NEW YORK, July 24, 2026, 10:09 a.m. EDT
- At 9:54 a.m. EDT, Cleveland-Cliffs stock was up 6.8% at $11.70.
- The company projects third-quarter adjusted EBITDA at approximately $575 million.
- At the shipment threshold, initial calculations of price and costs account for 96.7% of the anticipated rise.
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. NYSE:CLF advanced 6.8% in early Friday trading. U.S. cash markets remained open. The increase brought its two-day rise to 23.8%.
The rally is significant, as the company’s third-quarter profit bridge relies primarily on per-ton figures. Nearly the entire expected sequential increase is attributed to shifts in price and cost.
Shipments must increase by a minimum of 6.8% compared to the previous quarter. Management expects pricing for almost every ton slated for the period.
Cliffs projects adjusted EBITDA to be close to $575 million, representing a sequential increase of $289 million. The company forecast shipments topping 4.3 million tons. Average prices are anticipated to increase by $55 per ton, with unit costs expected to decrease by $10.
The following outlines the reported trajectory alongside management’s perspective:
| Measure | Q1 2026 actual | Q2 2026 actual | Q3 2026 outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | $95 million | $286 million | Approximately $575 million |
| Steel shipments | 4.108 million tons | 4.025 million tons | More than 4.3 million tons |
| Average selling price | $1,048 per ton | $1,124 per ton | Roughly $1,179 per ton* |
Initial calculation based on management’s $55-per-ton sequential outlook; this is not an official reported figure.
When output reaches 4.3 million tons, the rise in price amounts to $236.5 million. A reduction in costs contributes a further $43 million. Combined, these factors account for 96.7% of the anticipated EBITDA growth.
This is not a comprehensive earnings model, as it omits factors such as product mix, raw materials, outages, and non-steel operations.
The same trend continued in the second quarter. Shipments declined by 2% compared to the previous quarter, but selling prices increased by $76 per ton. Adjusted EBITDA surged, reaching $286 million, triple the previous figure.
Changes among peers were limited. Nucor Corp. NYSE:NUE gained 0.6%, and Steel Dynamics Inc. NASDAQ:STLD edged down 0.1%. The moves pointed to a repricing driven by factors specific to the company.
Cleveland-Cliffs reported revenue of $5.23 billion for the second quarter. The company recorded a GAAP net loss of $134 million. Operating cash flow totaled $230 million, and liquidity stood at $3.1 billion.
Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves said, “We returned to positive free cash flow during Q2 and have begun reducing our debt.” Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.
The balance sheet remains tight. Operations in the first half consumed $95 million in cash, and capital expenditures accounted for $309 million. Long-term debt increased by $450 million since year-end, reaching $7.70 billion.
Wells Fargo NYSE:WFC increased its price target to $11 from $9 on Friday, maintaining its Market Perform rating. Cliffs was trading 6.4% higher than that target and 2.5% above the $11.42 analyst average.
Steel pricing, auto sector demand, and fluctuations in working capital continue to pose risks. Any postponement of scheduled property sales could hinder the pace of debt reduction.
The investor test is now stricter. Cliffs needs to achieve the pledged per-ton improvements and turn those into cash flow. With shares trading above new targets, there is less tolerance for setbacks.
