New York, Feb 25, 2026, 16:51 EST — After-hours
- Circle shares surged, finishing the day well above their previous close after the stablecoin issuer beat quarterly revenue estimates.
- The company cited an increase in USDC in circulation, along with stronger income from reserves.
- Investors are weighing rate cuts, regulation, and Circle’s prospects for growth outside of interest income.
Circle Internet Group surged 35.5% Wednesday, finishing the session at $83.14. The move marked a sharp rebound for the stock after a difficult run for crypto-related names. (Barron’s)
Circle stands out as one of the few public stablecoin plays, putting it in focus as investors juggle rate shifts and monitor rapid U.S. policy developments tied to dollar-pegged tokens. That’s why this move resonates right now.
Circle topped Wall Street’s Q4 revenue forecasts, powered by a 72% jump in USDC circulation that padded reserve income. Shares shot up almost 30% by the afternoon following the release. “The key takeaway is that USDC continues scaling rapidly,” said Jeff Cantwell, an analyst at Seaport Research Partners. CEO Jeremy Allaire chimed in, saying more rate cuts would be “welcome,” adding that lower rates could help drive both money velocity and adoption. (Reuters)
Circle posted a 77% jump in total revenue and reserve income for the quarter, with the figure hitting $770 million. Reserve income alone accounted for $733 million. Net income from continuing operations landed at $133 million, while adjusted EBITDA came in at $167 million—a number that excludes interest, taxes, and non-cash items. (Business Wire)
Circle put out its earnings release Wednesday via an 8-K, according to a regulatory filing. (SEC)
Yet several major variables continue to hang over the business. Circle’s revenue has depended heavily on interest from reserves that support USDC, but at the same time, it shells out significant distribution and transaction fees to partners. Competition is only getting fiercer, with Tether and fresh stablecoin players stepping up, according to the Wall Street Journal. (The Wall Street Journal)
Circle is pushing to broaden its narrative. The company’s earnings materials pointed to developments on its Arc blockchain test network, growth of the Circle Payments Network, and a list of fresh or expanded partnerships—including Visa settling using USDC, plus a tie-up with prediction market Polymarket. (Q4 CDN)
Plenty could trip this up. Reserve income takes a hit if rate cuts come faster than anticipated. Missed steps on the regulatory front, a sudden crisis of confidence leading to a wave of redemptions, or changes in how partners split economics—all of that could slam both volumes and margins in one go.
Technicians and fundamental watchers are eyeing the action. MarketWatch flagged a “breakaway gap” right out of the gate, quoting William Blair’s Andrew Jeffrey, who thinks investors “should be long Circle.” Mizuho’s Dan Dolev, for his part, linked the jump to renewed hopes for digital commerce and a push from “AI agents.” (MarketWatch)
Looking to the next session and into the week, traders are eyeing whether the stock keeps its gains, especially with focus swinging to the Federal Reserve’s March 17-18 policy meeting. Fresh jobs data—expected before then—may help steer that outcome. (Federal Reserve)
