Toronto, Jan 5, 2026, 14:37 (ET) — Regular session
- CNQ shares fell about 5% in New York; the Toronto listing was down roughly 8% earlier in the session.
- Investors repriced heavy-crude producers after the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro.
- Focus turns to U.S. policy on Venezuelan oil flows and CNQ’s next quarterly results.
Shares of Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ.TO) (CNQ.N) fell 5.2% to $32.53 in New York afternoon trading on Monday as investors weighed the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. In early Toronto trade, the stock slid about 8% to C$43.33, while Cenovus Energy lost about 8.7% and Suncor fell to C$59.08, according to The Canadian Press. 1
The Venezuela shock hit on the first full trading day of the year, when positioning is thin and investors often reset sector bets. For Canadian oil sands names, the concern is straightforward: Venezuelan heavy crude competes for the same U.S. refining demand that absorbs much of Canada’s barrels.
U.S. refiners and some oil majors moved the other way as traders focused on what a shift in Venezuelan flows could mean for the Gulf Coast, Reuters reported. “This type of crude aligns well with the configuration of U.S. Gulf Coast refineries,” said Ahmad Assiri, a research strategist at Pepperstone. 2
Oil prices also firmed as the market tried to map the supply implications. Brent was up 1.58% at $61.71 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 1.66% to $58.27 by 12:56 p.m. EDT, Reuters reported, even as President Donald Trump said the U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil exports would stay in place for now. OPEC+ — the producer group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia — kept output steady on Sunday, and Venezuelan output averaged about 1 million barrels per day last year, Reuters said. 3
For Canadian producers, the key variable is the “differential,” the discount heavy oil sells at versus lighter benchmarks. Heavy sour crude — denser oil with higher sulfur — typically earns a lower price because it requires more complex refining.
Canadian Natural is a major producer of oil sands and other heavy barrels, so changes in heavy-crude supply can matter as much as moves in headline oil futures. A wider discount squeezes realized prices even when crude benchmarks are rising.
But the downside case hinges on politics and logistics moving faster than the market expects. If Washington tightens enforcement or keeps the embargo intact, and Venezuela cannot quickly restore exports, the heavy-crude discount may not widen for long.
Traders are watching for any explicit shift in U.S. sanctions or carve-outs that would allow more Venezuelan crude to move legally, and for real-time signals in heavy-grade pricing. In the meantime, CNQ tends to trade as a proxy for how investors see North American heavy oil supply shaping up.
Canadian Natural is due to pay a quarterly dividend of C$0.5875 a share on Jan. 6, the company said. 4
