Cipher Digital shares surge 16% as market bets on future AI leasing earnings ahead of realized revenue

Cipher Digital (NASDAQ:CIFR) Shares Advance Amid AI Capacity Crunch, Leasing Activity Under Spotlight

NEW YORK, July 23, 2026, 11:08 a.m. EDT — U.S. markets have opened.

  • Cipher shares rose 5.7% to $25.85 in late-morning trade. The stock has climbed 44.4% over the past five sessions.
  • Shares of Alphabet Inc. dropped 7.2% following an increase to its capital spending outlook for 2026.
  • Cipher’s market capitalization is roughly 92% of its reported base-term contract revenue, a proportion nearly double that of Hut 8.

Cipher Digital Inc. climbed 5.7% to $25.85 in Thursday morning trade. Shares have advanced roughly 44% over the past five sessions.

The divide in the artificial-intelligence sector was clear. Cipher led Alphabet by almost 13 percentage points over the session.

Alphabet raised its projection for 2026 capital expenditures to a range of $195 billion to $205 billion. Revenue for Google Cloud climbed 82% to $24.8 billion. However, Alphabet posted a negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion.

Alphabet’s finance chief Anat Ashkenazi said, “The demand still outpaces that investment.” The supply shortage strengthens Cipher’s extended leasing approach. Reuters

Google, owned by Alphabet, guarantees Fluidstack’s rental commitments for Cipher’s Barber Lake facility. Meanwhile, an Amazon.com Inc. subsidiary holds a lease on approximately 300 gross megawatts at the Black Pearl project.

Cipher states it has secured contracts for 700 megawatts of high-performance computing capacity. The company projects $11.4 billion in revenue based on its base lease agreements.

The company forecasts an average annualized net operating income of approximately $787 million for the period from October 2026 to September 2036.

With a market capitalization of $10.47 billion as of Thursday, Cipher is valued at approximately 92 cents for every dollar of reported contract revenue. The company’s market cap is also 13.3 times its estimated annualized NOI.

An undiscounted contract-value filter highlights the comparative premium:

CompanyIntraday moveMarket valueDisclosed base-term contract valueMarket value / contract value
Cipher Digital Inc. up 5.7%$10.47 billion$11.4 billion0.92x
Hut 8 Corp. rises 5.9%$12.97 billion$26.6 billion0.49x

Cipher company estimate. Calculations are based on late-morning market data and undiscounted disclosures from the company.

Cipher’s ratio stands at roughly 1.9 times that of Hut 8, indicating investors are valuing each contracted revenue dollar with a higher equity value.

Timing of deliveries could partly account for the difference. Cipher anticipates starting operations at Barber Lake in September, while Black Pearl phases are set to launch in 2026. Hut 8 projects deliveries from its newest lease to start in the second quarter of 2028.

The comparison is restricted. Debt, ongoing construction expenditures, profit margins, and contract length are not included.

Cipher had not begun receiving lease income. As of March 31, none of the three HPC leases had commenced, and the company reported no associated revenue.

Revenue for the first quarter totaled $34.8 million, all generated through bitcoin mining activities. Adjusted EBITDA came in at a negative $48.2 million.

Tyler Page, Chief Executive, described 2026 as “the year of execution for Cipher” in May. The next update for investors is expected before the market opens on August 4. GlobeNewswire

Risks: Delays in construction may result in rent credits or additional tenant remedies. As of March 31, Cipher reported debt principal totaling $5.21 billion. The company held approximately $715 million in unrestricted cash.

The current share price reflects not just finalized contracts but more. Continued increases may depend on realized capacity and confirmed rental income.

Roman Perkowski is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic trends. A graduate of the Cracow University of Economics, he previously worked in investment research and corporate finance. His coverage helps readers understand the key forces driving global financial markets and emerging industries. Follow Roman Perkowski on Google News.

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