BOGOTÁ, August 24, 2026, 18:55 COT
- Initial estimates put earthquake damage at COP30 trillion, equivalent to roughly $9.58 billion.
- Colombia’s 10-year yield has increased roughly 30 basis points since August 14.
- The peso is still about 2.1% higher compared to where it stood on August 17.
- Colombia’s dollar revenues have been cushioned by steady coffee export levels.
Colombia’s earthquake cost is now reflected more in bonds than in its currency. This gap is significant since rebuilding efforts begin as public finances remain under strain.
The government’s initial estimate for losses from COP30 trillion translates to around $9.58 billion. This represents about 2.1% of Colombia’s projected 2025 nominal GDP, based on the most recent World Bank GDP series.
The yield on Colombia’s 10-year bond ended Monday at 12.126%, up 29.9 basis points since August 14. The peso, meanwhile, has gained around 2.1% versus the dollar since August 17, even after slipping 0.7% on Monday.
The division sends a message to investors. Elevated local rates are still backing the peso. The more complex issue for bonds is determining the source of funds for reconstruction.
| Measure | Latest reading | Investor meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Total preliminary damage | COP30tn / $9.58bn | Roughly 2.1% of 2025 GDP |
| Buildings | COP24.5tn | Biggest reconstruction demand |
| Infrastructure | COP5.5tn | Risks added to state investment |
| 10-year government yield | 12.126% on Aug. 24 | Risen 29.9 bps from Aug. 14 |
| USD/COP | 3,067.12 on Aug. 24 | Peso is about 2.1% firmer than on Aug. 17 |
President Abelardo De La Espriella described the estimate as an initial figure. “Just imagine the scale of the disaster,” he stated during the announcement. Buildings represent COP24.5 trillion of the losses, while infrastructure accounts for COP5.5 trillion. Reuters
The impact will be unevenly distributed. Gallagher Re projected insured losses ranging from the low to mid-single-digit billions of dollars. Limited insurance coverage close to the epicentre means households, commercial entities, and the government will absorb a large share of the uninsured costs.
Concerns about a major export disruption have subsided. Colombia’s coffee federation reported that output remained mostly unaffected. Buenaventura—which accounts for around 60% of coffee exports—continued functioning without interruption. El Niño poses a greater threat to the harvest than the earthquake.
This supports the currency’s strength. Consistent exports sustain dollar inflows. Colombia’s policy rate, set at 12%, ensures a notable carry, and July’s inflation rate stood at 6.03%.
Colombia faces tight fiscal constraints. In 2025, the central government posted a deficit of COP117.8 trillion, representing 6.4% of GDP, while gross debt climbed to 64.4% of GDP. The estimated cost of the earthquake is about one-fourth of that year’s deficit.
Multilateral funding could ease the early impact. The government has tapped a $200 million World Bank facility, but this represents just 2% of the projected initial losses. Domestic resources and fiscal decisions remain key for the following phase.
This week, investors need to monitor three key issues: the composition of financing, revised damage evaluations, and potential interruptions at Pacific transport routes. A realistic long-term strategy may help limit yields, while significant issuance in the short term could push them higher.
Risks: Damage costs could increase. Additional aftershocks, limited insurance coverage, or further port disruption may impact growth, fiscal balances and the peso simultaneously.
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