27,500, roughly 3.5% above recent levels.
CSI 300: 4,840, implying around 4.6% potential upside.

Strategists expect earnings growth of about 6% in 2026, accelerating to around 10% in 2027 as China gradually exits deflation, and argue that valuations—around 12–13x forward earnings for MSCI China—leave room for moderate appreciation rather than a new spectacular surge. ^[37]

DBS: “Still a Bull Market” for China and Hong Kong

DBS’s 2026 strategy report characterizes current volatility as “not a threat to the bull run” and raises its 12‑month Hang Seng target to 30,000, implying roughly 16% upside from current levels. ^[38] The bank expects:

Earnings growth to do the heavy lifting;
Some additional room for valuation expansion;
Strong themes in Tech/AI, “anti‑involution” beneficiaries (sectors where supply discipline is improving) and financials that benefit from stable inflows and improving investor confidence. ^[39]

RBC, ING and Others: Trade Truce and AI Support the Medium‑Term Case

RBC Wealth Management highlights the recent one‑year trade truce between China and the US, arguing it should help stabilize export prospects and market sentiment in 2026 after several corrections tied to tariff headlines earlier in the year. ^[40]

ING’s Asia outlook notes that Chinese equities continue to trade below their historical valuation averages, particularly the CSI 300 and Hang Seng, even after this year’s rally—though the Shanghai Composite’s valuation looks more stretched, a reason some analysts warn against fuelling another bubble in “old‑economy” names. ^[41]

Other houses, including T. Rowe Price and several global asset managers, frame 2026 as the start of a new cycle in which AI, green tech and high‑end manufacturing offset drags from traditional property and infrastructure. ^[42]

Consensus Targets and Model‑Based Forecasts

A compilation by Capital Economics of Bloomberg consensus estimates suggests one‑year targets that imply mid‑single to low‑double‑digit gains:

Hang Seng: around 31,000
CSI 300: roughly 5,500

Capital Economics itself is more cautious, stressing that property and deflation risks could cap returns even if headline indices grind higher. ^[43]

Macro‑model forecasts from Trading Economics, meanwhile, see the Shanghai Composite near 3,878 and the CSI 300around 4,478 by the end of the current quarter—levels slightly below or near today’s pricing, consistent with the idea of a market catching its breath after big 2025 gains. ^[44]

Key Themes to Watch for China Stock Market in 2026

For investors tracking China stock market today and thinking about 2026, several themes stand out:

Depth and Direction of Stimulus
- Will fiscal support increasingly target households and services, or remain skewed toward infrastructure and manufacturing? ^[45]
Resolution (or Not) of the Property Slump
- Consensus expects years, not months, before home prices stabilize; any surprise large‑scale property package could be a major catalyst for banks and developers—but policymakers have been reluctant so far. ^[46]
AI and Tech Capital Expenditure
- Beijing continues to prioritize high‑end manufacturing and AI, which should support capex and earnings in semiconductors, industrial automation and cloud infrastructure, but valuations and regulatory risks must be watched. ^[47]
Trade Rerouting and Tariff Dynamics
- Exports are increasingly shifting toward Europe, ASEAN and other non‑US markets, even as high US tariffs bite. Any change—positive or negative—in the tariff regime could quickly ripple through exporter shares. ^[48]
Fed Policy and the Yuan
- A Fed easing cycle combined with moderate PBOC cuts could narrow interest‑rate differentials, relieve pressure on the yuan, and support continued foreign inflows into Chinese assets. ^[49]

Bottom Line

China stock market today reflects a market trying to balance short‑term macro resilience—driven by strong exports and policy support—with long‑running structural challenges in property, demographics and domestic demand.

Mainland indices are grinding higher on the back of financials, industrials and selective tech, supported by a more accommodating regulatory regime.
Hong Kong is digesting a powerful 2025 rebound, with profit‑taking and Fed jitters producing day‑to‑day swings but not yet overturning the broader uptrend.
Forecasters generally see modest further upside in 2026, rather than a repeat of 2025’s blistering rally, as earnings catch up and valuations normalize. ^[50]

As always, equity markets can move quickly and unpredictably. This article is for information and news purposes onlyand does not constitute investment advice. Anyone considering exposure to Chinese stocks should assess their own risk tolerance and, where appropriate, consult a qualified financial adviser.