NEW YORK, March 2, 2026, 10:55 ET — Regular session
- Circle Internet Group shares swung higher, jumping over 12% in morning trade after initially starting the session in the red.
- Sticky input-cost inflation has investors questioning the outlook on U.S. rate cuts.
- Attention shifts to Friday’s U.S. jobs numbers, with the Fed’s March 17-18 meeting also on the radar.
Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) surged 12.8% to $94.09 early Monday, with shares launching at $80.58 and moving in a range from $80.23 up to $94.61. Roughly 14.1 million shares traded hands so far, putting the company’s market cap close to $19.7 billion.
This shift is notable—Circle’s stock gives traders a rapid-fire gauge on two fronts: stablecoin demand and where U.S. rates might be headed. The New York firm is behind the USDC dollar stablecoin, plus EURC, its euro token.
Interest rates returned to the spotlight, with new data hinting that U.S. inflationary pressures persist. Input costs for manufacturers just hit their highest level in three and a half years, according to a key factory survey, despite a slowdown in broader manufacturing growth.
Here’s Circle’s message, no jargon: its stablecoins aim for a fixed value, with redemption at face value on offer. According to Circle, USDC is “always redeemable 1:1” for U.S. dollars. The company emphasizes its reserves stay separate from daily operations, publishing weekly updates and getting monthly third-party checks. Circle
The setup leaves the stock especially exposed to Fed moves. Circle puts cash from token sales into deposits and short-term Treasuries, collecting yield, Reuters noted after its latest quarterly numbers. “High rates, while, in theory, generate more revenue for us, they really slow down the velocity of money in the economy,” CEO Jeremy Allaire told Reuters. Seaport Research Partners’ Jeff Cantwell added, “USDC continues scaling rapidly.” Reuters
This week, investors face a barrage of U.S. data releases that could shake up rate bets and shift views on businesses tied to cash-like holdings. Reuters’ “Wall Street Week Ahead” points to the February jobs report as the key hurdle coming up—economists are penciling in payroll gains around 60,000. Reuters
The Labor Department plans to release February’s jobs data at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, March 6. The February CPI follows a few days later—set for Wednesday, March 11.
Traders have their eyes on the Fed’s March 17-18 meeting, where officials are set to release updated economic projections.
But there’s plenty of room for the trade to reverse. Should inflation suddenly drop and rate cuts arrive ahead of schedule, Circle’s reserve yields could take a hit—turning the stock’s “rates leverage” from a boost into a headwind. On top of that, weaker stablecoin growth or tighter regulations on issuance and reserves would pile on more risk.
Looking ahead, a few key events are fast approaching: the U.S. payrolls report lands Friday, inflation data hits March 11, and then the Fed makes its call in the middle of March.
